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Maracay Auto Body 6, Aleksandrovsk Hawks 5                  2046-05-01 · #1404
at Álvarez Park
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                        1    R    H    E
Maracay                 6    6    4    0
Aleksandrovsk           5    5    6    1

MARACAY AUTO BODY
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Anuin       p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  1.000
  a-Wada    pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
An          3b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Bae         ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Triệu       lf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Sulaeman    2b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Mitoma      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Riley   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kang        rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Philawan    c  ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Fukui   c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Grebeny pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Behich      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Sun         j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Ishizu      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
Totals                  21   6   4   1   0   0   4   7   4   0   2  0.190
  2B: An (4).
  SB: Philawan (3).
  a-Ran for Anuin in the 7th.
  b-Grounded out for Mitoma in the 6th.
  c-Entered at C in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Fukui in the 5th.

ALEKSANDROVSK HAWKS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Zotov       c  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Pogrebn c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Sulfsted    1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Baburin 1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
Morozov     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Tatís   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Nikoyan     rf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Kravchuk    2b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Phillipsov  3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Bykov       ss ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Pérez   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Kasatki ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Sudakov pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Mondevi ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  h-Strelko pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  i-Guerrer pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Vasiliev    j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Madrigal    j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Kravchuk    j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  26   5   6   3   0   0   5   7  10   0   1  0.231
  2B: Zotov (1), Kravchuk (1), Mondevillin (2).
  SB: Kravchuk (3).
  CS: Tatís (5).
  E: Kravchuk (2).
  GIDP: Tatís (2).
  Squeeze: Baburin (1 RBI).
  a-Replaced Zotov at C in the 4th.
  b-Replaced Sulfsted at 1B in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Morozov in the 2nd.
  d-Ran for Bykov in the 4th.
  e-Walked in the 3rd.
  f-Ran for Kasatkina in the 3rd.
  g-Doubled in the 4th.
  h-Ran for Mondevillin in the 4th.
  i-Ran for Pogrebnyak in the 4th.

MARACAY AUTO BODY PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Anuin (W, 3-3) ......    32   26  96%    5    5    5    7   10    0  133    -
Yang ................     0    1   4%    0    0    0    0    0    0    1  3-0

ALEKSANDROVSK HAWKS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Moorin (L, 2-3) .....    18   16  59%    2    3    3    4    4    0   65    -
Yokuşlu .............     4    3  11%    1    2    2    1    0    0    8  2-1
Miyazawa ............     5    2   7%    1    1    1    2    0    0   14  1-1

  Batting order: Aleksandrovsk Hawks (home) batted first; Maracay Auto Body batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM VLAT. Weather: 70°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 854816.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 9 Mel Mondevillin Petr Kravchuk (2B) 0–1
B 12 Evgueni Baburin Fyodor Strelkov (3B) 0–2
B 15 Teymuraz Nikoyan Karl-Anthony Guerrero (3B) 0–3
B 20 Petr Kravchuk Teymuraz Nikoyan (3B) 0–4
B 20 Karl-Anthony Guerrero Yury Kravchuk (3B) 0–5
T 14 Giáp Triệu Wahyu Sulaeman (3B) 1–5
T 16 Ki-su An Tanaboon Philawan (3B) 2–5
T 16 Ki-su An Semyon Grebenyuk (3B) 3–5
T 16 Tanaboon Philawan Giáp Triệu (3B) 4–5
T 18 Semyon Grebenyuk Tanaboon Philawan (3B) 5–5
T 21 Hyon-min Sun Aoto Wada (3B) 6–5
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Álvarez Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 328' · CF 440' · RF 326' · 18' wall). Center-Field Triangle.
Maracay Auto Body — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
328' 440' 326' Wall 18' Brad Behich — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +30° · 220 ft Tsukasa Ishizu — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA +7° · 58 ft Hyun-soo Bae — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +26° · 186 ft Giáp Triệu — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +57° · 308 ft Masaaki Mitoma — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +34° · 213 ft Tanaboon Philawan — single · EV 52 mph · LA -9° · 49 ft Bryan Riley — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 143 ft Chai Anuin — single · EV 82 mph · LA +0° · 78 ft Semyon Grebenyuk — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -15° · 72 ft Ki-su An — double · EV 108 mph · LA +26° · 365 ft Tanaboon Philawan — error · EV 56 mph · LA -18° · 53 ft Giáp Triệu — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 108 ft Hyon-min Sun — single · EV 64 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Hyun-soo Bae — line_out · EV 53 mph · LA +12° · 60 ft
Aleksandrovsk Hawks — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 2 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
328' 440' 326' Wall 18' Valeriy Zotov — double · EV 103 mph · LA +18° · 242 ft Marat Vasiliev — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA +3° · 84 ft Kevin Madrigal — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -6° · 72 ft Whitney Sulfsted — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +24° · 175 ft Sergei Morozov — fielders_choice · EV 74 mph · LA -8° · 70 ft Yury Kravchuk — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 105 ft Petr Kravchuk — single · EV 96 mph · LA -3° · 91 ft Mel Mondevillin — double · EV 96 mph · LA +35° · 349 ft Bartolo Tatís — double_play · EV 68 mph · LA +24° · 137 ft Sergiy Sudakov — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +32° · 247 ft Karl-Anthony Guerrero — fielders_choice · EV 74 mph · LA +8° · 71 ft Teymuraz Nikoyan — single · EV 84 mph · LA +13° · 121 ft Yury Kravchuk — double · EV 91 mph · LA +17° · 182 ft Teymuraz Nikoyan — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +12° · 118 ft Yury Kravchuk — fielders_choice · EV 75 mph · LA +0° · 71 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Maracay Auto Body
42% deserve-to-win  ·  6.0 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 6.8 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-1.8 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Tanaboon Philawan 52 / -9° Oppo Single 0.1 → 1 +0.86
Bryan Riley 92 / +12° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
Chai Anuin 82 / +0° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Hyon-min Sun 64 / +10° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
Giáp Triệu 76 / +14° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.51
Aleksandrovsk Hawks
58% deserve-to-win  ·  7.1 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -2.1 vs expected
contact: 9.5 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-1.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Yury Kravchuk 91 / +17° Oppo Double 1.0 → 2 +0.99
Yury Kravchuk 88 / +10° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.62
Teymuraz Nikoyan 86 / +12° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.62
Whitney Sulfsted 77 / +24° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.60
Bartolo Tatís 68 / +24° Pull Double Play 0.5 → 0 -0.50
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