==============================================================================
Lima BC 12, New York Royals 4                               2046-04-30 · #1342
at Kompany Stadium
==============================================================================

                        1      2    R    H    E
New York                4      0    4    4    0
Lima                   12      -   12   11    0

NEW YORK ROYALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Tasci       lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kagawa      p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Green       1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
King        cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   1  0.000
Magill      c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Jack        2b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Morgan      3b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
  a-Vydra   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Wright-Phil ss ......    3   2   2   0   1   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.667
Clarke      rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   4   4   1   1   0   4   3   8   0   1  0.143
  2B: Morgan (6).
  3B: Wright-Phillips (1).
  a-Grounded out for Morgan in the 9th.

LIMA BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Balbirnie   cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Musil       p  ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   1  0.500
Howell      2b ......    3   2   2   2   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
Jones       c  ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
Bachan      lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Černý       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Taylor  lf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
  b-Toone   c  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
  c-García  nf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Holloway    j  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Weber       j  ......    3   1   3   3   0   0   5   1   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  32  12  11   5   0   1  11   3  12   0   1  0.344
  2B: Weber 3 (24), Howell 2 (4).
  HR: Musil (1), off Osterloh.
  SB: Jones (2).
  HBP: Toone (2).
  a-Entered at LF in the 3rd.
  b-Entered at C in the 3rd.
  c-Entered at NF in the 9th.

NEW YORK ROYALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Kagawa (L, 2-2) .....    12    6  22%    7    6    6    0    3    0   33    -
Osterloh ............    14   14  52%    1    2    1    1    8    1   64  1-0
Magee ...............     9    5  19%    3    4    4    2    1    0   35    -

LIMA BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Musil (W) ...........    16   13  48%    3    2    2    1    7    0   54    -
Carrick .............    15   14  52%    1    2    2    2    1    0   50  1-1

  Batting order: Lima BC (home) batted second; New York Royals batted first.
  Seconds: NYR o25 (4-0), LB o25 (12-4).
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 91°F · Wind in · Overcast · Humid. seed 16490.
  Powerplays: Lima BC — García NF (O13)
  Walk-Back runs: off Osterloh 1.
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 9 Glen Wright-Phillips Marcus Morgan (2B) 1–0
T 10 Sean Magill Glen Wright-Phillips (3B) 2–0
T 13 Kisho Kagawa Murray Jack (3B) 3–0
T 24 Aleš Vydra Glen Wright-Phillips (3B) 4–0
B 0 Callum Toone Florian Weber (2B) 4–1
B 3 Waltclaire Howell Peter Taylor (1B) 4–2
B 3 Steeven Jones Waltclaire Howell (2B) 4–3
B 6 Florian Weber Steeven Jones (3B) 4–4
B 6 Florian Weber Daren Bachan (2B) 4–5
B 6 Florian Weber Callum Toone (1B) 4–6
B 15 Bohumil Musil Bohumil Musil (HR) 4–7
B 16 Manus Holloway Bohumil Musil (3B) 4–8
B 20 Steeven Jones Waltclaire Howell (2B) 4–9
B 23 Florian Weber Steeven Jones (3B) 4–10
B 23 Florian Weber Hanley García (1B) 4–11
B 24 Peter Taylor Manus Holloway (3B) 4–12
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Kompany Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 346' · CF 406' · RF 322' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill
New York Royals — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 2 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
346' 406' 322' Roy Green — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +0° · 75 ft Emile King — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -4° · 65 ft Marcus Morgan — double · EV 99 mph · LA +24° · 290 ft Aleš Vydra — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +35° · 319 ft Glen Wright-Phillips — triple · EV 104 mph · LA +21° · 287 ft Murray Jack — single · EV 78 mph · LA +10° · 84 ft Sean Magill — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +28° · 204 ft Kisho Kagawa — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +6° · 75 ft Nico Tasci — line_out · EV 91 mph · LA +11° · 123 ft Nico Tasci — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +22° · 249 ft Kisho Kagawa — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +30° · 246 ft Roy Green — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -7° · 77 ft Sean Magill — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -9° · 77 ft Murray Jack — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 96 ft Joe Clarke — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +51° · 331 ft Glen Wright-Phillips — single · EV 80 mph · LA +17° · 145 ft Joe Clarke — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +26° · 246 ft
Lima BC — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 5 1B · 5 XBH · 1 HR
346' 406' 322' Florian Weber — double · EV 98 mph · LA +22° · 268 ft Callum Toone — single · EV 97 mph · LA +5° · 92 ft Peter Taylor — single · EV 101 mph · LA +9° · 125 ft Donnacha Balbirnie — fly_out · EV 108 mph · LA +54° · 449 ft Waltclaire Howell — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 217 ft Steeven Jones — single · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 148 ft Daren Bachan — single · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft Bohumil Musil — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +35° · 462 ft Florian Weber — double · EV 115 mph · LA +20° · 344 ft Manus Holloway — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +13° · 135 ft Hanley García — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -8° · 64 ft Callum Toone — line_out · EV 73 mph · LA +13° · 92 ft Waltclaire Howell — double · EV 98 mph · LA +12° · 159 ft Steeven Jones — error · EV 87 mph · LA +6° · 83 ft Ctibor Černý — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -8° · 95 ft Florian Weber — double · EV 94 mph · LA +13° · 152 ft Manus Holloway — single · EV 95 mph · LA -4° · 91 ft Peter Taylor — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -12° · 80 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
New York Royals
21% deserve-to-win  ·  5.3 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -1.3 vs expected
contact: 10.7 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-3.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Glen Wright-Phillips 104 / +21° Pull Triple 1.6 → 3 +1.44
Aleš Vydra 92 / +35° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Nico Tasci 95 / +22° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.00
Nico Tasci 91 / +11° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
Joe Clarke 88 / +26° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.79
Lima BC
79% deserve-to-win  ·  10.1 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +1.9 vs expected
contact: 17.7 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 19.0 (+1.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Donnacha Balbirnie 108 / +54° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.35
Florian Weber 94 / +13° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Waltclaire Howell 98 / +12° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.82
Florian Weber 98 / +22° Oppo Double 1.3 → 2 +0.68
Manus Holloway 88 / +13° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →