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Smirnykh Storms 8, Ola Knights 7                            2046-04-23 · #1013
at Hyyrynen Park
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                        1    R    H    E
Ola                     7    7    7    0
Smirnykh                8    8    4    0

OLA KNIGHTS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Pogorelova  2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Gasanova    p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Ju          c  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Biryuko cf ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Ávalos  ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
  c-Viera   lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  d-Muzaev  ph ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Wattel  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Fedorov pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Freedma ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  h-Potapov ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Marchenko   j  ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Sumarokov-E j  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   7   7   3   0   0   5   4  10   0   0  0.241
  2B: Biryukov (2), Marchenko (8), Muzaev (3).
  HBP: Sumarokov-Elston (2), Wattel (2).
  GIDP: Wattel (2), Fedorova (1).
  a-Entered at CF in the 3rd.
  b-Entered at SS in the 7th.
  c-Entered at LF in the 7th.
  d-Doubled in the 1st.
  e-Batted in the 2nd.
  f-Ran for Biryukov in the 3rd.
  g-Batted in the 3rd.
  h-Batted for Muzaev in the 4th.

SMIRNYKH STORMS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Ionov       2b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  a-Tcherne pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Youzhny     ss ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Lazareva    3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Jonesov     c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Chang   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Vatutin     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Vatutin     cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Pervak  pr ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Mykolenko   rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Fuimaono    1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Su      ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  e-Coonin  cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Simakin ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  g-Reyes   c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  h-Mykhayl ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Gormanov    j  ......    3   2   2   0   0   1   2   1   0   0   0  0.667
Amini       j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
Totals                  26   8   4   1   0   1   4   6  12   0   0  0.154
  2B: Pervak (1).
  HR: Gormanov (2), off Nam.
  SB: Tchernenko (1).
  HBP: Ionov (1), Simakin (1).
  GIDP: Fuimaono (1).
  a-Ran for Ionov in the 1st.
  b-Ran for Jonesov in the 2nd.
  c-Ran for Vatutin in the 2nd.
  d-Batted in the 3rd.
  e-Replaced Amini at CF in the 4th.
  f-Was hit by a pitch in the 6th.
  g-Entered at C in the 7th.
  h-Grounded out for Coonin in the 7th.

OLA KNIGHTS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Gasanova ............     7    4  15%    1    2    2    2    3    0   29    -
Nam (L, 1-1) ........    15   14  52%    3    3    3    1    5    1   66  1-1
Chadwick ............    11    9  33%    0    3    2    3    4    0   43  1-1

SMIRNYKH STORMS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Kamenskaya ..........     8    4  15%    3    3    3    1    1    0   32    -
Ozdoyev .............    10    8  30%    1    2    2    1    4    0   39  2-1
Pridankina (W, 1-2) .    15   14  52%    2    2    2    2    4    0   50  2-1
Handin ..............     1    1   4%    0    0    0    0    1    0    3  1-0

  Batting order: Smirnykh Storms (home) batted first; Ola Knights batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM. Weather: 78°F · Wind cross · Overcast. seed 45958.
  Walk-Back runs: off Chadwick 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 4 Tommy Amini Nikolay Tchernenko (3B) 0–1
B 4 Tommy Amini Talib Chang (2B) 0–2
B 8 Terrance Gormanov Tommy Amini (3B) 0–3
B 17 Jianhua Su Yuri Pervak (3B) 0–4
B 18 Terrance Gormanov Terrance Gormanov (HR) 0–5
B 19 Tommy Amini Terrance Gormanov (3B) 0–6
B 20 Roman Mykhaylichenko Vladislav Youzhny (3B) 0–7
B 22 Yuri Pervak Alen Lazareva (3B) 0–8
T 2 Matvei Muzaev Mykhailo Marchenko (3B) 1–8
T 2 Matvei Muzaev Mykhailo Marchenko (3B) 2–8
T 4 Stanislav Biryukov Matvei Muzaev (2B) 3–8
T 7 Yaroslav Sumarokov-Elston Hyeon-woo Ju (3B) 4–8
T 11 Hyeon-woo Ju Yaroslav Sumarokov-Elston (2B) 5–8
T 19 Jean Viera Alex Fedorova (3B) 6–8
T 25 Mykhailo Marchenko Earthna Freedman (3B) 7–8
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Hyyrynen Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 307' · CF 355' · RF 279' · 48' wall). The Bandbox.
Wire Basket
Ola Knights — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
307' 355' 279' Wall 48' Jean Viera — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -3° · 50 ft Matvei Muzaev — double · EV 92 mph · LA +27° · 273 ft Savriyan Pogorelova — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +23° · 180 ft Hyeon-woo Ju — fielders_choice · EV 53 mph · LA -0° · 50 ft Stanislav Biryukov — double · EV 92 mph · LA +31° · 299 ft Alex Fedorova — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Mykhailo Marchenko — double · EV 98 mph · LA +30° · 327 ft Jean Viera — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 142 ft Savriyan Pogorelova — fly_out · EV 66 mph · LA +36° · 165 ft Hyeon-woo Ju — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 174 ft Jonathan Wattel — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +8° · 49 ft Stepan Potapova — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +12° · 60 ft Rómulo Ávalos — single · EV 76 mph · LA -4° · 72 ft Jean Viera — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +29° · 197 ft Savriyan Pogorelova — single · EV 81 mph · LA -14° · 77 ft Hyeon-woo Ju — fly_out · EV 72 mph · LA +44° · 209 ft
Smirnykh Storms — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
307' 355' 279' Wall 48' Tommy Amini — single · EV 86 mph · LA +19° · 182 ft Samson Fuimaono — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA +7° · 84 ft Jianhua Su — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA +5° · 65 ft Terrance Gormanov — single · EV 93 mph · LA -10° · 89 ft Rhyne Coonin — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA +1° · 88 ft Yuri Pervak — double · EV 96 mph · LA +23° · 265 ft Tommy Amini — ground_out · EV 91 mph · LA -6° · 86 ft Samson Fuimaono — double_play · EV 73 mph · LA -7° · 70 ft Terrance Gormanov — hr · EV 102 mph · LA +29° · 352 ft Tommy Amini — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +14° · 130 ft Samson Fuimaono — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Terrance Gormanov — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -13° · 85 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Ola Knights
31% deserve-to-win  ·  3.9 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +3.1 vs expected
contact: 6.3 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+2.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Matvei Muzaev 92 / +27° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Stanislav Biryukov 92 / +31° Oppo Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Mykhailo Marchenko 98 / +30° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.83
Rómulo Ávalos 76 / -4° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Savriyan Pogorelova 81 / -14° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.65
Smirnykh Storms
69% deserve-to-win  ·  5.8 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +2.2 vs expected
contact: 7.0 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (+1.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Terrance Gormanov 102 / +29° Oppo Home Run 1.4 → 4 +2.57
Yuri Pervak 96 / +23° Pull Double 1.3 → 2 +0.68
Tommy Amini 83 / +14° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Terrance Gormanov 93 / -10° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.55
Terrance Gormanov 90 / -13° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.45
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