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Panevėžys Bottling Co. 17, Erdenet Sawmill 5                2046-04-30 · #1325
at Sarraf Park
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                        1    R    H    E
Erdenet                 5    5    6    0
Panevėžys              17   17   19    0

ERDENET SAWMILL
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Bastardo    3b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Mooy    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bower       c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Rangi       lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Tejada      p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Encarna ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Barry   2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Vanderh cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Davis   ss ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Rahimi  c  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
  g-Geraldo pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  h-Jansen  3b ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
  i-Nagy    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Pritchard   j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Porter      j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Samuel      j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   5   6   1   0   0   4   4  13   0   0  0.214
  2B: Jansen (1).
  SB: Davis (4), Rahimi 2 (3).
  a-Struck out for Bastardo in the 6th.
  b-Singled for Tejada in the 7th.
  c-Entered at 2B in the 3rd.
  d-Entered at CF in the 3rd.
  e-Entered at SS in the 3rd.
  f-Entered at C in the 3rd.
  g-Ran for Nagy in the 7th.
  h-Entered at 3B in the 7th.
  i-Batted for Vanderhoef in the 4th.

PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO.
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Shafie      ss ......    3   2   2   2   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.667
Cunha       lf ......    4   2   3   1   0   1   4   0   0   1   0  0.750
Turnbow     c  ......    3   2   2   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.667
Lehnhoff    3b ......    4   2   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Barten      rf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
McCullough  2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Galvis      cf ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Bullard     1b ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Bastardo    p  ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.500
Saul        j  ......    2   2   3   0   0   0   2   0   0   1   0  1.500
Faga        j  ......    3   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
Totals                  38  17  19   7   0   2  16   3  10   2   0  0.500
  2B: Shafie 2 (17), Cunha (13), Lehnhoff (10), Galvis (3), Bullard (1), Bastardo (2).
  HR: Cunha (11), off Bashor; Faga (2), off Witsken.
  HBP: Saul (1).


ERDENET SAWMILL PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Tejada ..............    11    7  26%    4    2    2    2    4    0   42    -
Al-Haqbani ..........     4    1   4%    3    2    2    0    0    0   17  2-1
Witsken (L, 0-2) ....     4    2   7%    2    5    5    0    1    1    8  3-3
Blumberg ............    10    6  22%    5    4    3    1    2    0   48  1-1
Bashor ..............    11    7  26%    4    4    4    0    3    1   35  1-1
Butt ................     2    4  15%    1    0    0    0    0    0    7  2-0

PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO. PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bastardo (W, 6-1) ...    32   27 100%    6    5    5    4   13    0  125    -

  Batting order: Panevėžys Bottling Co. (home) batted first; Erdenet Sawmill batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM. Weather: 55°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 347377.
  Walk-Back runs: off Blumberg 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Diego Turnbow Harris Shafie (3B) 0–1
B 6 Nicholas Cunha Nicholas Cunha (3B) 0–2
B 7 Diego Turnbow Diego Turnbow (3B) 0–3
B 7 Armondo Lehnhoff Harris Shafie (3B) 0–4
B 9 Júnior Galvis Armondo Lehnhoff (3B) 0–5
B 9 Júnior Galvis Tavierre Saul (2B) 0–6
B 9 Turner Bullard Tyderick Barten (3B) 0–7
B 10 Mackenzie Faga Júnior Galvis (1B) 0–8
B 10 Mackenzie Faga Mackenzie Faga (HR) 0–9
B 11 Harris Shafie Mackenzie Faga (3B) 0–10
B 15 Júnior Galvis Diego Turnbow (2B) 0–11
B 15 Turner Bullard Armondo Lehnhoff (3B) 0–12
B 15 Tavierre Saul Júnior Galvis (3B) 0–13
B 18 Nicholas Cunha Tavierre Saul (3B) 0–14
B 18 Nicholas Cunha Renato Bastardo (1B) 0–15
B 18 Nicholas Cunha Nicholas Cunha (HR) 0–16
B 23 Tavierre Saul Turner Bullard (2B) 0–17
T 4 Dave Bower Saman Rahimi (3B) 1–17
T 7 Endy Bastardo Dave Bower (2B) 2–17
T 16 Strong Jansen Maurice Davis (2B) 3–17
T 19 Jhoan Encarnación Strong Jansen (2B) 4–17
T 24 Dave Bower Yefri Geraldo (3B) 5–17
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Sarraf Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 335' · CF 430' · RF 314' · 41' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill Knothole Gates
Erdenet Sawmill — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
335' 430' 314' Wall 41' Saman Rahimi — single · EV 100 mph · LA +0° · 95 ft Dave Bower — single · EV 88 mph · LA +11° · 117 ft Endy Bastardo — single · EV 100 mph · LA -16° · 95 ft Alex Rangi — line_out · EV 97 mph · LA +26° · 292 ft Jean Tejada — single · EV 100 mph · LA +7° · 95 ft Strong Jansen — double · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 152 ft Jhoan Encarnación — single · EV 88 mph · LA -9° · 84 ft Frank Porter — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +6° · 79 ft Maurice Davis — fielders_choice · EV 78 mph · LA -10° · 74 ft Alex Rangi — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +36° · 294 ft Frank Porter — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA -12° · 85 ft Jerry Samuel — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA +3° · 67 ft Maurice Davis — fly_out · EV 97 mph · LA +48° · 376 ft
Panevėžys Bottling Co. — Batted Balls
28 BIP· 10 1B · 7 XBH · 2 HR
335' 430' 314' Wall 41' Harris Shafie — double · EV 92 mph · LA +46° · 336 ft Nicholas Cunha — double · EV 101 mph · LA +13° · 175 ft Diego Turnbow — single · EV 81 mph · LA +11° · 103 ft Tyderick Barten — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +25° · 218 ft Mackenzie Faga — hr · EV 106 mph · LA +44° · 452 ft Tavierre Saul — single · EV 86 mph · LA +4° · 82 ft Tavierre Saul — single · EV 90 mph · LA -16° · 86 ft Nicholas Cunha — single · EV 94 mph · LA +22° · 240 ft Diego Turnbow — single · EV 94 mph · LA +13° · 157 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — double · EV 96 mph · LA +27° · 293 ft Tyderick Barten — single · EV 82 mph · LA -7° · 78 ft Júnior Galvis — single · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 246 ft Turner Bullard — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +37° · 223 ft Harris Shafie — double · EV 90 mph · LA +33° · 293 ft Tavierre Saul — single · EV 80 mph · LA +14° · 117 ft Nicholas Cunha — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +29° · 254 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — fielders_choice · EV 95 mph · LA +9° · 111 ft Júnior Galvis — double · EV 88 mph · LA +37° · 300 ft Turner Bullard — single · EV 98 mph · LA +9° · 125 ft Renato Bastardo — single · EV 67 mph · LA +18° · 105 ft Diego Turnbow — line_out · EV 99 mph · LA +20° · 256 ft Lex McCullough — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +17° · 174 ft Mackenzie Faga — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +44° · 231 ft Nicholas Cunha — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +41° · 478 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +40° · 261 ft Júnior Galvis — fielders_choice · EV 64 mph · LA +5° · 61 ft Turner Bullard — double · EV 92 mph · LA +43° · 335 ft Renato Bastardo — double · EV 112 mph · LA +17° · 289 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Erdenet Sawmill
11% deserve-to-win  ·  5.2 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -0.2 vs expected
contact: 8.4 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-1.4 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 0 CS (+0.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Alex Rangi 97 / +26° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Alex Rangi 88 / +36° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Maurice Davis 97 / +48° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.78
Strong Jansen 100 / +11° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.74
Jhoan Encarnación 88 / -9° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.57
Panevėžys Bottling Co.
89% deserve-to-win  ·  14.9 expected runs
actual 17 runs  ·  +2.1 vs expected
contact: 28.2 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 32.0 (+3.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Diego Turnbow 99 / +20° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.32
Armondo Lehnhoff 95 / +9° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Lex McCullough 88 / +17° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.00
Harris Shafie 90 / +33° Oppo Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Júnior Galvis 88 / +37° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
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