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Auckland Tailors 27, Melbourne Baseball Club 22             2046-04-30 · #1357
at Sabra Grounds
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Melbourne              22      0   22   16    0
Auckland               27      -   27   18    0

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Balko       1b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Stott   pr ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Baccus      cf ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Brockie     2b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Sainsbu pr ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
Buchanon    lf ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.333
Mabil       rf ......    4   4   2   0   0   2   4   0   1   0   0  0.500
Lopez       ss ......    3   3   2   2   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.667
Frank       c  ......    3   2   2   1   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.667
  c-Brondel c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Reid        3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Lemanis     p  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
King        j  ......    4   3   1   0   0   1   2   1   0   0   0  0.250
Gurriel     j  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Talbot      j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  39  22  16   8   0   4  20   6   6   0   0  0.410
  2B: Balko (4), Brockie (1), Buchanon (3), Gurriel (11), Sainsbury (1), Lopez 2 (4), Frank (3).
  HR: King (2), off Bowen; Mabil 2 (2), off Delany, Adams; Frank (1), off Delany.
  SB: Baccus (1), King (4), Sainsbury 2 (4).
  CS: Sainsbury (3).
  a-Ran for Balko in the 1st.
  b-Ran for Brockie in the 1st.
  c-Replaced Frank at C in the 9th.

AUCKLAND TAILORS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Rangi       cf ......    3   5   2   0   0   1   3   2   0   0   0  0.667
Petratos    1b ......    5   3   2   1   0   1   6   0   1   0   0  0.400
Quiñones    rf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.500
Young       lf ......    5   1   3   1   1   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.600
White       3b ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   2   1   0   0  0.500
Rangi       c  ......    2   3   2   0   1   0   1   1   0   0   1  1.000
Davidson    2b ......    4   1   1   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.250
Parker      p  ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Rauf    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Brockie c  ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Reath       j  ......    4   3   1   0   0   1   3   1   1   0   0  0.250
Rivera      j  ......    4   4   4   1   0   0   5   1   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  35  27  18   3   2   4  25  12   7   0   1  0.514
  2B: Petratos (8), Young (7), Rivera (7).
  3B: Young (2), Rangi (1).
  HR: Rangi (2), off Taylor; Reath (4), off Yoganathan; Petratos (2), off Bosch; Davidson (2), off Bunge.
  SB: Rangi (8), Brockie (3), Young (1), Rivera 2 (10).
  CS: Rivera (8).
  HBP: Brockie (3), Quiñones (1).
  a-Grounded out for Brockie in the 8th.
  b-Entered at C in the 7th.

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Lemanis .............    13    7  26%    5    6    6    3    5    0   52    -
Yoganathan (L, 0-2) .     9    3  11%    5    7    7    2    0    1   35  1-1
Bosch ...............     4    0   0%    3    5    4    0    0    1    9  1-1
George ..............     7    4  15%    1    2    1    4    0    0   23  1-1
Bunge ...............     8    7  26%    2    4    4    2    1    1   21  3-1
Taylor ..............     5    4  15%    1    3    2    1    0    1   12  1-0
Burgess .............     2    2   7%    0    0    0    0    1    0    9    -

AUCKLAND TAILORS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Parker ..............     7    3  11%    3    3    3    1    0    0   21    -
Jackson .............     4    2   7%    2    2    2    0    1    0   17  1-1
Bowen ...............     4    2   7%    3    4    3    0    0    1   14  1-1
Delany ..............     6    3  11%    4    5    4    0    1    2   24  1-1
Adams ...............     8    6  22%    2    5    5    3    0    1   28  1-0
Taylor (W, 1-0) .....    13   11  41%    1    3    2    2    4    0   50  1-1

  Batting order: Auckland Tailors (home) batted second; Melbourne Baseball Club batted first.
  Seconds: MBC o26 (22-0).
  First pitch 6:30 PM PETT. Weather: 45°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 423880.
  Walk-Back runs: off Bosch 1, off George 1, off Taylor 1, off Bowen 1, off Delany 1, off Taylor 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 1 Iain Brockie Ivan Stott (2B) 1–0
T 2 Francois Buchanon Harry Sainsbury (2B) 2–0
T 2 Francois Buchanon Yunieski Gurriel (1B) 3–0
T 3 Josh Lopez Francois Buchanon (2B) 4–0
T 3 Kingi Frank Josh Lopez (2B) 5–0
T 4 Hilton Talbot Kingi Frank (2B) 6–0
T 6 Pat King Hilton Talbot (2B) 7–0
T 6 Pat King Pat King (HR) 8–0
T 6 Cameron Baccus Pat King (3B) 9–0
T 6 Yunieski Gurriel Cameron Baccus (1B) 10–0
T 9 Garang Mabil Garang Mabil (HR) 11–0
T 9 Josh Lopez Garang Mabil (3B) 12–0
T 9 Kingi Frank Josh Lopez (2B) 13–0
T 9 Kingi Frank Kingi Frank (HR) 14–0
T 13 Harry Sainsbury Lowanna Lemanis (3B) 15–0
T 13 Harry Sainsbury Ivan Stott (2B) 16–0
T 15 Garang Mabil Pat King (2B) 17–0
T 15 Garang Mabil Francois Buchanon (1B) 18–0
T 15 Garang Mabil Garang Mabil (HR) 19–0
T 15 Kingi Frank Garang Mabil (3B) 20–0
T 18 Ivan Stott Josh Lopez (3B) 21–0
T 19 Cameron Baccus Adam Reid (2B) 22–0
B 1 Gerardo Quiñones Grant Brockie (2B) 22–1
B 3 Martin White Colin Rangi (3B) 22–2
B 3 Shea Rangi Martin White (1B) 22–3
B 4 Joe Rivera Shea Rangi (3B) 22–4
B 7 Joe Rivera Bruno Reath (2B) 22–5
B 7 Joe Rivera Joe Rivera (1B) 22–6
B 7 Brendon Petratos Joe Rivera (3B) 22–7
B 7 Brendon Petratos Colin Rangi (1B) 22–8
B 7 Gerardo Quiñones Brendon Petratos (3B) 22–9
B 7 Alex Young Gerardo Quiñones (1B) 22–10
B 10 Bruno Reath Shea Rangi (2B) 22–11
B 10 Bruno Reath Ajdin Parker (1B) 22–12
B 10 Bruno Reath Bruno Reath (HR) 22–13
B 10 Joe Rivera Bruno Reath (3B) 22–14
B 10 Colin Rangi Joe Rivera (2B) 22–15
B 10 Brendon Petratos Grant Brockie (2B) 22–16
B 10 Brendon Petratos Colin Rangi (1B) 22–17
B 10 Brendon Petratos Brendon Petratos (HR) 22–18
B 10 Gerardo Quiñones Brendon Petratos (3B) 22–19
B 14 Joe Rivera Martin White (3B) 22–20
B 20 Alex Young Joe Rivera (3B) 22–21
B 21 Allan Davidson Alex Young (3B) 22–22
B 21 Allan Davidson Shea Rangi (1B) 22–23
B 21 Allan Davidson Allan Davidson (HR) 22–24
B 24 Colin Rangi Ajdin Parker (2B) 22–25
B 24 Colin Rangi Colin Rangi (HR) 22–26
B 24 Brendon Petratos Colin Rangi (3B) 22–27
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Sabra Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 462' · RF 357' · 11' wall). Cavernous.
Melbourne Baseball Club — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 3 1B · 8 XBH · 4 HR
341' 462' 357' Mario Balko — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 195 ft Cameron Baccus — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 310 ft Iain Brockie — double · EV 119 mph · LA +20° · 358 ft Francois Buchanon — double · EV 117 mph · LA +20° · 358 ft Josh Lopez — double · EV 100 mph · LA +36° · 378 ft Kingi Frank — double · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 142 ft Hilton Talbot — single · EV 80 mph · LA -9° · 76 ft Lowanna Lemanis — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +32° · 357 ft Yunieski Gurriel — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 228 ft Darren Brondello — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +28° · 192 ft Cameron Baccus — single · EV 88 mph · LA +16° · 169 ft Garang Mabil — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +49° · 480 ft Josh Lopez — double · EV 100 mph · LA +36° · 380 ft Kingi Frank — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +36° · 480 ft Adam Reid — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +34° · 288 ft Harry Sainsbury — double · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 306 ft Ivan Stott — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +34° · 288 ft Pat King — hr · EV 113 mph · LA +30° · 437 ft Garang Mabil — hr · EV 118 mph · LA +40° · 480 ft Harry Sainsbury — fielders_choice · EV 82 mph · LA -8° · 78 ft Yunieski Gurriel — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft Francois Buchanon — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +4° · 84 ft Cameron Baccus — single · EV 119 mph · LA +4° · 113 ft
Auckland Tailors — Batted Balls
26 BIP· 8 1B · 5 XBH · 4 HR
341' 462' 357' Gerardo Quiñones — single · EV 85 mph · LA +16° · 152 ft Martin White — single · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft Shea Rangi — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 189 ft Joe Rivera — single · EV 96 mph · LA +8° · 106 ft Colin Rangi — single · EV 91 mph · LA +24° · 249 ft Grant Brockie — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +9° · 76 ft Adeel Rauf — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +7° · 93 ft Brendon Petratos — double · EV 108 mph · LA +26° · 365 ft Alex Young — double · EV 114 mph · LA +20° · 336 ft Shea Rangi — single · EV 84 mph · LA -24° · 80 ft Allan Davidson — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA -8° · 95 ft Ajdin Parker — single · EV 87 mph · LA +18° · 174 ft Bruno Reath — hr · EV 112 mph · LA +27° · 413 ft Colin Rangi — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +22° · 197 ft Joe Rivera — double · EV 112 mph · LA +34° · 463 ft Brendon Petratos — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +29° · 463 ft Alex Young — single · EV 119 mph · LA +12° · 230 ft Allan Davidson — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA +23° · 246 ft Bruno Reath — fielders_choice · EV 77 mph · LA -23° · 73 ft Colin Rangi — hr · EV 115 mph · LA +42° · 480 ft Joe Rivera — single · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 189 ft Brendon Petratos — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA +28° · 329 ft Alex Young — triple · EV 96 mph · LA +13° · 161 ft Allan Davidson — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +26° · 450 ft Bruno Reath — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +28° · 316 ft Brendon Petratos — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -11° · 76 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Melbourne Baseball Club
30% deserve-to-win  ·  17.6 expected runs
actual 22 runs  ·  +4.4 vs expected
contact: 34.0 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 35.0 (+1.0 on contact)
running: 4 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Garang Mabil 119 / +49° Pull Home Run 1.7 → 4 +2.34
Cameron Baccus 100 / +25° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.43
Lowanna Lemanis 100 / +32° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.43
Adam Reid 88 / +34° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Ivan Stott 88 / +34° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Auckland Tailors
70% deserve-to-win  ·  26.9 expected runs
actual 27 runs  ·  +0.1 vs expected
contact: 35.7 est bases + 14 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 36.0 (+0.3 on contact)
running: 5 SB · 1 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Alex Young 96 / +13° Oppo Triple 1.2 → 3 +1.82
Shea Rangi 100 / +14° Oppo Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.74
Joe Rivera 112 / +34° Center Double 3.5 → 2 -1.49
Brendon Petratos 99 / +28° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Bruno Reath 98 / +28° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
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