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Panevėžys Bottling Co. 8, Erdenet Sawmill 7  (1 SI)         2046-04-29 · #1321
at Sarraf Park
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                        1      S    R    H    E
Erdenet                 6      1    7    5    2
Panevėžys               6      2    8   11    1

ERDENET SAWMILL
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Ferraz      p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Bower       c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  a-Barry   2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   1   0  0.333
  b-Bastard 3b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
  c-Davis   ss ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Rahimi  c  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Geraldo pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Carrizo rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  g-Murugan ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  h-Encarna ph ......    3   0   2   2   0   0   3   1   1   0   0  0.667
  i-Tawfik  pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  j-Schraut pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  k-Gautche ph ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Samuel      j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Pritchard   j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   .000
Porter      j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   7   5   2   0   0   6  12  16   1   0  0.172
  2B: Encarnación 2 (2).
  CS: Pritchard 2 (4).
  E: Bastardo (3), Ferraz (1).
  HBP: Murugan (1).
  GIDP: Geraldo (1).
  a-Entered at 2B in the 3rd.
  b-Entered at 3B in the 3rd.
  c-Entered at SS in the 3rd.
  d-Entered at C in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Carrizo in the 3rd.
  f-Entered at RF in the 7th.
  g-Entered at SS in the 9th.
  h-Batted in the 2nd.
  i-Ran for Murugan in the 2nd.
  j-Ran in the 3rd.
  k-Batted in the 3rd.

PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO.
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Shafie      ss ......    5   1   2   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.400
Cunha       lf ......    4   2   3   1   0   1   3   1   0   1   0  0.750
Turnbow     c  ......    4   2   2   2   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.500
Kittay      p  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Mozee       2b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Lehnhoff    3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Barten      rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
McCullough  cf ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Sureephong  1b ......    4   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  35   8  11   5   0   1   8   3   7   1   0  0.314
  2B: Shafie (15), Cunha (12), Turnbow 2 (10), McCullough (4).
  HR: Cunha (10), off Ferraz.
  E: Shafie (3).
  GIDP: Turnbow (1), McCullough (1).


ERDENET SAWMILL PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ferraz (L, 2-2) .....    14    9  33%    5    5    3    1    2    1   43    -
Devereaux ...........     8    6  22%    2    2    2    2    2    0   27  1-1
Kirkland ............     8    5  19%    4    1    1    0    1    0   33  1-0
Fontes ..............     7    8  30%    0    0    0    0    2    0   35  1-0

PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO. PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Kittay (W, 5-0) .....    38   27 100%    5    7    4   11   14    0  141    -
Ivanova .............     4    3  11%    0    0    0    1    2    0   17  1-0

  Batting order: Panevėžys Bottling Co. (home) batted first; Erdenet Sawmill batted second.
  Super-innings: 1.
  First pitch 1:10 PM. Weather: 70°F · Wind out · Clear · Humid. seed 388728.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 8 Diego Turnbow Lyle Sureephong (3B) 0–1
B 8 Diego Turnbow Harris Shafie (2B) 0–2
B 8 Diego Turnbow Nicholas Cunha (1B) 0–3
B 10 Lex McCullough Diego Turnbow (3B) 0–4
B 14 Nicholas Cunha Destyn Kittay (3B) 0–5
B 15 Donni Mozee Diego Turnbow (3B) 0–6
T 6 Keaton Barry Maurice Davis (3B) 1–6
T 7 Franklin Pritchard Mostafa Tawfik (3B) 2–6
T 8 Jerry Samuel Yefri Geraldo (3B) 3–6
T 23 Dave Bower Franklin Pritchard (3B) 4–6
T 24 Jhoan Encarnación James Gautcher (3B) 5–6
T 24 Jhoan Encarnación Saman Rahimi (2B) 6–6
ST 29 Jhoan Encarnación Endy Bastardo (2B) 7–6
SB 28 Nicholas Cunha Lyle Sureephong (1B) 7–7
SB 28 Nicholas Cunha Nicholas Cunha (HR) 7–8
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Sarraf Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 335' · CF 430' · RF 314' · 41' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill Knothole Gates
Erdenet Sawmill — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 2 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
335' 430' 314' Wall 41' Endy Bastardo — infield_single · EV 63 mph · LA -4° · 60 ft Saman Rahimi — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -6° · 73 ft Garly Carrizo — single · EV 61 mph · LA +17° · 82 ft Keaton Barry — error · EV 66 mph · LA -4° · 63 ft Yefri Geraldo — double_play · EV 61 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Mostafa Tawfik — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +31° · 205 ft Jerry Samuel — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +14° · 112 ft Jhoan Encarnación — double · EV 83 mph · LA +38° · 269 ft Saman Rahimi — error · EV 65 mph · LA -9° · 61 ft Endy Bastardo — fielders_choice · EV 81 mph · LA -16° · 77 ft Dave Bower — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +28° · 283 ft Jhoan Encarnación — double · EV 92 mph · LA +36° · 323 ft
Panevėžys Bottling Co. — Batted Balls
24 BIP· 5 1B · 5 XBH · 1 HR
335' 430' 314' Wall 41' Nicholas Cunha — fielders_choice · EV 87 mph · LA +6° · 83 ft Diego Turnbow — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +28° · 233 ft Donni Mozee — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA +14° · 159 ft Tyderick Barten — single · EV 94 mph · LA -3° · 89 ft Lex McCullough — double · EV 91 mph · LA +35° · 313 ft Lyle Sureephong — fielders_choice · EV 75 mph · LA -18° · 72 ft Harris Shafie — double · EV 93 mph · LA +45° · 346 ft Diego Turnbow — double · EV 107 mph · LA +27° · 372 ft Lex McCullough — double_play · EV 80 mph · LA +7° · 76 ft Lyle Sureephong — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -7° · 63 ft Nicholas Cunha — double · EV 94 mph · LA +18° · 211 ft Destyn Kittay — infield_single · EV 72 mph · LA +6° · 68 ft Nicholas Cunha — single · EV 80 mph · LA +7° · 76 ft Harris Shafie — ground_out · EV 91 mph · LA +6° · 86 ft Diego Turnbow — double · EV 86 mph · LA +10° · 103 ft Donni Mozee — infield_single · EV 71 mph · LA -4° · 68 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -22° · 73 ft Lex McCullough — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +48° · 381 ft Nicholas Cunha — error · EV 65 mph · LA +7° · 62 ft Harris Shafie — single · EV 83 mph · LA +21° · 188 ft Diego Turnbow — double_play · EV 78 mph · LA -11° · 74 ft Donni Mozee — line_out · EV 74 mph · LA +13° · 96 ft Lyle Sureephong — error · EV 88 mph · LA -3° · 83 ft Nicholas Cunha — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +31° · 436 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Erdenet Sawmill
20% deserve-to-win  ·  4.2 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +2.8 vs expected
contact: 5.0 est bases + 12 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (+2.0 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jhoan Encarnación 83 / +38° Center Double 0.5 → 2 +1.49
Jhoan Encarnación 92 / +36° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Endy Bastardo 63 / -4° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.85
Keaton Barry 66 / -4° Oppo Stay 0.1 → 1 +0.85
Dave Bower 92 / +28° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.79
Panevėžys Bottling Co.
80% deserve-to-win  ·  8.5 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  -0.5 vs expected
contact: 15.5 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 18.0 (+2.5 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Nicholas Cunha 111 / +31° Oppo Home Run 2.4 → 4 +1.65
Diego Turnbow 86 / +10° Center Double 0.6 → 2 +1.38
Lex McCullough 91 / +35° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Donni Mozee 93 / +14° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
Lex McCullough 98 / +48° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.80
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