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Hermosillo BC 11, Khovd Police 10                           2046-04-26 · #1175
at Hermosillo Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Khovd                  10   10    7    0
Hermosillo             11   11   14    1

KHOVD POLICE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kean        lf ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Robinson    1b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Martín      rf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
McClendon   2b ......    2   3   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.500
Ranson      c  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Downs       3b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   3   0   2   0   1  0.333
Schlukebir  ss ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.333
Sulfsted    p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Woods   cf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Czeremcha   j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Rondón      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32  10   7   2   0   0   8   7  10   0   1  0.219
  2B: Martín (9), Downs (6).
  Squeeze: Downs (1 RBI).
  a-Entered at CF in the 7th.

HERMOSILLO BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Jung        c  ......    4   2   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Lannoy      lf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Lenis       ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Blake   pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Kretschman  1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Norris      cf ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Cota        rf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Pirela      2b ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   4   0   2   1   0  0.500
Gallatin    3b ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Moriwake    p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
O'Malley    j  ......    3   1   3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Salinas     j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Strachan    j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  36  11  14   2   0   0  11   5   8   1   0  0.389
  2B: Pirela (2), Salinas (3).
  SB: Jung (2), Blake (3), Norris (1), Gallatin 2 (2), Strachan (2).
  E: Salinas (3).
  a-Ran for Lenis in the 1st.

KHOVD POLICE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Sulfsted (L, 3-2) ...    10    2   7%    6    6    6    3    2    0   43    -
Segura ..............    17   13  48%    4    5    5    0    4    0   42  2-2
Jiménez-Tromp .......    14   12  44%    3    0    0    2    3    0   53  1-0

HERMOSILLO BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Moriwake (W, 3-1) ...    32   24  89%    6    7    6    6    8    0  114    -
Motohashi ...........     6    3  11%    1    3    2    1    2    0   19  3-3

  Batting order: Hermosillo BC (home) batted first; Khovd Police batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM. Weather: 50°F · Wind out · Clear · Humid. seed 466112.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 1 Juan Norris Dong-hyun Jung (3B) 0–1
B 1 Juan Norris Fernando de Lannoy (2B) 0–2
B 1 Rafael Pirela Don Blake (3B) 0–3
B 1 Rafael Pirela Juan Norris (2B) 0–4
B 1 Rafael Pirela Stefan Cota (1B) 0–5
B 2 Soane Strachan Troy Gallatin (3B) 0–6
B 3 Dong-hyun Jung Warren Salinas (2B) 0–7
B 4 Don Blake Soane Strachan (3B) 0–8
B 8 Rafael Pirela Dong-hyun Jung (2B) 0–9
B 9 Warren Salinas Rafael Pirela (2B) 0–10
B 9 Warren Salinas Mitchell O'Malley (1B) 0–11
T 5 Taylor Schlukebir Wilbur McClendon (3B) 1–11
T 10 Korey Ranson Korey Ranson (3B) 2–11
T 11 Jon Downs Taylor Schlukebir (3B) 3–11
T 13 Nat Kean Wilbur McClendon (3B) 4–11
T 14 Bill Martín Taylor Schlukebir (3B) 5–11
T 14 Aleksandar Woods Wilbur McClendon (3B) 6–11
T 24 Wilbur Robinson Bryce Czeremcha (3B) 7–11
T 25 Jon Downs Nat Kean (3B) 8–11
T 25 Jon Downs Wilbur Robinson (1B) 9–11
T 26 Pablo Rondón Aleksandar Woods (3B) 10–11
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Hermosillo Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 365' · CF 486' · RF 378' · 20' wall). Cavernous.
Wire Basket
Khovd Police — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 5 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
365' 486' 378' Wall 20' Wilbur McClendon — single · EV 92 mph · LA +4° · 88 ft Aleksandar Woods — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +18° · 163 ft Wilbur Robinson — single · EV 82 mph · LA +22° · 192 ft Korey Ranson — single · EV 86 mph · LA +13° · 129 ft Taylor Schlukebir — single · EV 76 mph · LA +20° · 150 ft Miles Sulfsted — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 72 ft Bill Martín — double · EV 100 mph · LA +39° · 395 ft Wilbur McClendon — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +26° · 247 ft Pablo Rondón — error · EV 60 mph · LA +21° · 97 ft Nat Kean — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 207 ft Aleksandar Woods — single · EV 109 mph · LA +9° · 149 ft Wilbur Robinson — fly_out · EV 97 mph · LA +37° · 361 ft Miles Sulfsted — fly_out · EV 99 mph · LA +39° · 383 ft Bill Martín — ground_out · EV 101 mph · LA +7° · 96 ft Jon Downs — double · EV 81 mph · LA +38° · 254 ft Nat Kean — error · EV 81 mph · LA +10° · 94 ft Wilbur Robinson — error · EV 86 mph · LA +15° · 149 ft
Hermosillo BC — Batted Balls
24 BIP· 11 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
365' 486' 378' Wall 20' Dong-hyun Jung — single · EV 96 mph · LA +7° · 91 ft Fernando de Lannoy — single · EV 110 mph · LA +4° · 105 ft Juan Norris — single · EV 94 mph · LA +3° · 89 ft Rafael Pirela — double · EV 96 mph · LA +25° · 281 ft Mitchell O'Malley — infield_single · EV 88 mph · LA +11° · 112 ft Soane Strachan — single · EV 89 mph · LA +24° · 232 ft Don Blake — fly_out · EV 110 mph · LA +10° · 170 ft Stefan Cota — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 138 ft Warren Salinas — double · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 313 ft Dong-hyun Jung — single · EV 87 mph · LA +14° · 148 ft Logan Kretschman — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +4° · 75 ft Rafael Pirela — single · EV 100 mph · LA -5° · 95 ft Troy Gallatin — line_out · EV 90 mph · LA +10° · 114 ft Mitchell O'Malley — single · EV 108 mph · LA +8° · 103 ft Soane Strachan — ground_out · EV 102 mph · LA +3° · 97 ft Don Blake — fly_out · EV 103 mph · LA +26° · 338 ft Dong-hyun Jung — fielders_choice · EV 100 mph · LA -2° · 95 ft Fernando de Lannoy — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +41° · 397 ft Logan Kretschman — line_out · EV 89 mph · LA +19° · 194 ft Juan Norris — single · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 177 ft Rafael Pirela — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA +5° · 65 ft Troy Gallatin — single · EV 100 mph · LA -6° · 95 ft Mitchell O'Malley — single · EV 93 mph · LA +6° · 88 ft Dong-hyun Jung — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +14° · 129 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Khovd Police
34% deserve-to-win  ·  10.0 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 14.3 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-5.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Wilbur Robinson 97 / +37° Center Out 1.6 → 0 -1.57
Miles Sulfsted 99 / +39° Pull Out 1.6 → 0 -1.57
Jon Downs 81 / +38° Center Double 0.5 → 2 +1.48
Nat Kean 100 / +16° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Aleksandar Woods 84 / +18° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.71
Hermosillo BC
66% deserve-to-win  ·  14.0 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  -3.0 vs expected
contact: 19.7 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (-5.7 on contact)
running: 6 SB · 0 CS (+1.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Fernando de Lannoy 100 / +41° Pull Out 2.5 → 0 -2.53
Don Blake 103 / +26° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.44
Don Blake 110 / +10° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.39
Logan Kretschman 89 / +19° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.01
Troy Gallatin 90 / +10° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
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