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Caracas Independence Brewery 4, San Cristóbal Navy 3        2046-05-02 · #1414
at San Cristóbal Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
Caracas                 4    4    7    0
San Cristóbal           3    3    5    0

CARACAS INDEPENDENCE BREWERY
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Marte       c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Almonte     lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Solano      cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cruz        1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Núñez   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Castillo    rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Sosa    3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Inoue   ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Calabre ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Goodwin lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Báez    ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Vargas  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Dhlamin ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Porozo      j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Maeda-Silva j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.333
Totals                  24   4   7   1   0   1   3   2   6   0   0  0.292
  2B: Calabrese (13).
  HR: Maeda-Silva (7), off Adames.
  CS: Marte (5).
  GIDP: Vargas (1).
  a-Struck out for Cruz in the 6th.
  b-Entered at 3B in the 4th.
  c-Entered at SS in the 7th.
  d-Doubled in the 3rd.
  e-Entered at LF in the 9th.
  f-Walked for Inoue in the 5th.
  g-Ran for Calabrese in the 5th.
  h-Singled for Sosa in the 5th.

SAN CRISTÓBAL NAVY
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Scarpa      cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Cronje  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Sin         lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Yamamoto    c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Castill pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Messi       1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Ramón   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Marsden     3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Correia ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Santos      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Yamamoto-Pe rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Frías       2b ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Feliz   2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Bauer       p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Yamamot pr ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  g-Geraldo lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  h-Bautist c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  i-Difo    lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  j-Álvarez ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Feliz       j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Kemppi      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Encarnación j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   3   5   2   0   0   1   4   6   0   0  0.179
  2B: Frías (5), Yamamoto-Silva (3).
  SB: Difo (3).
  CS: Feliz (9), Sin (5).
  GIDP: Correia (1).
  a-Ran for Scarpa in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Yamamoto in the 5th.
  c-Batted for Messi in the 5th.
  d-Grounded out for Marsden in the 6th.
  e-Replaced Frías at 2B in the 7th.
  f-Ran for Bauer in the 4th.
  g-Entered at LF in the 5th.
  h-Replaced Feliz at C in the 7th.
  i-Replaced Encarnación at LF in the 8th.
  j-Grounded out in the 9th.

CARACAS INDEPENDENCE BREWERY PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Liriano (W, 4-0) ....    31   26  96%    5    3    3    4    6    0   91    -
Viscarra ............     1    1   4%    0    0    0    0    0    0    4  2-0

SAN CRISTÓBAL NAVY PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bauer ...............    17   14  52%    4    0    0    2    3    0   70    -
Adames (L, 1-2) .....     9    8  30%    3    4    4    0    3    1   32  3-1

  Batting order: San Cristóbal Navy (home) batted first; Caracas Independence Brewery batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM. Weather: 63°F · Wind out · Overcast · Light rain · Humid. seed 931182.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 11 Tuomas Kemppi Manny Frías (3B) 0–1
B 11 Tuomas Kemppi Hiroshi Yamamoto-Silva (3B) 0–2
B 15 Enzo Correia Gary Cronje (3B) 0–3
T 17 Vladimir Marte Alessandro Vargas (3B) 1–3
T 22 Renato Maeda-Silva Hernesto Porozo (2B) 2–3
T 22 Renato Maeda-Silva Adrián Almonte (1B) 3–3
T 22 Renato Maeda-Silva Renato Maeda-Silva (HR) 4–3
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to San Cristóbal Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 290' · CF 430' · RF 331' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Left).
Caracas Independence Brewery — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
290' 430' 331' Adrián Almonte — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +36° · 223 ft Felipe Inoue — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +22° · 247 ft Hernesto Porozo — fly_out · EV 93 mph · LA +28° · 283 ft Garang Goodwin — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA +7° · 51 ft Vladimir Marte — single · EV 58 mph · LA -4° · 55 ft Dagoberto Castillo — single · EV 78 mph · LA +15° · 123 ft Jefferson Calabrese — double · EV 92 mph · LA +33° · 311 ft Hamidou Dhlamini — single · EV 77 mph · LA +25° · 183 ft Alessandro Vargas — double_play · EV 79 mph · LA +10° · 84 ft Gerardo Solano — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +34° · 213 ft Renato Maeda-Silva — line_out · EV 65 mph · LA +25° · 132 ft Vladimir Marte — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA +6° · 57 ft Hernesto Porozo — single · EV 98 mph · LA +18° · 234 ft Gerardo Solano — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA -1° · 62 ft Adrián Almonte — single · EV 87 mph · LA +23° · 219 ft Renato Maeda-Silva — hr · EV 102 mph · LA +41° · 416 ft
San Cristóbal Navy — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
290' 430' 331' Min-chol Sin — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 122 ft Akira Yamamoto — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +30° · 200 ft Tuomas Kemppi — ground_out · EV 59 mph · LA -8° · 56 ft Vladimir Encarnación — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA -4° · 55 ft Rodolfo Messi — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 107 ft Ivan Marsden — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Sho Yamamoto-Pereira — ground_out · EV 55 mph · LA +1° · 52 ft Manny Frías — double · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 208 ft Yefri Ramón — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 165 ft Enzo Correia — double_play · EV 56 mph · LA -8° · 53 ft Cristian Feliz — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +0° · 49 ft Hiroshi Yamamoto-Silva — double · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 129 ft Eulis Bautista — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -8° · 49 ft Aramis Difo — fielders_choice · EV 67 mph · LA -2° · 64 ft Éder Scarpa — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 117 ft Tuomas Kemppi — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +22° · 75 ft Vladimir Encarnación — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -16° · 49 ft Sho Yamamoto-Pereira — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA -2° · 51 ft Ketel Feliz — single · EV 60 mph · LA +1° · 57 ft Vladimir Encarnación — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Caracas Independence Brewery
68% deserve-to-win  ·  4.0 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 9.6 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (+1.4 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Renato Maeda-Silva 102 / +41° Oppo Home Run 2.5 → 4 +1.47
Felipe Inoue 95 / +22° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.01
Jefferson Calabrese 92 / +33° Oppo Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Vladimir Marte 58 / -4° Oppo Single 0.1 → 1 +0.86
Hernesto Porozo 93 / +28° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.79
San Cristóbal Navy
32% deserve-to-win  ·  2.7 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +0.3 vs expected
contact: 6.7 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (+0.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-1.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Hiroshi Yamamoto-Silva 92 / +11° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Manny Frías 92 / +19° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.99
Ketel Feliz 60 / +1° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.86
Yefri Ramón 76 / +23° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.60
Min-chol Sin 76 / +16° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
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