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Sydney Border Force 12, Brisbane Thunder 6                  2046-04-30 · #1328
at Genia Grounds
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Brisbane                6      0    6    6    2
Sydney                 12      0   12    9    0

BRISBANE THUNDER
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Brondello   1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Hsia        lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Gorry       c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Ingles  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Semenyo     2b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Puhi        cf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Wagner  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Bowen       p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   1  0.000
  c-Collins 2b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Rivera  ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Bogut   c  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Gustavs pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Toumi       j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Vukovic     j  ......    3   1   3   0   0   0   1   0   1   1   0  1.000
Robinson    j  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   6   6   0   0   0   4   6  10   1   1  0.231
  E: Toumi 2 (2).
  HBP: Toumi (4), Collins (1), Semenyo (1).
  GIDP: Hsia (1).
  a-Grounded out for Gorry in the 8th.
  b-Batted for Puhi in the 6th.
  c-Entered at 2B in the 3rd.
  d-Entered at SS in the 3rd.
  e-Entered at C in the 7th.
  f-Ran for Rivera in the 8th.

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Percival    lf ......    3   1   2   2   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.667
Jiménez-Tro c  ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.250
Lochhead    3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Pledger     ss ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Buffington  rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Nayler  pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Rulli       1b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Caporn      p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Nelsen  pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Gorry   ph ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   1   3   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Wagner  ph ......    3   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Pledger     j  ......    4   1   3   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   0  0.750
Hunt        j  ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  34  12   9   4   0   0   8   7  15   1   0  0.265
  2B: Percival 2 (3), Jiménez-Tromp (3), Rulli (2).
  SB: Wagner (4), Nayler (2).
  HBP: Buffington (3).
  GIDP: Hunt (1).
  a-Ran for Buffington in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Caporn in the 4th.
  c-Batted in the 3rd.
  d-Batted in the 3rd.

BRISBANE THUNDER PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bowen ...............    14   10  37%    3    2    1    2    6    0   53    -
Delany ..............     5    2   7%    0    3    3    2    0    0   20  3-3
Rodriguez (L, 0-1) ..    13    9  33%    2    5    4    1    7    0   46  3-3
Bannatyne ...........     9    6  22%    3    2    2    2    2    0   36  2-2

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Caporn (W, 2-4) .....    24   18  67%    4    5    5    5    7    0  101    -
Hassett (F, 9) ......    11    9  33%    2    1    1    1    3    0   42  2-1

  Batting order: Sydney Border Force (home) batted first; Brisbane Thunder batted second.
  Seconds: BT o26 (6-12), SBF o26 (12-0).
  First pitch 6:00 PM VLAT. Weather: 65°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 86259.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 9 Mika Pledger Mitchell Pledger (3B) 0–1
B 9 Richard Hunt Todd Gorry (3B) 0–2
B 9 Xander Jiménez-Tromp Mika Pledger (2B) 0–3
B 11 Stefan Buffington Grant Nelsen (3B) 0–4
B 11 Todd Gorry Richard Hunt (3B) 0–5
B 11 Brendan Wagner Mitchell Pledger (3B) 0–6
B 11 Brendan Wagner Cam Nayler (3B) 0–7
B 13 Hoani Percival Todd Gorry (3B) 0–8
B 13 Mika Pledger Brendan Wagner (3B) 0–9
B 20 Manuel Rulli Hoani Percival (3B) 0–10
B 21 Hoani Percival Brendan Wagner (3B) 0–11
B 24 Xander Jiménez-Tromp Manuel Rulli (3B) 0–12
T 6 Dyson Rivera Aaron Vukovic (3B) 1–12
T 10 Anis Toumi Gordy Semenyo (3B) 2–12
T 10 Chien-fu Hsia Mika Puhi (3B) 3–12
T 15 Dyson Rivera Mark Robinson (3B) 4–12
T 16 Marino Bowen Nathan Collins (3B) 5–12
T 17 Aaron Vukovic Bruno Bogut (3B) 6–12
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Genia Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 362' · CF 435' · RF 397' · 7' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Brisbane Thunder — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 6 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
362' 435' 397' Aaron Vukovic — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 134 ft Mark Robinson — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA -16° · 58 ft Anis Toumi — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +14° · 136 ft Chien-fu Hsia — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 159 ft Nathan Collins — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +26° · 195 ft David Gorry — line_out · EV 86 mph · LA +26° · 233 ft Gordy Semenyo — single · EV 54 mph · LA -5° · 51 ft Andrej Ingles — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 67 ft Bruno Bogut — single · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Aaron Vukovic — single · EV 76 mph · LA +20° · 151 ft Fran Brondello — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -8° · 87 ft Nathan Collins — single · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 169 ft Anis Toumi — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA +1° · 57 ft Aaron Vukovic — single · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 181 ft Chien-fu Hsia — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +0° · 72 ft
Sydney Border Force — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 3 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
362' 435' 397' Hoani Percival — double · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 293 ft Xander Jiménez-Tromp — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 238 ft Mika Pledger — single · EV 76 mph · LA -4° · 72 ft Richard Hunt — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Mika Pledger — single · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 119 ft Richard Hunt — error · EV 52 mph · LA +11° · 60 ft Xander Jiménez-Tromp — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 70 ft Taylor Lochhead — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +11° · 60 ft Brendan Wagner — error · EV 68 mph · LA -13° · 64 ft Cam Nayler — single · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 180 ft Hoani Percival — double · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 148 ft Richard Hunt — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Manuel Rulli — double · EV 92 mph · LA +29° · 288 ft Mitchell Pledger — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 234 ft Mika Pledger — error · EV 79 mph · LA +10° · 81 ft Richard Hunt — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Xander Jiménez-Tromp — double · EV 93 mph · LA +24° · 255 ft Mika Pledger — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +38° · 224 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brisbane Thunder
36% deserve-to-win  ·  6.2 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -0.2 vs expected
contact: 6.6 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-0.6 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Gordy Semenyo 54 / -5° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.85
Bruno Bogut 76 / -9° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Anis Toumi 85 / +14° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Chien-fu Hsia 76 / +22° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.60
Andrej Ingles 76 / +8° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.50
Sydney Border Force
64% deserve-to-win  ·  8.2 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +3.8 vs expected
contact: 10.7 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+1.3 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Hoani Percival 92 / +30° Oppo Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Manuel Rulli 92 / +29° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Hoani Percival 92 / +13° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Xander Jiménez-Tromp 92 / +22° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.00
Xander Jiménez-Tromp 93 / +24° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +1.00
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