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Smirnykh Glassworks 33, Casablanca Elk 17                   2046-04-23 · #1047
at Tide Yards
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Smirnykh               33      -   33   25    0
Casablanca             17      0   17   17    1

SMIRNYKH GLASSWORKS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Glimakova   lf ......    3   3   3   2   0   0   3   2   0   0   0  1.000
Yadav       p  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   3   0   1  0.250
Bellov      2b ......    5   3   3   2   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.600
Guskova     rf ......    4   7   4   1   0   2   8   2   0   1   0  1.000
Youzhny     1b ......    4   4   1   0   0   1   3   1   0   0   0  0.250
Hirai       c  ......    5   4   4   2   0   1   6   0   1   0   0  0.800
Toumi       cf ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Cherkasov   3b ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.333
  a-Feist   lf ......    3   4   3   2   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  1.000
Semenenko   j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Tkacheva    j  ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.500
Bykov       j  ......    2   1   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  41  33  25  12   0   5  30   8   5   1   2  0.610
  2B: Glimakova 2 (12), Feist 2 (4), Bellov 2 (14), Guskova (9), Hirai 2 (13), Toumi (6), Bykov 2 (15).
  HR: Guskova 2 (7), off Odera, Gattuso; Youzhny (7), off Martínez; Hirai (4), off Moyo; Tkacheva (4), off Stoll.
  CS: Glimakova 2 (5), Bellov (6), Toumi 2 (4).
  HBP: Toumi (2), Cherkasov (3).
  Squeeze: Cherkasov.
  a-Entered at LF in the 7th.

CASABLANCA ELK
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cherif      ss ......    4   5   4   1   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Strydom     c  ......    4   3   3   1   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  0.750
Kassim      1b ......    4   2   2   0   0   1   3   0   2   0   0  0.500
Mezui       lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Moukoko     rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Mthembu     3b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.333
Chávez      cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Nel         2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Mfeka       p  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
Demissie    j  ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Russo       j  ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   1   0  0.500
Mpasi       j  ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  40  17  17   4   0   3  16   2  11   1   0  0.425
  2B: Cherif (7), Strydom (11), Mthembu (2), Mfeka (1).
  HR: Cherif (3), off Yadav; Strydom (3), off Klose; Kassim (1), off Klose.
  SB: Demissie (4).
  CS: Strydom (2), Demissie (5).
  E: Russo (3).
  HBP: Mezui (2).


SMIRNYKH GLASSWORKS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Yadav ...............     7    3  11%    2    2    1    0    1    1   22    -
Church ..............     4    2   7%    2    2    2    0    1    0   13  2-2
Reddick .............     4    1   4%    2    4    4    1    1    0    9  2-2
Klose ...............     4    0   0%    4    6    4    0    0    2   22  1-1
Weber (W, 5-0) ......    14   15  56%    4    1    1    0    6    0   53  1-0
Lutrova .............     9    6  22%    3    2    2    1    2    0   26    -

CASABLANCA ELK PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Mfeka (L, 2-1) ......    10    6  22%    3    4    4    4    2    0   50    -
Moyo ................     4    1   4%    3    4    3    1    0    1   14  1-1
Odera ...............     4    2   7%    4    5    4    0    0    1   11  1-1
Martínez ............     4    1   4%    3    4    3    0    0    1   12  1-1
Stoll ...............     4    1   4%    2    4    3    0    0    1   16  1-1
Gattuso .............     4    0   0%    3    4    4    1    0    1   17  1-1
Olivier .............     4    0   0%    2    4    4    1    0    0   17  2-2
Mandžukić ...........    10    7  26%    4    4    4    1    2    0   33  2-1
Tekle ...............     6    7  26%    1    0    0    0    1    0   24  1-0

  Batting order: Casablanca Elk (home) batted first; Smirnykh Glassworks batted second.
  Seconds: SG o25 (33-17), CE o25 (17-0).
  First pitch 7:10 PM. Weather: 84°F · Wind out · Clear · Dry. seed 323172.
  Walk-Back runs: off Yadav 1, off Klose 2, off Moyo 1, off Odera 1, off Martínez 1, off Stoll 1, off Olivier 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Massinissa Cherif Massinissa Cherif (HR) 0–1
B 0 Wynand Strydom Massinissa Cherif (3B) 0–2
B 2 Lemma Demissie Wynand Strydom (2B) 0–3
B 3 Hamari Mpasi Adeola Mezui (2B) 0–4
B 3 Sikhumbuzo Mthembu Lemma Demissie (3B) 0–5
B 3 Sikhumbuzo Mthembu Hamari Mpasi (1B) 0–6
B 4 Aaron Mfeka Sikhumbuzo Mthembu (2B) 0–7
B 4 Aaron Mfeka Gleyber Chávez (1B) 0–8
B 4 Massinissa Cherif Aaron Mfeka (2B) 0–9
B 4 Wynand Strydom Massinissa Cherif (2B) 0–10
B 4 Wynand Strydom Wynand Strydom (HR) 0–11
B 4 Haile Kassim Wynand Strydom (3B) 0–12
B 4 Haile Kassim Haile Kassim (HR) 0–13
B 4 Adeola Mezui Haile Kassim (3B) 0–14
B 17 Leonardo Russo Massinissa Cherif (2B) 0–15
B 23 Massinissa Cherif Hamari Mpasi (2B) 0–16
B 23 Haile Kassim Massinissa Cherif (2B) 0–17
T 1 Alen Glimakova Daniil Guskova (1B) 1–17
T 6 Daniil Guskova Oussama Toumi (3B) 2–17
T 6 Daniil Guskova Cole Feist (2B) 3–17
T 6 Daniil Guskova Sasha Bellov (1B) 4–17
T 6 Alen Glimakova Daniil Guskova (1B) 5–17
T 7 Jun Hirai Rifat Youzhny (1B) 6–17
T 7 Jun Hirai Jun Hirai (HR) 7–17
T 7 Oussama Toumi Jun Hirai (3B) 8–17
T 8 Akash Yadav Oussama Toumi (3B) 9–17
T 9 Sasha Bellov Cole Feist (3B) 10–17
T 9 Daniil Guskova Sasha Bellov (2B) 11–17
T 9 Daniil Guskova Daniil Guskova (HR) 12–17
T 9 Alen Glimakova Daniil Guskova (3B) 13–17
T 9 Rifat Youzhny Alen Glimakova (1B) 14–17
T 9 Rifat Youzhny Rifat Youzhny (HR) 15–17
T 9 Jun Hirai Rifat Youzhny (3B) 16–17
T 10 Cole Feist Jun Hirai (2B) 17–17
T 11 Alibek Tkacheva Cole Feist (3B) 18–17
T 11 Alibek Tkacheva Teymuraz Cherkasov (1B) 19–17
T 11 Alibek Tkacheva Alibek Tkacheva (HR) 20–17
T 11 Maksim Bykov Alibek Tkacheva (3B) 21–17
T 11 Akash Yadav Maksim Bykov (2B) 22–17
T 11 Daniil Guskova Akash Yadav (2B) 23–17
T 11 Daniil Guskova Sasha Bellov (1B) 24–17
T 11 Daniil Guskova Daniil Guskova (HR) 25–17
T 11 Rifat Youzhny Daniil Guskova (3B) 26–17
T 11 Jun Hirai Alen Glimakova (3B) 27–17
T 11 Oussama Toumi Rifat Youzhny (3B) 28–17
T 11 Cole Feist Jun Hirai (3B) 29–17
T 14 Maksim Bykov Cole Feist (3B) 30–17
T 14 Maksim Bykov Teymuraz Cherkasov (2B) 31–17
T 18 Jun Hirai Daniil Guskova (2B) 32–17
T 18 Jun Hirai Alen Glimakova (1B) 33–17
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Tide Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 303' · CF 418' · RF 353' · 32' wall). Short Porch (Left).
Flag Pole in Play
Smirnykh Glassworks — Batted Balls
33 BIP· 8 1B · 12 XBH · 5 HR
303' 418' 353' Wall 32' Sasha Bellov — double · EV 88 mph · LA +17° · 171 ft Alen Glimakova — double · EV 99 mph · LA +40° · 385 ft Daniil Guskova — double · EV 96 mph · LA +41° · 364 ft Oussama Toumi — double · EV 97 mph · LA +39° · 367 ft Cole Feist — single · EV 87 mph · LA +21° · 205 ft Alibek Tkacheva — hr · EV 114 mph · LA +35° · 480 ft Maksim Bykov — double · EV 118 mph · LA +14° · 255 ft Daniil Guskova — hr · EV 101 mph · LA +49° · 401 ft Alen Glimakova — double · EV 87 mph · LA +43° · 300 ft Jun Hirai — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +49° · 480 ft Sasha Bellov — double · EV 103 mph · LA +32° · 375 ft Rifat Youzhny — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +41° · 480 ft Oussama Toumi — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +6° · 86 ft Cole Feist — double · EV 99 mph · LA +27° · 321 ft Akash Yadav — single · EV 88 mph · LA +8° · 84 ft Daniil Guskova — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +44° · 480 ft Teymuraz Cherkasov — single · EV 87 mph · LA +19° · 189 ft Eduard Semenenko — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA -0° · 67 ft Maksim Bykov — double · EV 93 mph · LA +44° · 346 ft Alen Glimakova — single · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 185 ft Jun Hirai — single · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 125 ft Sasha Bellov — single · EV 99 mph · LA +21° · 257 ft Rifat Youzhny — error · EV 94 mph · LA +11° · 135 ft Oussama Toumi — single · EV 95 mph · LA +25° · 274 ft Daniil Guskova — single · EV 119 mph · LA +11° · 220 ft Cole Feist — double · EV 104 mph · LA +38° · 418 ft Teymuraz Cherkasov — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +27° · 189 ft Jun Hirai — double · EV 104 mph · LA +19° · 263 ft Sasha Bellov — fly_out · EV 93 mph · LA +38° · 333 ft Rifat Youzhny — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +32° · 347 ft Oussama Toumi — fielders_choice · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 100 ft Jun Hirai — double · EV 88 mph · LA +15° · 154 ft Sasha Bellov — fly_out · EV 114 mph · LA +22° · 357 ft
Casablanca Elk — Batted Balls
27 BIP· 10 1B · 4 XBH · 3 HR
303' 418' 353' Wall 32' Massinissa Cherif — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +27° · 454 ft Wynand Strydom — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 201 ft Lemma Demissie — single · EV 108 mph · LA +4° · 102 ft Hamari Mpasi — single · EV 93 mph · LA +17° · 197 ft Sikhumbuzo Mthembu — double · EV 106 mph · LA +35° · 426 ft Aaron Mfeka — double · EV 90 mph · LA +13° · 142 ft Adeola Mezui — single · EV 100 mph · LA -9° · 95 ft Gleyber Chávez — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +30° · 239 ft Massinissa Cherif — double · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 280 ft Wynand Strydom — hr · EV 106 mph · LA +41° · 448 ft Haile Kassim — hr · EV 115 mph · LA +34° · 480 ft Lemma Demissie — single · EV 97 mph · LA -3° · 92 ft Leonardo Russo — single · EV 86 mph · LA +6° · 82 ft Faf Nel — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +36° · 253 ft Gleyber Chávez — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -4° · 77 ft Massinissa Cherif — single · EV 119 mph · LA -4° · 113 ft Wynand Strydom — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +42° · 273 ft Lemma Demissie — fielders_choice · EV 90 mph · LA -6° · 85 ft Leonardo Russo — single · EV 85 mph · LA +25° · 222 ft Aaron Mfeka — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +16° · 149 ft Adeola Mezui — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -20° · 88 ft Massinissa Cherif — single · EV 96 mph · LA +14° · 168 ft Wynand Strydom — single · EV 95 mph · LA +20° · 228 ft Haile Kassim — single · EV 84 mph · LA +5° · 80 ft Maodo Moukoko — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft Lemma Demissie — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -12° · 73 ft Leonardo Russo — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 130 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Smirnykh Glassworks
75% deserve-to-win  ·  23.8 expected runs
actual 33 runs  ·  +9.2 vs expected
contact: 45.5 est bases + 10 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 51.0 (+5.5 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 5 CS (-3.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Daniil Guskova 101 / +49° Pull Home Run 0.9 → 4 +3.11
Jun Hirai 119 / +49° Pull Home Run 1.7 → 4 +2.34
Sasha Bellov 114 / +22° Pull Out 1.7 → 0 -1.73
Jun Hirai 88 / +15° Oppo Double 0.6 → 2 +1.39
Alen Glimakova 87 / +43° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.35
Casablanca Elk
25% deserve-to-win  ·  13.6 expected runs
actual 17 runs  ·  +3.4 vs expected
contact: 28.6 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 30.0 (+1.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-1.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Aaron Mfeka 90 / +13° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Sikhumbuzo Mthembu 106 / +35° Center Double 3.0 → 2 -1.03
Massinissa Cherif 119 / +27° Oppo Home Run 3.0 → 4 +0.97
Wynand Strydom 100 / +15° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.74
Aaron Mfeka 83 / +16° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.71
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