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Hermosillo BC 12, New York Baseball Club 11                 2046-04-28 · #1249
at Pillai Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Hermosillo             12   12   11    0
New York               11   11    9    1

HERMOSILLO BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Jung        c  ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Lenis       ss ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Kretschman  lf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  a-Blake   pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Pirela      2b ......    4   2   4   1   0   0   2   0   0   1   0  1.000
Fleishman   1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Corozo      3b ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.667
Ashe        cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Gallati pr ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Cota        rf ......    4   2   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.000
Clement     p  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
O'Malley    j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Strachan    j  ......    3   2   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.667
Totals                  33  12  11   3   0   0  10   6   5   1   0  0.333
  2B: Jung (17), Pirela (3), Corozo (1).
  SB: Jung (3).
  HBP: Kretschman (2), Corozo (1).
  GIDP: Fleishman (1), Cota (1).
  a-Ran for Kretschman in the 2nd.
  b-Ran for Ashe in the 2nd.

NEW YORK BASEBALL CLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Rengifo     c  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Solliday    2b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.333
Guerrero    3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   1  0.333
Nachand     cf ......    3   3   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Kitler      rf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Paret       ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Wittenberg  p  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Nye         lf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
  a-Glatch  ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Moffi       j  ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.250
Eldredge    j  ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  30  11   9   3   0   0   9   7  12   0   1  0.300
  2B: Nachand (3), Moffi (7), Nye (5).
  SB: Rengifo (4), Nachand (4).
  CS: Solliday (4), Nye (6).
  E: Guerrero (2).
  HBP: Rengifo (3).
  a-Entered at SS in the 7th.

HERMOSILLO BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Clement .............    16    8  30%    5    7    7    4    3    0   73    -
Ferestien (W, 2-0) ..    15   16  59%    0    0    0    2    9    0   55  2-0
Steever .............     7    3  11%    4    4    4    1    0    0   29  1-1

NEW YORK BASEBALL CLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wittenberg ..........    17   11  41%    5    5    5    3    3    0   55    -
Sulaver (L, 0-3) ....    15    9  33%    4    6    6    2    0    0   46  2-1
Large ...............     8    7  26%    1    1    1    1    2    0   22  2-0

  Batting order: New York Baseball Club (home) batted second; Hermosillo BC batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 50°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 11169.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 5 Stefan Cota Dong-hyun Jung (3B) 1–0
T 6 Soane Strachan Troy Gallatin (3B) 2–0
T 6 Dong-hyun Jung Stefan Cota (3B) 3–0
T 10 Rafael Pirela Soane Strachan (3B) 4–0
T 11 Ángel Corozo Dong-hyun Jung (3B) 5–0
T 11 Stefan Cota Rafael Pirela (3B) 6–0
T 12 Rudy Clement Troy Gallatin (3B) 7–0
T 12 Dong-hyun Jung Stefan Cota (3B) 8–0
T 15 Rafael Pirela Soane Strachan (3B) 9–0
T 16 Troy Gallatin Rudy Clement (3B) 10–0
T 18 Rudy Clement Rafael Pirela (3B) 11–0
T 23 Ángel Corozo Ángel Corozo (3B) 12–0
B 2 Hanley Guerrero Lyrick Nachand (3B) 12–1
B 2 Hanley Guerrero Murphy Eldredge (3B) 12–2
B 2 Hanley Guerrero Chris Solliday (3B) 12–3
B 3 Glenn Nye Victor Paret (1B) 12–4
B 5 Hal Wittenberg Fred Kitler (2B) 12–5
B 5 Murphy Eldredge Hal Wittenberg (2B) 12–6
B 7 Hanley Guerrero Lyrick Nachand (3B) 12–7
B 24 Lyrick Nachand Josef Rengifo (3B) 12–8
B 24 Baboucarr Moffi Lyrick Nachand (2B) 12–9
B 24 Baboucarr Moffi Murphy Eldredge (1B) 12–10
B 24 Chris Solliday Baboucarr Moffi (2B) 12–11
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Pillai Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 366' · CF 445' · RF 359' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
Hermosillo BC — Batted Balls
24 BIP· 6 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
366' 445' 359' Dong-hyun Jung — double · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 134 ft Rafael Pirela — single · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 162 ft Stuart Fleishman — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -14° · 49 ft Ángel Corozo — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 209 ft Mitchell O'Malley — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +31° · 203 ft Stefan Cota — error · EV 54 mph · LA -14° · 51 ft Troy Gallatin — single · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 154 ft Rudy Clement — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Mitchell O'Malley — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +47° · 230 ft Mateo Lenis — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 79 ft Rafael Pirela — error · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 98 ft Ángel Corozo — double · EV 93 mph · LA +17° · 194 ft Stefan Cota — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -20° · 49 ft Soane Strachan — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 79 ft Troy Gallatin — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +27° · 186 ft Rafael Pirela — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 117 ft Mateo Lenis — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +42° · 230 ft Rafael Pirela — double · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 292 ft Stuart Fleishman — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 127 ft Stefan Cota — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -3° · 49 ft Ángel Corozo — single · EV 52 mph · LA +12° · 60 ft Soane Strachan — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft Mateo Lenis — single · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 167 ft Rafael Pirela — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +1° · 49 ft
New York Baseball Club — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 6 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
366' 445' 359' Lyrick Nachand — error · EV 98 mph · LA +11° · 149 ft Hanley Guerrero — single · EV 109 mph · LA +21° · 313 ft Victor Paret — single · EV 96 mph · LA -2° · 91 ft Glenn Nye — double · EV 100 mph · LA +44° · 400 ft Hal Wittenberg — single · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 265 ft Murphy Eldredge — single · EV 80 mph · LA +12° · 106 ft Fred Kitler — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA -3° · 93 ft Hal Wittenberg — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +3° · 82 ft Josef Rengifo — single · EV 97 mph · LA -25° · 92 ft Lyrick Nachand — double · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 242 ft Chris Solliday — single · EV 88 mph · LA +16° · 164 ft Baboucarr Moffi — double · EV 98 mph · LA +39° · 374 ft Victor Paret — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA -15° · 93 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Hermosillo BC
49% deserve-to-win  ·  8.6 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +3.4 vs expected
contact: 11.0 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (+2.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rafael Pirela 92 / +30° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Dong-hyun Jung 92 / +12° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Ángel Corozo 92 / +19° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.01
Ángel Corozo 93 / +17° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +0.99
Stuart Fleishman 76 / +17° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.60
New York Baseball Club
51% deserve-to-win  ·  8.7 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +2.3 vs expected
contact: 13.9 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (-1.9 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 2 CS (-1.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Lyrick Nachand 98 / +11° Pull Reached on Error 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Hanley Guerrero 109 / +21° Center Single 1.7 → 1 -0.70
Josef Rengifo 97 / -25° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.55
Hal Wittenberg 100 / +21° Oppo Single 1.5 → 1 -0.54
Fred Kitler 98 / -3° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.52
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