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Prague Boars 14, Zagreb Miners 12                           2046-04-23 · #1051
at The Pavilion
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                        1    R    H    E
Prague                 14   14   16    0
Zagreb                 12   12   15    0

PRAGUE BOARS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Fagioli     lf ......    3   4   2   0   0   2   4   1   0   0   0  0.667
Barišić     1b ......    4   2   2   2   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.500
Gülich      ss ......    4   1   4   3   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Calathes    cf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
  a-Kanouté pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Féliz       c  ......    3   1   1   0   1   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Scott       rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Moukoko     2b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Anyomi      3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  b-Buffon  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Rami        p  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Jenyat      j  ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Bella-Kotch j  ......    4   2   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.500
Totals                  35  14  16   6   1   2  14   5  11   0   0  0.457
  2B: Barišić 2 (4), Gülich 3 (5), Moukoko (1).
  3B: Féliz (1).
  HR: Fagioli 2 (2), off Sobhi, Atal.
  CS: Gülich (3).
  HBP: Anyomi (2).
  a-Ran for Calathes in the 9th.
  b-Ran for Anyomi in the 2nd.

ZAGREB MINERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Lovren      2b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Fitzgerald  cf ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.667
Diouf       rf ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Larentzakis lf ......    4   3   4   1   0   1   5   0   0   0   0  1.000
Ambri       ss ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Mazza       3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Robinett    1b ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Sobhi       p  ......    3   3   3   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Hakimi  c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Burley      j  ......    4   2   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  35  12  15   6   0   1  12   4   5   0   0  0.429
  2B: Fitzgerald (6), Larentzakis (12), Burley 2 (13), Robinett (2), Sobhi (1).
  HR: Larentzakis (7), off Rami.
  GIDP: Lovren (2).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

PRAGUE BOARS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Rami ................    11    7  26%    5    4    4    2    1    1   35    -
Bianchi .............    10    7  26%    5    3    3    1    1    0   33  1-0
Schmid (W, 1-1) .....    10    7  26%    3    2    2    0    0    0   34  1-0
Gülich ..............     4    3  11%    2    2    2    0    1    0   21  2-2
Marozsán ............     4    3  11%    0    1    1    1    2    0   13  1-1

ZAGREB MINERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Sobhi ...............    13    6  22%    8    7    6    2    1    1   48    -
Atal (L, 2-1) .......    14    8  30%    6    7    7    1    5    1   55  1-1
Brunckhorst .........    14   13  48%    2    0    0    2    5    0   47  1-0

  Batting order: Zagreb Miners (home) batted second; Prague Boars batted first.
  First pitch 6:00 PM. Weather: 57°F · Wind cross · Overcast · Humid. seed 437707.
  Walk-Back runs: off Sobhi 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 0 Carlo Fagioli Carlo Fagioli (HR) 1–0
T 0 Ivica Barišić Carlo Fagioli (3B) 2–0
T 0 Wajdi Jenyat Ivica Barišić (2B) 3–0
T 2 Sokratis Calathes Niclas Bella-Kotchap (3B) 4–0
T 4 Julien Rami Sokratis Calathes (3B) 5–0
T 6 Ivica Barišić Julien Rami (2B) 6–0
T 6 Ivica Barišić Carlo Fagioli (1B) 7–0
T 8 Peter Gülich Ivica Barišić (2B) 8–0
T 9 Néstor Féliz Peter Gülich (2B) 9–0
T 10 Alexander Moukoko Néstor Féliz (3B) 10–0
T 11 Carlo Fagioli Alexander Moukoko (2B) 11–0
T 11 Carlo Fagioli Benedetto Buffon (1B) 12–0
T 11 Carlo Fagioli Carlo Fagioli (HR) 13–0
T 14 Peter Gülich Niclas Bella-Kotchap (2B) 14–0
B 1 Vincenzo Diouf Panagiotis Larentzakis (3B) 14–1
B 7 Magdy Sobhi Hélio Ambri (3B) 14–2
B 7 Panagiotis Larentzakis Magdy Sobhi (2B) 14–3
B 7 Panagiotis Larentzakis Panagiotis Larentzakis (HR) 14–4
B 13 Geoff Burley Vincenzo Diouf (2B) 14–5
B 14 Panagiotis Larentzakis Geoff Burley (3B) 14–6
B 14 Panagiotis Larentzakis Magdy Sobhi (1B) 14–7
B 21 Geoff Burley Mateo Lovren (2B) 14–8
B 21 Panagiotis Larentzakis Geoff Burley (3B) 14–9
B 21 Toni Fitzgerald Panagiotis Larentzakis (1B) 14–10
B 21 Rachid Hakimi Magdy Sobhi (3B) 14–11
B 26 Joshua Robinett Rachid Hakimi (2B) 14–12
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Pavilion's actual outfield dimensions (LF 396' · CF 403' · RF 258' · 50' wall). Coffin Corner.
Trolley Shed
Prague Boars — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 7 1B · 7 XBH · 2 HR
396' 403' 258' Wall 50' Carlo Fagioli — hr · EV 114 mph · LA +43° · 480 ft Ivica Barišić — double · EV 96 mph · LA +16° · 200 ft Wajdi Jenyat — single · EV 85 mph · LA +20° · 188 ft Niclas Bella-Kotchap — single · EV 94 mph · LA +10° · 115 ft Peter Gülich — single · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 158 ft Sokratis Calathes — single · EV 100 mph · LA -10° · 95 ft Julien Rami — single · EV 84 mph · LA +11° · 102 ft Benedetto Buffon — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -7° · 88 ft Ivica Barišić — double · EV 90 mph · LA +44° · 320 ft Peter Gülich — double · EV 97 mph · LA +16° · 204 ft Néstor Féliz — triple · EV 102 mph · LA +12° · 168 ft Alexander Moukoko — double · EV 81 mph · LA +37° · 254 ft Carlo Fagioli — hr · EV 115 mph · LA +44° · 480 ft Ivica Barišić — ground_out · EV 108 mph · LA +8° · 103 ft Wajdi Jenyat — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -10° · 84 ft Niclas Bella-Kotchap — single · EV 85 mph · LA +5° · 81 ft Peter Gülich — double · EV 107 mph · LA +23° · 329 ft Sokratis Calathes — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -5° · 83 ft Carlo Fagioli — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +46° · 400 ft Stephiylan Scott — fielders_choice · EV 73 mph · LA +2° · 69 ft Ivica Barišić — line_out · EV 97 mph · LA +19° · 232 ft Wajdi Jenyat — single · EV 85 mph · LA +14° · 135 ft Peter Gülich — double · EV 107 mph · LA +28° · 376 ft
Zagreb Miners — Batted Balls
27 BIP· 8 1B · 6 XBH · 1 HR
396' 403' 258' Wall 50' Panagiotis Larentzakis — single · EV 89 mph · LA +10° · 110 ft Toni Fitzgerald — single · EV 84 mph · LA +25° · 219 ft Vincenzo Diouf — single · EV 66 mph · LA +13° · 74 ft Gianluca Mazza — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +25° · 207 ft Mateo Lovren — double_play · EV 73 mph · LA -10° · 69 ft Magdy Sobhi — double · EV 84 mph · LA +14° · 134 ft Rachid Hakimi — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +7° · 75 ft Panagiotis Larentzakis — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +31° · 474 ft Vincenzo Diouf — single · EV 88 mph · LA +13° · 133 ft Gianluca Mazza — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +44° · 298 ft Mateo Lovren — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Geoff Burley — double · EV 88 mph · LA +35° · 293 ft Joshua Robinett — double · EV 86 mph · LA +12° · 121 ft Magdy Sobhi — single · EV 78 mph · LA -3° · 74 ft Rachid Hakimi — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA +20° · 100 ft Panagiotis Larentzakis — double · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 140 ft Vincenzo Diouf — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +24° · 182 ft Gianluca Mazza — fly_out · EV 62 mph · LA +36° · 148 ft Mateo Lovren — fielders_choice · EV 62 mph · LA -17° · 59 ft Joshua Robinett — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Geoff Burley — double · EV 94 mph · LA +15° · 177 ft Magdy Sobhi — single · EV 73 mph · LA +10° · 72 ft Toni Fitzgerald — double · EV 104 mph · LA +42° · 425 ft Rachid Hakimi — single · EV 80 mph · LA +21° · 170 ft Panagiotis Larentzakis — single · EV 88 mph · LA +15° · 157 ft Geoff Burley — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +32° · 238 ft Joshua Robinett — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -4° · 78 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Prague Boars
65% deserve-to-win  ·  15.6 expected runs
actual 14 runs  ·  -1.6 vs expected
contact: 27.8 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 30.0 (+2.2 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Carlo Fagioli 100 / +46° Center Out 2.5 → 0 -2.53
Néstor Féliz 102 / +12° Oppo Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.74
Alexander Moukoko 81 / +37° Center Double 0.5 → 2 +1.48
Ivica Barišić 97 / +19° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.32
Ivica Barišić 90 / +44° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.79
Zagreb Miners
35% deserve-to-win  ·  11.4 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +0.6 vs expected
contact: 19.2 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 24.0 (+4.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Magdy Sobhi 84 / +14° Oppo Double 0.6 → 2 +1.38
Joshua Robinett 86 / +12° Pull Double 0.6 → 2 +1.38
Geoff Burley 94 / +15° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Geoff Burley 88 / +35° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Panagiotis Larentzakis 116 / +31° Center Home Run 3.0 → 4 +0.96
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