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Adelaide Baseball Club 35, BHP Wolves 5                     2046-04-26 · #1173
at Gasset Ground
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                        1    R    H    E
Adelaide               35   35   22    0
Brisbane                5    5   12    0

ADELAIDE BASEBALL CLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Blanchard   c  ......    5   2   2   1   0   1   2   0   2   0   0  0.400
Moras       2b ......    3   4   1   0   0   1   2   2   0   0   0  0.333
Young       cf ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   2   2   0   0  0.333
Postecoglou ss ......    5   4   2   0   0   1   4   0   2   0   0  0.400
Ingles      p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   2  0.000
Cox         1b ......    5   5   3   0   0   2   5   0   2   0   0  0.600
Shumpert    rf ......    5   5   3   2   0   1   4   1   1   0   0  0.600
Enyeama     3b ......    5   5   3   1   0   2   5   1   0   0   0  0.600
Spiranovic  lf ......    4   4   3   1   0   1   4   1   0   0   0  0.750
Patel       j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Hrustic     j  ......    2   3   3   1   0   1   5   0   0   1   0  1.500
Totals                  43  35  22   6   0  10  32   7  12   1   2  0.512
  2B: Blanchard (4), Shumpert 2 (2), Enyeama (12), Spiranovic (7), Hrustic (6).
  HR: Blanchard (2), off Christie; Moras (1), off Steinmetz; Postecoglou (1), off Christie; Cox 2 (4), off Christie, Harrison; Shumpert (1), off Davidson; Enyeama 2 (3), off Stoinis, Davidson; Spiranovic (4), off Steinmetz; Hrustic (4), off Harrison.
  SB: Cox 2 (3).
  HBP: Spiranovic (1).


BHP WOLVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Maley       1b ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0  1.000
Blicavs     lf ......    2   1   2   0   0   1   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Henry       c  ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   0  0.500
Gregorius   rf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Head        2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Goodwin     3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Wilkinson   ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Gliddon     cf ......    4   1   2   2   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Stoinis     p  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   0  0.250
Totals                  28   5  12   3   0   1   5   5   4   3   0  0.429
  2B: Gregorius (13), Gliddon 2 (5).
  HR: Blicavs (3), off Ingles.
  HBP: Goodwin (2).


ADELAIDE BASEBALL CLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ingles (W, 3-0) .....    31   24  89%   12    5    5    5    2    1  103    -
Pujols ..............     3    3  11%    0    0    0    0    2    0   17  3-0

BHP WOLVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Stoinis .............     9    5  19%    2    4    4    1    4    1   28    -
Goorjian (L, 0-1) ...    10    4  15%    4    7    6    4    1    0   39  1-1
Steinmetz ...........     5    1   4%    4    6    4    1    0    2   13  1-1
Christie ............     7    6  22%    4    6    5    0    0    3   24  1-1
Harrison ............     5    1   4%    4    6    3    0    1    2   22  1-1
Davidson ............    11    7  26%    3    6    4    1    5    2   39  1-1
Vukona ..............     3    3  11%    0    0    0    0    1    0   13  1-0

  Batting order: BHP Wolves (home) batted second; Adelaide Baseball Club batted first.
  First pitch 6:40 PM VLAT. Weather: 78°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 493785.
  Walk-Back runs: off Goorjian 1, off Steinmetz 2, off Christie 1, off Harrison 3, off Davidson 2.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 2 Miloš Postecoglou Thomas Moras (2B) 1–0
T 5 Reese Shumpert Miloš Postecoglou (1B) 2–0
T 5 Luis Enyeama Reese Shumpert (2B) 3–0
T 5 Luis Enyeama Luis Enyeama (HR) 4–0
T 6 Thomas Moras Luis Enyeama (3B) 5–0
T 7 Brad Hrustic Simon Spiranovic (3B) 6–0
T 7 Brad Hrustic Thomas Moras (2B) 7–0
T 7 Brad Hrustic Jeremy Young (1B) 8–0
T 9 Simon Cox Brad Hrustic (2B) 9–0
T 9 Luis Enyeama Simon Cox (3B) 10–0
T 9 Luis Enyeama Reese Shumpert (2B) 11–0
T 9 Simon Spiranovic Luis Enyeama (2B) 12–0
T 9 Simon Spiranovic Simon Spiranovic (HR) 13–0
T 9 Erick Blanchard Simon Spiranovic (3B) 14–0
T 9 Thomas Moras Erick Blanchard (2B) 15–0
T 9 Thomas Moras Thomas Moras (HR) 16–0
T 9 Miloš Postecoglou Thomas Moras (3B) 17–0
T 11 Simon Cox Miloš Postecoglou (2B) 18–0
T 11 Simon Cox Simon Cox (HR) 19–0
T 13 Simon Spiranovic Simon Cox (3B) 20–0
T 14 Erick Blanchard Erick Blanchard (HR) 21–0
T 16 Miloš Postecoglou Jeremy Young (1B) 22–0
T 16 Miloš Postecoglou Miloš Postecoglou (HR) 23–0
T 16 Brad Hrustic Miloš Postecoglou (3B) 24–0
T 16 Brad Hrustic Brad Hrustic (HR) 25–0
T 16 Dave Patel Brad Hrustic (3B) 26–0
T 17 Simon Cox Dave Patel (1B) 27–0
T 17 Simon Cox Simon Cox (HR) 28–0
T 17 Reese Shumpert Simon Cox (3B) 29–0
T 23 Simon Cox Reese Shumpert (3B) 30–0
T 24 Reese Shumpert Simon Spiranovic (3B) 31–0
T 24 Reese Shumpert Reese Shumpert (HR) 32–0
T 24 Luis Enyeama Reese Shumpert (3B) 33–0
T 24 Luis Enyeama Luis Enyeama (HR) 34–0
T 24 Simon Spiranovic Luis Enyeama (3B) 35–0
B 0 Joshua Blicavs Damien Maley (1B) 35–1
B 0 Joshua Blicavs Joshua Blicavs (HR) 35–2
B 5 Nikita Gliddon Lindsay Henry (2B) 35–3
B 6 Lindsay Henry Nikita Gliddon (3B) 35–4
B 22 Massimo Stoinis Nathan Gregorius (3B) 35–5
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Gasset Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 338' · CF 393' · RF 333' · 10' wall). Balanced.
Flag Pole in Play
Adelaide Baseball Club — Batted Balls
26 BIP· 5 1B · 6 XBH · 10 HR
338' 393' 333' Miloš Postecoglou — error · EV 88 mph · LA +7° · 84 ft Reese Shumpert — double · EV 88 mph · LA +31° · 272 ft Luis Enyeama — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +40° · 394 ft Brad Hrustic — double · EV 88 mph · LA +23° · 225 ft Simon Spiranovic — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +46° · 480 ft Thomas Moras — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +41° · 396 ft Brad Hrustic — single · EV 84 mph · LA +25° · 220 ft Erick Blanchard — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 132 ft Simon Cox — single · EV 99 mph · LA +13° · 171 ft Luis Enyeama — double · EV 119 mph · LA +17° · 317 ft Simon Spiranovic — single · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 332 ft Thomas Moras — ground_out · EV 113 mph · LA +5° · 108 ft Brad Hrustic — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +29° · 480 ft Erick Blanchard — double · EV 119 mph · LA +18° · 337 ft Miloš Postecoglou — single · EV 88 mph · LA -4° · 84 ft Simon Cox — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +39° · 390 ft Luis Enyeama — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 188 ft Dave Patel — single · EV 114 mph · LA +9° · 163 ft Reese Shumpert — double · EV 119 mph · LA +17° · 322 ft Thomas Moras — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -5° · 95 ft Simon Spiranovic — double · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 190 ft Erick Blanchard — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +43° · 396 ft Miloš Postecoglou — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +27° · 443 ft Simon Cox — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +36° · 480 ft Reese Shumpert — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +34° · 480 ft Luis Enyeama — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +40° · 393 ft
BHP Wolves — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 7 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
338' 393' 333' Joshua Blicavs — hr · EV 99 mph · LA +33° · 363 ft Lindsay Henry — single · EV 106 mph · LA -13° · 101 ft Aron Goodwin — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -4° · 81 ft Ivan Wilkinson — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -13° · 81 ft Nikita Gliddon — double · EV 98 mph · LA +27° · 314 ft Massimo Stoinis — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -8° · 80 ft Damien Maley — single · EV 97 mph · LA +22° · 264 ft James Head — line_out · EV 81 mph · LA +15° · 130 ft Lindsay Henry — error · EV 60 mph · LA -13° · 57 ft Nathan Gregorius — ground_out · EV 104 mph · LA +4° · 99 ft Aron Goodwin — single · EV 96 mph · LA +21° · 244 ft Ivan Wilkinson — single · EV 83 mph · LA +7° · 79 ft Nikita Gliddon — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -25° · 72 ft Damien Maley — single · EV 74 mph · LA +20° · 145 ft Joshua Blicavs — single · EV 102 mph · LA +8° · 123 ft Lindsay Henry — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +10° · 99 ft Damien Maley — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +4° · 80 ft Lindsay Henry — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +11° · 102 ft Nathan Gregorius — double · EV 95 mph · LA +40° · 351 ft Massimo Stoinis — line_out · EV 87 mph · LA +15° · 153 ft Massimo Stoinis — single · EV 75 mph · LA +12° · 89 ft Nikita Gliddon — double · EV 102 mph · LA +20° · 274 ft Massimo Stoinis — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 292 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Adelaide Baseball Club
77% deserve-to-win  ·  24.1 expected runs
actual 35 runs  ·  +10.9 vs expected
contact: 46.1 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 56.0 (+9.9 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Erick Blanchard 100 / +43° Oppo Home Run 1.9 → 4 +2.05
Simon Cox 100 / +39° Oppo Home Run 2.1 → 4 +1.91
Luis Enyeama 100 / +40° Oppo Home Run 2.1 → 4 +1.91
Luis Enyeama 100 / +40° Oppo Home Run 2.5 → 4 +1.49
Thomas Moras 100 / +41° Pull Home Run 2.5 → 4 +1.49
BHP Wolves
23% deserve-to-win  ·  13.1 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -8.1 vs expected
contact: 18.2 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 18.0 (-0.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Joshua Blicavs 99 / +33° Oppo Home Run 1.6 → 4 +2.44
Nathan Gregorius 95 / +40° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Lindsay Henry 60 / -13° Pull Stay 0.2 → 1 +0.85
Lindsay Henry 106 / -13° Pull Single 1.8 → 1 -0.84
Nikita Gliddon 98 / +27° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.84
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