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Sapporo Sentinels 15, Ola Knights 8                         2046-04-29 · #1277
at Cele Park
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                        1    R    H    E
Sapporo                15   15   11    0
Ola                     8    8    8    1

SAPPORO SENTINELS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Limar       lf ......    5   2   3   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  0.600
Bricka      p  ......    5   3   2   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  0.400
Amrouche    ss ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Barros      c  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.250
Shelburne   cf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Harbour     rf ......    3   3   2   0   1   1   5   1   1   0   0  0.667
Giammalva   1b ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.333
Waite       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Villahermos 2b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Arias       j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  33  15  11   2   1   3  15   6  10   0   0  0.333
  2B: Shelburne (4), Villahermosa (1).
  3B: Harbour (1).
  HR: Limar (3), off Gerulaitisov; Bricka (1), off Biryukov; Harbour (1), off Gerulaitisov.
  CS: Harbour (4), Waite (2).
  HBP: Waite (2), Arias (1).


OLA KNIGHTS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Biryukov    p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Fedorov ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pogorelova  2b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.333
Ávalos      ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Potapova    c  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-MacDona ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Arringtonov 3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Adames  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Olivera cf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.500
  e-Vatutin 2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  f-Biryuko cf ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  g-Mayberr ss ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
  h-Kloster pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  i-Bychkov pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Marchenko   j  ......    4   1   2   2   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.500
Sumarokov-E j  ......    5   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.200
Totals                  32   8   8   3   0   0   7   5  16   0   0  0.250
  2B: Marchenko 2 (13), Potapova (1).
  SB: Biryukov (2), Mayberrin 2 (5), Pogorelova (3).
  CS: Sumarokov-Elston (3), Klosterman (2).
  E: Mayberrin (4).
  HBP: Biryukov (1).
  a-Struck out for Biryukov in the 8th.
  b-Grounded out for Potapova in the 8th.
  c-Struck out for Arringtonov in the 8th.
  d-Entered at CF in the 3rd.
  e-Entered at 2B in the 3rd.
  f-Entered at CF in the 6th.
  g-Entered at SS in the 8th.
  h-Ran for Vatutin in the 7th.
  i-Ran for Olivera in the 9th.

SAPPORO SENTINELS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bricka (W, 3-2) .....    33   26  96%    6    8    8    4   16    0  131    -
Escobar .............     2    1   4%    0    0    0    1    0    0    8  1-0

OLA KNIGHTS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Biryukov ............    10    7  26%    4    4    4    1    3    1   33    -
O'Neill .............    17   13  48%    3    5    4    3    5    0   75  1-0
Gerulaitisov (L, 0-2)      9    5  19%    4    6    5    1    1    2   34  1-0
Alenitsyn ...........     3    2   7%    0    0    0    1    1    0    9  1-0

  Batting order: Ola Knights (home) batted second; Sapporo Sentinels batted first.
  First pitch 1:10 PM MAGT. Weather: 49°F · Wind cross · Overcast · Dry. seed 273408.
  Walk-Back runs: off Gerulaitisov 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 3 Ben Shelburne Sidney Bricka (2B) 1–0
T 7 Sidney Bricka Ben Shelburne (2B) 2–0
T 7 Sidney Bricka Robbie Giammalva (1B) 3–0
T 7 Sidney Bricka Sidney Bricka (HR) 4–0
T 16 Remington Barros Maciek Limar (3B) 5–0
T 17 Norman Harbour Basil Arias (3B) 6–0
T 17 Norman Harbour Augustine Amrouche (2B) 7–0
T 17 Norman Harbour Remington Barros (1B) 8–0
T 18 Collin Waite Norman Harbour (3B) 9–0
T 24 Norman Harbour Sidney Bricka (2B) 10–0
T 24 Norman Harbour Norman Harbour (HR) 11–0
T 24 Robbie Giammalva Norman Harbour (3B) 12–0
T 25 Maciek Limar Robbie Giammalva (2B) 13–0
T 25 Maciek Limar Randall Villahermosa (1B) 14–0
T 25 Maciek Limar Maciek Limar (HR) 15–0
B 2 Danya Mayberrin Yoenis Olivera (3B) 15–1
B 5 Stepan Potapova Danya Mayberrin (3B) 15–2
B 5 Stepan Potapova Stanislav Biryukov (2B) 15–3
B 12 Savriyan Pogorelova Josh Arringtonov (3B) 15–4
B 12 Savriyan Pogorelova Mykhailo Marchenko (2B) 15–5
B 13 Josh Arringtonov Savriyan Pogorelova (3B) 15–6
B 25 Mykhailo Marchenko Kirill Bychkova (1B) 15–7
B 25 Yaroslav Sumarokov-Elston Stanislav Biryukov (3B) 15–8
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Cele Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 276' · CF 369' · RF 282' · 9' wall). The Bandbox.
Scoreboard Clock
Sapporo Sentinels — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 5 1B · 3 XBH · 3 HR
276' 369' 282' Maciek Limar — single · EV 100 mph · LA +0° · 95 ft Remington Barros — single · EV 111 mph · LA +4° · 106 ft Ben Shelburne — double · EV 99 mph · LA +18° · 236 ft Maciek Limar — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +27° · 234 ft Sidney Bricka — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +42° · 480 ft Ben Shelburne — fly_out · EV 105 mph · LA +59° · 387 ft Norman Harbour — triple · EV 110 mph · LA +18° · 288 ft Collin Waite — error · EV 93 mph · LA +19° · 209 ft Maciek Limar — single · EV 94 mph · LA +8° · 98 ft Randall Villahermosa — double · EV 96 mph · LA +31° · 322 ft Augustine Amrouche — line_out · EV 68 mph · LA +15° · 90 ft Remington Barros — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA -10° · 69 ft Norman Harbour — hr · EV 97 mph · LA +31° · 331 ft Robbie Giammalva — single · EV 90 mph · LA +15° · 164 ft Collin Waite — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -21° · 81 ft Maciek Limar — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +22° · 171 ft Sidney Bricka — single · EV 82 mph · LA +17° · 147 ft Maciek Limar — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +29° · 342 ft Sidney Bricka — line_out · EV 94 mph · LA +16° · 183 ft
Ola Knights — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
276' 369' 282' Yoenis Olivera — single · EV 86 mph · LA +6° · 82 ft Stepan Potapova — double · EV 93 mph · LA +32° · 314 ft Josh Arringtonov — fielders_choice · EV 58 mph · LA -9° · 55 ft Croix MacDonaldov — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +29° · 236 ft Mykhailo Marchenko — double · EV 88 mph · LA +31° · 271 ft Savriyan Pogorelova — single · EV 86 mph · LA +17° · 161 ft Rómulo Ávalos — infield_single · EV 70 mph · LA -17° · 67 ft Josh Arringtonov — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -5° · 73 ft Yaroslav Sumarokov-Elston — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA -0° · 66 ft Mykhailo Marchenko — double · EV 93 mph · LA +21° · 235 ft Yaroslav Sumarokov-Elston — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA -9° · 92 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Sapporo Sentinels
96% deserve-to-win  ·  12.0 expected runs
actual 15 runs  ·  +3.0 vs expected
contact: 19.2 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 24.0 (+4.8 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Norman Harbour 97 / +31° Pull Home Run 1.2 → 4 +2.84
Maciek Limar 100 / +29° Pull Home Run 1.4 → 4 +2.57
Norman Harbour 110 / +18° Pull Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.31
Ben Shelburne 105 / +59° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Collin Waite 93 / +19° Center Reached on Error 1.0 → 0 -1.01
Ola Knights
4% deserve-to-win  ·  2.4 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +5.6 vs expected
contact: 5.2 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+3.8 on contact)
running: 4 SB · 2 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mykhailo Marchenko 88 / +31° Oppo Double 0.4 → 2 +1.61
Mykhailo Marchenko 93 / +21° Oppo Double 1.0 → 2 +0.99
Stepan Potapova 93 / +32° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Rómulo Ávalos 70 / -17° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Yoenis Olivera 86 / +6° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
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