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Pan Am Mountaineers 5, Brasília Stevedores 3                2046-05-01 · #1396
at Spite Hyyrynen Grounds
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                        1    R    H    E
Barquisimeto            5    5    4    1
Brasília                3    3    4    1

PAN AM MOUNTAINEERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Wanjiru     1b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Aedo        lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Catley      3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Feliz       c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Firmino     rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
Martins     2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
DeLuca      cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Rodríguez   ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Boucher     p  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Melo        j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Sampaio     j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Paniagua    j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   5   4   0   0   0   4   3  11   0   0  0.133
  E: Melo (2).
  GIDP: Wanjiru (3).


BRASÍLIA STEVEDORES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Núñez       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
Kobayashi-F lf ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Lawrick     c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Martine 3b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Watanab ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Delgado c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Guerra  c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Cruz    c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Encarna c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Saprissa    j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Polanco     j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cabrera     j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   3   4   0   0   0   3   6   9   0   1  0.160
  CS: Martinelli (1).
  E: Saprissa (2).
  GIDP: Delgado (2), Guerra (1).
  a-Entered at 3B in the 3rd.
  b-Entered at SS in the 3rd.
  c-Entered at C in the 3rd.
  d-Entered at C in the 4th.
  e-Entered at C in the 5th.
  f-Entered at C in the 6th.

PAN AM MOUNTAINEERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Boucher (W, 6-1) ....    31   27 100%    4    3    3    6    9    0  116    -

BRASÍLIA STEVEDORES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Núñez (L, 3-1) ......    20   15  56%    3    2    2    3    7    0   82    -
García ..............    11   10  37%    1    3    2    0    3    0   35  3-2
Encarnación .........     2    2   7%    0    0    0    0    1    0   10  1-0

  Batting order: Brasília Stevedores (home) batted second; Pan Am Mountaineers batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM. Weather: 85°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Light rain · Humid. seed 525433.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 15 James Catley Jack Boucher (3B) 1–0
T 15 Sérgio Firmino Abel Aedo (3B) 2–0
T 16 Augusto DeLuca James Catley (3B) 3–0
T 16 Jean Rodríguez Eloy Feliz (3B) 4–0
T 24 Sérgio Firmino Tom Wanjiru (2B) 5–0
B 14 Léonardo Martinelli Léonardo Martinelli (3B) 5–1
B 25 Renato Kobayashi-Ferreira Manny Cruz (3B) 5–2
B 25 Renato Kobayashi-Ferreira Jean Delgado (2B) 5–3
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Spite Hyyrynen Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 336' · CF 392' · RF 327' · 33' wall). Balanced.
Crow's Nest
Pan Am Mountaineers — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 4 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
336' 392' 327' Wall 33' Francisco Melo — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +12° · 106 ft Abel Aedo — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft James Catley — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 102 ft Néstor Paniagua — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA +2° · 58 ft Eloy Feliz — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA -6° · 66 ft Jack Boucher — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +29° · 198 ft Tom Wanjiru — double_play · EV 66 mph · LA +6° · 63 ft Abel Aedo — single · EV 78 mph · LA +10° · 84 ft Eloy Feliz — single · EV 79 mph · LA +20° · 161 ft Sérgio Firmino — single · EV 56 mph · LA +17° · 71 ft Augusto DeLuca — single · EV 78 mph · LA +12° · 102 ft Jean Rodríguez — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +9° · 76 ft Francisco Melo — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +48° · 336 ft Tom Wanjiru — error · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 104 ft Abel Aedo — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Eloy Feliz — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 165 ft Sérgio Firmino — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA -1° · 91 ft Néstor Paniagua — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft
Brasília Stevedores — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 4 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
336' 392' 327' Wall 33' Robinson Polanco — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -18° · 74 ft Junior Cabrera — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -5° · 81 ft Jean Delgado — double_play · EV 102 mph · LA +2° · 97 ft Renato Kobayashi-Ferreira — infield_single · EV 71 mph · LA +18° · 118 ft Albert Encarnación — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +41° · 229 ft Léonardo Martinelli — error · EV 78 mph · LA -5° · 74 ft Manny Cruz — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 118 ft Junior Cabrera — ground_out · EV 56 mph · LA -20° · 53 ft Wilmer Guerra — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +53° · 277 ft Igor Watanabe-Santos — single · EV 67 mph · LA +23° · 130 ft Nat Lawrick — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 83 ft Robinson Polanco — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA +5° · 49 ft Wilmer Guerra — double_play · EV 77 mph · LA -8° · 73 ft Renato Kobayashi-Ferreira — single · EV 60 mph · LA +13° · 62 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Pan Am Mountaineers
69% deserve-to-win  ·  4.1 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +0.9 vs expected
contact: 7.8 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-3.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
James Catley 88 / +10° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
Eloy Feliz 92 / +15° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
Sérgio Firmino 96 / -1° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.52
Francisco Melo 80 / +12° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.50
Abel Aedo 78 / +10° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
Brasília Stevedores
31% deserve-to-win  ·  2.8 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +0.2 vs expected
contact: 4.9 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-0.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Renato Kobayashi-Ferreira 60 / +13° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
Jean Delgado 102 / +2° Center Double Play 0.6 → 0 -0.57
Manny Cruz 76 / +15° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.50
Igor Watanabe-Santos 67 / +23° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
Nat Lawrick 76 / +10° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
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