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Salvador BC 10, Brasília Stevedores 2                       2046-04-26 · #1159
at Spite Hyyrynen Grounds
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                        1    R    H    E
Salvador               10   10   11    1
Brasília                2    2    4    1

SALVADOR BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Marte       lf ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Soto        ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Cabrera     c  ......    3   2   3   1   0   0   2   1   1   1   0  1.000
Féliz       cf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.333
Valdez      p  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Solano      2b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Ynoa        3b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Rimac   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Almeida     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Mejía   ph ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Paniagua    rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Monteir pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Ortiz   ph ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Almonte     j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Norman      j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Paniagua    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31  10  11   3   0   0   8   9   8   1   0  0.355
  2B: Cabrera (8), Ynoa (9), Ortiz (6).
  SB: Marte (6).
  CS: Féliz (3).
  E: Valdez (1).
  a-Ran for Ynoa in the 7th.
  b-Walked for Almeida in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Paniagua in the 6th.
  d-Batted for Mejía in the 7th.

BRASÍLIA STEVEDORES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kobayashi-F lf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Cruz        c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Lawrick     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Marchetti   p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
  a-Martine 3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  b-Watanab ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Delgado c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Guerra  c  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Encarna c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cabrera     j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Saprissa    j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Polanco     j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Totals                  27   2   4   1   0   0   2   2  12   0   1  0.148
  2B: Kobayashi-Ferreira (5).
  SB: Polanco (3).
  E: Cabrera (1).
  GIDP: Martinelli (1).
  a-Entered at 3B in the 3rd.
  b-Entered at SS in the 3rd.
  c-Entered at C in the 3rd.
  d-Entered at C in the 4th.
  e-Entered at C in the 6th.

SALVADOR BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Valdez (W, 3-0) .....    29   27 100%    4    2    2    2   12    0  123    -

BRASÍLIA STEVEDORES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Marchetti ...........    19   15  56%    3    2    2    4    5    0   60    -
Dolphins ............     4    1   4%    0    3    2    2    0    0   15  2-1
Bonsegundo (L, 2-2) .    10    7  26%    5    4    4    3    1    0   39  2-0
Macedo ..............     6    4  15%    3    1    1    0    2    0   26  1-1

  Batting order: Brasília Stevedores (home) batted second; Salvador BC batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM. Weather: 91°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 97180.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 15 Adrián Paniagua Adrián Cabrera (3B) 1–0
T 15 Adrián Paniagua Ronald Féliz (2B) 2–0
T 15 Wander Marte Bill Mejía (3B) 3–0
T 16 Ronald Féliz Afonso Monteiro (3B) 4–0
T 16 Ronald Féliz Wander Marte (3B) 5–0
T 20 David Ortiz Élan Valdez (3B) 6–0
T 20 David Ortiz Ulises Rimac (2B) 7–0
T 23 Adrián Cabrera Wander Marte (3B) 8–0
T 23 Adrián Cabrera Andrés Soto (2B) 9–0
T 23 Ronald Féliz Adrián Cabrera (3B) 10–0
B 8 Roberto Marchetti Robinson Polanco (3B) 10–1
B 15 Renato Kobayashi-Ferreira Wilmer Guerra (3B) 10–2
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Spite Hyyrynen Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 336' · CF 392' · RF 327' · 33' wall). Balanced.
Crow's Nest
Salvador BC — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 8 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
336' 392' 327' Wall 33' Andrés Soto — fly_out · EV 62 mph · LA +42° · 155 ft Ronald Féliz — line_out · EV 107 mph · LA +13° · 201 ft Fernando Solano — single · EV 92 mph · LA +2° · 87 ft Starlin Ynoa — line_out · EV 97 mph · LA +19° · 228 ft Marquinhos Almeida — line_out · EV 81 mph · LA +23° · 187 ft David Ortiz — single · EV 107 mph · LA +10° · 153 ft Wander Marte — line_out · EV 106 mph · LA +20° · 288 ft Adrián Cabrera — single · EV 103 mph · LA +10° · 153 ft Adrián Paniagua — single · EV 101 mph · LA +7° · 96 ft Ronald Féliz — error · EV 102 mph · LA +20° · 272 ft Starlin Ynoa — double · EV 104 mph · LA +16° · 233 ft Wander Almonte — infield_single · EV 75 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft David Ortiz — double · EV 104 mph · LA +11° · 164 ft Afonso Monteiro — fly_out · EV 90 mph · LA +31° · 288 ft Fernando Solano — fly_out · EV 73 mph · LA +37° · 205 ft Adrián Cabrera — single · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 141 ft Ronald Féliz — single · EV 71 mph · LA +22° · 140 ft Adrián Cabrera — double · EV 100 mph · LA +33° · 361 ft Andrés Soto — single · EV 99 mph · LA +26° · 308 ft
Brasília Stevedores — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
336' 392' 327' Wall 33' Robinson Polanco — single · EV 94 mph · LA +24° · 262 ft Junior Cabrera — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +25° · 259 ft Wilmer Guerra — error · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 119 ft Jean Delgado — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 222 ft Igor Watanabe-Santos — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 116 ft Albert Encarnación — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Nat Lawrick — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 111 ft Léonardo Martinelli — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Joaquín Saprissa — line_out · EV 54 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Renato Kobayashi-Ferreira — double · EV 92 mph · LA +26° · 267 ft Manny Cruz — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 115 ft Junior Cabrera — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +38° · 328 ft Joaquín Saprissa — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 137 ft Wilmer Guerra — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 81 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Salvador BC
90% deserve-to-win  ·  13.0 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  -3.0 vs expected
contact: 18.4 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (-4.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Wander Marte 106 / +20° Oppo Out 1.6 → 0 -1.56
Ronald Féliz 102 / +20° Center Reached on Error 1.5 → 0 -1.54
Ronald Féliz 107 / +13° Oppo Out 1.4 → 0 -1.39
Starlin Ynoa 97 / +19° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.32
Afonso Monteiro 90 / +31° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.79
Brasília Stevedores
10% deserve-to-win  ·  4.3 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -2.3 vs expected
contact: 8.5 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-3.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Renato Kobayashi-Ferreira 92 / +26° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Junior Cabrera 92 / +38° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Jean Delgado 92 / +20° Oppo Out 1.0 → 0 -1.00
Junior Cabrera 92 / +25° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.79
Wilmer Guerra 76 / +15° Center Reached on Error 0.5 → 0 -0.50
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