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Maturín Wolves 20, Ola Knights 6                            2046-05-01 · #1406
at Cele Park
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Maturín                20      -   20   20    0
Ola                     6      0    6    4    0

MATURÍN WOLVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Roark       2b ......    4   3   3   3   0   0   4   1   0   0   0  0.750
Bolder      1b ......    4   4   3   0   0   1   5   1   0   0   0  0.750
Keeley      3b ......    4   2   4   3   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Chien       ss ......    4   0   2   2   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.500
Oviedo      lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Golden      cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Feliz       rf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Schnack     p  ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.500
  a-Marte   c  ......    3   4   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.667
Elarms-Orr  j  ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Cabrera     j  ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  40  20  20  11   0   1  20   7   8   0   0  0.500
  2B: Roark 3 (13), Marte (4), Keeley 3 (5), Chien 2 (5), Cabrera (5), Schnack (1).
  HR: Bolder (7), off Alexandrova.
  SB: Marte (2), Feliz (1).
  GIDP: Oviedo (2).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

OLA KNIGHTS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
MacDonaldov cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Mayberr pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Nelsonov    ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Ju          1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Vatutin pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Kirillov    3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Viera       rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Pogorelova  2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Smolov      p  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  c-Muzaev  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Fedorov pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  e-Guerrer ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  f-Ávalos  ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Bychkov pr ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Marchenko   j  ......    4   1   1   0   1   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.250
Sumarokov-E j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   6   4   1   1   0   5   7  16   0   0  0.143
  2B: Bychkova (2).
  3B: Marchenko (2).
  CS: Fedorova (2).
  a-Ran for MacDonaldov in the 1st.
  b-Ran for Ju in the 4th.
  c-Walked in the 1st.
  d-Ran for Muzaev in the 1st.
  e-Batted for Sumarokov-Elston in the 3rd.
  f-Entered at SS in the 4th.
  g-Ran for Ávalos in the 4th.

MATURÍN WOLVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Schnack (W, 1-0) ....    23   19  70%    2    5    5    4   11    0   88    -
Quinteros ...........    10    8  30%    0    1    1    3    5    0   35  1-1

OLA KNIGHTS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Smolov ..............     4    0   0%    2    3    3    2    0    0   12    -
Gasanova ............     8    6  22%    2    2    2    1    5    0   36  1-0
Baguma ..............     7    4  15%    4    3    3    0    1    0   27  1-1
Tchernenko ..........     6    1   4%    2    4    4    3    1    0   28  1-1
Alexandrova (L, 0-1)     10    7  26%    5    6    6    1    0    1   44  2-2
Brandl ..............    11    8  30%    4    2    1    0    1    0   36  1-1

  Batting order: Ola Knights (home) batted first; Maturín Wolves batted second.
  Seconds: MW o26 (20-6), OK o26 (6-0).
  First pitch 6:00 PM MAGT. Weather: 40°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 737422.
  Walk-Back runs: off Brandl 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 10 Mykhailo Marchenko Ruslan Vatutin (2B) 0–1
B 17 Teymuraz Smolov Mykhailo Marchenko (3B) 0–2
B 17 Mykhailo Marchenko Yaroslav Sumarokov-Elston (3B) 0–3
B 18 Kirill Bychkova Teymuraz Smolov (2B) 0–4
B 18 Kirill Bychkova Kirill Bychkova (3B) 0–5
B 23 Savriyan Pogorelova Kirill Bychkova (3B) 0–6
T 0 Ian Roark Ronny Marte (1B) 1–6
T 0 Sheng-feng Chien Ian Roark (3B) 2–6
T 0 Sheng-feng Chien Rand Bolder (1B) 3–6
T 3 Brian Keeley Charles Elarms-Orr (1B) 4–6
T 6 Ronny Marte Brian Keeley (2B) 5–6
T 7 Rand Bolder Ronny Marte (3B) 6–6
T 10 Brian Keeley Charles Elarms-Orr (2B) 7–6
T 10 Brian Keeley Sandy Cabrera (1B) 8–6
T 11 Kobe Schnack Brian Keeley (3B) 9–6
T 11 Kobe Schnack Angel Golden (2B) 10–6
T 11 Rand Bolder Kobe Schnack (3B) 11–6
T 11 Rand Bolder Ronny Marte (2B) 12–6
T 13 Sandy Cabrera Ian Roark (2B) 13–6
T 13 Sandy Cabrera Rand Bolder (1B) 14–6
T 18 Ian Roark Kobe Schnack (2B) 15–6
T 18 Ian Roark Ronny Marte (1B) 16–6
T 18 Rand Bolder Ian Roark (2B) 17–6
T 18 Rand Bolder Rand Bolder (HR) 18–6
T 18 Sheng-feng Chien Rand Bolder (3B) 19–6
T 25 Ian Roark Starlin Feliz (2B) 20–6
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Cele Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 276' · CF 369' · RF 282' · 9' wall). The Bandbox.
Scoreboard Clock
Maturín Wolves — Batted Balls
25 BIP· 7 1B · 11 XBH · 1 HR
276' 369' 282' Ian Roark — double · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 179 ft Sheng-feng Chien — double · EV 96 mph · LA +31° · 324 ft Brian Keeley — double · EV 100 mph · LA +32° · 358 ft Ronny Marte — double · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 270 ft Rand Bolder — single · EV 97 mph · LA +19° · 234 ft Charles Elarms-Orr — single · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 223 ft Sandy Cabrera — single · EV 117 mph · LA +10° · 179 ft Brian Keeley — double · EV 111 mph · LA +13° · 220 ft Kobe Schnack — double · EV 118 mph · LA +22° · 387 ft Rand Bolder — single · EV 87 mph · LA +35° · 285 ft Angel Golden — fielders_choice · EV 104 mph · LA +9° · 130 ft Sandy Cabrera — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 231 ft Warren Oviedo — double_play · EV 88 mph · LA -9° · 84 ft Brian Keeley — double · EV 119 mph · LA +13° · 241 ft Starlin Feliz — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA +2° · 70 ft Kobe Schnack — single · EV 75 mph · LA +1° · 71 ft Ian Roark — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 225 ft Rand Bolder — hr · EV 113 mph · LA +49° · 480 ft Charles Elarms-Orr — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +25° · 219 ft Ronny Marte — line_out · EV 64 mph · LA +19° · 101 ft Sheng-feng Chien — double · EV 110 mph · LA +17° · 269 ft Brian Keeley — infield_single · EV 79 mph · LA +20° · 161 ft Starlin Feliz — single · EV 88 mph · LA +16° · 162 ft Ian Roark — double · EV 119 mph · LA +15° · 278 ft Rand Bolder — line_out · EV 68 mph · LA +13° · 78 ft
Ola Knights — Batted Balls
9 BIP· 0 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
276' 369' 282' Mykhailo Marchenko — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -0° · 81 ft Amir Nelsonov — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -9° · 78 ft Matvei Kirillov — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -14° · 73 ft Jean Viera — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 314 ft Kirill Bychkova — double · EV 94 mph · LA +14° · 168 ft Mykhailo Marchenko — triple · EV 99 mph · LA +15° · 200 ft Jean Viera — line_out · EV 87 mph · LA +3° · 82 ft Mykhailo Marchenko — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +14° · 141 ft Jean Viera — line_out · EV 97 mph · LA +15° · 189 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Maturín Wolves
96% deserve-to-win  ·  17.0 expected runs
actual 20 runs  ·  +3.0 vs expected
contact: 27.9 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 33.0 (+5.1 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rand Bolder 113 / +49° Center Home Run 1.7 → 4 +2.34
Angel Golden 104 / +9° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.26
Sheng-feng Chien 96 / +31° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.83
Ian Roark 100 / +13° Pull Double 1.3 → 2 +0.74
Kobe Schnack 75 / +1° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Ola Knights
4% deserve-to-win  ·  3.7 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +2.3 vs expected
contact: 6.3 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-1.3 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mykhailo Marchenko 99 / +15° Pull Triple 1.2 → 3 +1.82
Jean Viera 97 / +15° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Jean Viera 100 / +26° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Kirill Bychkova 94 / +14° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Mykhailo Marchenko 88 / +14° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
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