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Hermosillo Royals 44, Graz Broncos 8                        2046-05-02 · #1417
at Edwards Field
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                        1    R    H    E
Hermosillo             44   44   34    0
Graz                    8    8   10    0

HERMOSILLO ROYALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mbeumo      cf ......    5   5   3   0   0   2   5   1   0   0   0  0.600
Alozie      1b ......    6   4   4   2   0   0   5   0   0   0   0  0.667
Andonovski  rf ......    5   4   3   2   0   1   3   1   1   0   0  0.600
Chadli      2b ......    5   4   4   3   0   1   5   1   0   0   0  0.800
Wyk         c  ......    6   4   2   1   0   1   2   0   2   0   0  0.333
Fathy       p  ......    4   2   1   0   1   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.250
Bensebaini  lf ......    5   4   5   4   0   0   6   1   0   0   0  1.000
Ravoahangy  3b ......    6   8   6   3   0   2   8   0   0   0   0  1.000
Selemani    ss ......    5   7   3   0   0   2   5   1   0   0   0  0.600
Kruger      j  ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Agarwal     j  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Abreha      j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  53  44  34  16   1   9  41   6   4   0   0  0.642
  2B: Alozie 2 (5), Andonovski 2 (9), Kruger (7), Chadli 3 (5), Wyk (2), Bensebaini 4 (20), Ravoahangy 3 (7).
  3B: Fathy (1).
  HR: Mbeumo 2 (8), off Mthembu, Vaclík; Andonovski (4), off Robert; Chadli (3), off Vaclík; Wyk (1), off Cabral; Ravoahangy 2 (6), off Mahrez, Vovk; Selemani 2 (8), off Mahrez, Vovk.
  SB: Chadli (3), Wyk (1).
  CS: Kruger 2 (3), Chadli (2), Fathy (1), Bensebaini 2 (6).
  HBP: Agarwal (1), Fathy (1), Selemani (4).


GRAZ BRONCOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Naidji      lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Javed   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ngculu      cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Jadhav  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Abebe       1b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Schiffm ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kebede      3b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0  0.500
  d-Webó    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Stalder     rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
  e-Gueye   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ndour       c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Mthembu     p  ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
  f-Covilhã c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
  g-Ndlovu  ss ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Hakimi  ph ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Mazarura    j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bothma      j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Collins     j  ......    3   1   2   2   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.667
Totals                  31   8  10   3   0   0   7   3  11   1   1  0.323
  2B: Collins 2 (14), Hakimi (7).
  SB: Abebe (4).
  HBP: Naidji (2).
  GIDP: Schiffman (1).
  a-Ran for Naidji in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Ngculu in the 7th.
  c-Batted for Abebe in the 4th.
  d-Struck out for Kebede in the 8th.
  e-Batted for Stalder in the 5th.
  f-Entered at C in the 7th.
  g-Entered at SS in the 9th.
  h-Doubled for Ndlovu in the 9th.

HERMOSILLO ROYALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Fathy ...............    13   10  37%    3    1    1    1    5    0   53    -
Paintsil (W, 1-0) ...    15   12  44%    4    3    3    2    3    0   55  3-0
Soliman (F, 20) .....     7    5  19%    3    4    4    0    3    0   28  3-3

GRAZ BRONCOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Mthembu .............     4    1   4%    3    3    3    0    0    1   10    -
Cabral ..............     4    2   7%    3    3    3    0    1    1   12  1-0
Ryang ...............     8    3  11%    5    5    4    0    0    0   31  1-1
Sherif (L, 1-1) .....     7    1   4%    4    6    6    2    0    0   21  1-0
Vaclík ..............     8    3  11%    4    7    6    0    1    2   24  1-1
Robert ..............     6    0   0%    4    6    4    1    0    1   18  1-1
Mahrez ..............     4    0   0%    4    7    6    0    0    2    9  2-2
Vovk ................    12    9  33%    3    5    3    1    1    2   36  1-1
Trabelsi ............    10    8  30%    4    2    1    2    1    0   48  1-1

  Batting order: Graz Broncos (home) batted second; Hermosillo Royals batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM. Weather: 87°F · Wind out · Overcast. seed 898612.
  Powerplays: Graz Broncos — Webó NF (O2)
  Walk-Back runs: off Ryang 1, off Vaclík 1, off Robert 2, off Mahrez 1, off Vovk 2, off Trabelsi 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 0 Issa Mbeumo Issa Mbeumo (HR) 1–0
T 1 Omni Andonovski Leonel Alozie (1B) 2–0
T 1 Ivan Kruger Omni Andonovski (2B) 3–0
T 3 Mustapha Chadli Sintayehu Abreha (1B) 4–0
T 3 Hansie van Wyk Mustapha Chadli (2B) 5–0
T 3 Hansie van Wyk Hansie van Wyk (HR) 6–0
T 4 Gaya Bensebaini Hansie van Wyk (3B) 7–0
T 4 Fredrick Selemani Gaya Bensebaini (3B) 8–0
T 5 Issa Mbeumo Soa Ravoahangy (3B) 9–0
T 5 Leonel Alozie Issa Mbeumo (1B) 10–0
T 6 Mustapha Chadli Leonel Alozie (2B) 11–0
T 7 Ayman Fathy Hansie van Wyk (2B) 12–0
T 7 Gaya Bensebaini Ayman Fathy (3B) 13–0
T 7 Soa Ravoahangy Gaya Bensebaini (2B) 14–0
T 7 Leonel Alozie Soa Ravoahangy (3B) 15–0
T 7 Leonel Alozie Fredrick Selemani (2B) 16–0
T 7 Leonel Alozie Issa Mbeumo (1B) 17–0
T 8 Mustapha Chadli Leonel Alozie (2B) 18–0
T 8 Mustapha Chadli Mustapha Chadli (HR) 19–0
T 10 Gaya Bensebaini Mustapha Chadli (3B) 20–0
T 10 Soa Ravoahangy Gaya Bensebaini (2B) 21–0
T 10 Issa Mbeumo Soa Ravoahangy (2B) 22–0
T 10 Issa Mbeumo Fredrick Selemani (1B) 23–0
T 10 Issa Mbeumo Issa Mbeumo (HR) 24–0
T 10 Leonel Alozie Issa Mbeumo (3B) 25–0
T 10 Omni Andonovski Leonel Alozie (1B) 26–0
T 10 Omni Andonovski Omni Andonovski (HR) 27–0
T 10 Mustapha Chadli Omni Andonovski (3B) 28–0
T 10 Gaya Bensebaini Mustapha Chadli (3B) 29–0
T 10 Gaya Bensebaini Ayman Fathy (1B) 30–0
T 10 Soa Ravoahangy Hansie van Wyk (3B) 31–0
T 10 Soa Ravoahangy Gaya Bensebaini (2B) 32–0
T 10 Fredrick Selemani Soa Ravoahangy (1B) 33–0
T 10 Fredrick Selemani Fredrick Selemani (HR) 34–0
T 10 Fredrick Selemani Fredrick Selemani (3B) 35–0
T 10 Soa Ravoahangy Fredrick Selemani (1B) 36–0
T 10 Soa Ravoahangy Soa Ravoahangy (HR) 37–0
T 10 Ayman Fathy Soa Ravoahangy (3B) 38–0
T 19 Fredrick Selemani Omni Andonovski (3B) 39–0
T 19 Fredrick Selemani Fredrick Selemani (HR) 40–0
T 19 Soa Ravoahangy Fredrick Selemani (3B) 41–0
T 19 Soa Ravoahangy Soa Ravoahangy (HR) 42–0
T 19 Gaya Bensebaini Soa Ravoahangy (3B) 43–0
T 23 Mustapha Chadli Sourav Agarwal (1B) 44–0
B 9 Athenkosi Mthembu Bezabeh Abebe (3B) 44–1
B 15 Henry Ndour Arshad Javed (2B) 44–2
B 15 Garang Collins Shimeket Kebede (3B) 44–3
B 15 Garang Collins Phathisa Ndlovu (2B) 44–4
B 24 Sofiane Hakimi Henry Ndour (3B) 44–5
B 24 Sofiane Hakimi Garang Collins (2B) 44–6
B 24 Garang Collins Pradip Jadhav (3B) 44–7
B 25 Henry Ndour Sofiane Hakimi (3B) 44–8
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Edwards Field's actual outfield dimensions (LF 278' · CF 358' · RF 290' · 12' wall). The Bandbox.
Hermosillo Royals — Batted Balls
45 BIP· 8 1B · 17 XBH · 9 HR
278' 358' 290' Issa Mbeumo — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +27° · 461 ft Leonel Alozie — fielders_choice · EV 87 mph · LA +10° · 101 ft Omni Andonovski — double · EV 90 mph · LA +36° · 309 ft Ivan Kruger — double · EV 119 mph · LA +16° · 300 ft Sintayehu Abreha — single · EV 118 mph · LA +11° · 217 ft Mustapha Chadli — double · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 313 ft Hansie van Wyk — hr · EV 90 mph · LA +33° · 295 ft Ayman Fathy — line_out · EV 101 mph · LA +15° · 203 ft Gaya Bensebaini — single · EV 98 mph · LA +21° · 256 ft Soa Ravoahangy — double · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 308 ft Issa Mbeumo — single · EV 88 mph · LA +17° · 173 ft Leonel Alozie — double · EV 112 mph · LA +16° · 272 ft Omni Andonovski — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +18° · 166 ft Mustapha Chadli — double · EV 88 mph · LA +39° · 303 ft Hansie van Wyk — fielders_choice · EV 97 mph · LA -12° · 92 ft Ayman Fathy — triple · EV 101 mph · LA +13° · 181 ft Gaya Bensebaini — double · EV 119 mph · LA +22° · 395 ft Soa Ravoahangy — double · EV 110 mph · LA +13° · 210 ft Fredrick Selemani — hr · EV 106 mph · LA +35° · 428 ft Sourav Agarwal — line_out · EV 109 mph · LA +17° · 268 ft Sintayehu Abreha — ground_out · EV 112 mph · LA +9° · 162 ft Ivan Kruger — single · EV 100 mph · LA +2° · 95 ft Leonel Alozie — double · EV 106 mph · LA +23° · 316 ft Mustapha Chadli — hr · EV 97 mph · LA +44° · 377 ft Gaya Bensebaini — double · EV 103 mph · LA +10° · 145 ft Soa Ravoahangy — double · EV 98 mph · LA +22° · 268 ft Issa Mbeumo — hr · EV 112 mph · LA +27° · 406 ft Fredrick Selemani — single · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 303 ft Leonel Alozie — single · EV 81 mph · LA +19° · 164 ft Omni Andonovski — hr · EV 94 mph · LA +43° · 356 ft Hansie van Wyk — double · EV 119 mph · LA +13° · 254 ft Gaya Bensebaini — double · EV 102 mph · LA +18° · 250 ft Soa Ravoahangy — single · EV 100 mph · LA -3° · 95 ft Ayman Fathy — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +7° · 95 ft Mustapha Chadli — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +18° · 173 ft Issa Mbeumo — line_out · EV 115 mph · LA +15° · 263 ft Fredrick Selemani — hr · EV 109 mph · LA +38° · 459 ft Soa Ravoahangy — hr · EV 112 mph · LA +38° · 480 ft Omni Andonovski — double · EV 93 mph · LA +32° · 307 ft Leonel Alozie — line_out · EV 105 mph · LA +23° · 315 ft Gaya Bensebaini — double · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 252 ft Mustapha Chadli — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 224 ft Fredrick Selemani — line_out · EV 110 mph · LA +20° · 320 ft Soa Ravoahangy — hr · EV 113 mph · LA +30° · 444 ft Leonel Alozie — single · EV 90 mph · LA -15° · 85 ft
Graz Broncos — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 7 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
278' 358' 290' Percy Ngculu — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 204 ft Phathisa Ndlovu — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +27° · 272 ft Athenkosi Mthembu — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 139 ft Mitty Schiffman — double_play · EV 60 mph · LA -14° · 57 ft Sofiane Naidji — single · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 109 ft Sofiane Hakimi — double · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 234 ft Percy Ngculu — single · EV 79 mph · LA +26° · 196 ft Nelson Covilhã — single · EV 92 mph · LA +4° · 87 ft Shimeket Kebede — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -7° · 72 ft Henry Ndour — single · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 87 ft Garang Collins — double · EV 92 mph · LA +32° · 306 ft Peter Bothma — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +27° · 185 ft Wellington Mazarura — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Athenkosi Mthembu — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +21° · 72 ft Chimezie Gueye — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 122 ft Shimeket Kebede — single · EV 52 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Wellington Mazarura — ground_out · EV 53 mph · LA +1° · 50 ft Garang Collins — double · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 176 ft Athenkosi Mthembu — single · EV 52 mph · LA -15° · 49 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Hermosillo Royals
97% deserve-to-win  ·  33.6 expected runs
actual 44 runs  ·  +10.4 vs expected
contact: 66.5 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 79.0 (+12.5 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 6 CS (-3.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Hansie van Wyk 90 / +33° Oppo Home Run 1.0 → 4 +2.97
Omni Andonovski 94 / +43° Pull Home Run 1.2 → 4 +2.78
Mustapha Chadli 97 / +44° Center Home Run 1.9 → 4 +2.05
Ayman Fathy 101 / +13° Pull Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.74
Sourav Agarwal 109 / +17° Center Out 1.7 → 0 -1.70
Graz Broncos
3% deserve-to-win  ·  6.0 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +2.0 vs expected
contact: 10.0 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (+3.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Garang Collins 92 / +16° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Percy Ngculu 92 / +18° Oppo Out 1.0 → 0 -1.00
Sofiane Hakimi 92 / +22° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +1.00
Garang Collins 92 / +32° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Athenkosi Mthembu 52 / -15° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.85
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