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Maracay Auto Body 9, Aleksandrovsk Hawks 3                  2046-05-02 · #1420
at Álvarez Park
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                        1    R    H    E
Maracay                 9    9    6    0
Aleksandrovsk           3    3    6    0

MARACAY AUTO BODY
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Stewart     cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   1  0.000
Bae         ss ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Grebenyuk   lf ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Mitoma      1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Riley   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Đức         rf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
An          3b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Kang        2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Sulaema ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Philawan    c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.000
Syed        p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Moylan  pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Behich      j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Sun         j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Ishizu      j  ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  28   9   6   0   0   0   8   8  11   0   1  0.214
  SB: Grebenyuk (2), Ishizu (9).
  HBP: An (1).
  GIDP: Behich (4).
  a-Struck out for Mitoma in the 8th.
  b-Walked for Kang in the 9th.
  c-Ran for Syed in the 5th.

ALEKSANDROVSK HAWKS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Bykov       ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Zotov       c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Morozov     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Kasatki ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Rudnev      3b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Pogrebnyak  cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Safin       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.000
  b-Strelko 3b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Cao     ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  d-Mondevi c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  e-Carnell ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Madrigal    j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Vasiliev    j  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.333
Kravchuk    j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   3   6   1   0   0   3   1   9   0   1  0.200
  2B: Vasiliev (4).
  SB: Mondevillin (2).
  CS: Mondevillin (1).
  GIDP: Kravchuk (3).
  a-Grounded out for Morozov in the 8th.
  b-Entered at 3B in the 3rd.
  c-Entered at SS in the 3rd.
  d-Entered at C in the 7th.
  e-Struck out for Kravchuk in the 8th.

MARACAY AUTO BODY PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Syed (W, 1-2) .......    30   27 100%    5    3    3    1    9    0   88    -

ALEKSANDROVSK HAWKS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Safin ...............    11   10  37%    3    2    2    1    2    0   36    -
Pepelyaeva (L, 0-2) .    15    9  33%    2    4    4    5    4    0   54  1-0
Touchardov ..........    10    8  30%    0    3    1    2    5    0   38  3-2

  Batting order: Aleksandrovsk Hawks (home) batted second; Maracay Auto Body batted first.
  First pitch 6:00 PM VLAT. Weather: 53°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Light rain. seed 884923.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 6 Ki-su An Tsukasa Ishizu (3B) 1–0
T 9 Dudley Stewart Tanaboon Philawan (3B) 2–0
T 13 Masaaki Mitoma Billy Moylan (3B) 3–0
T 14 Phong Đức Semyon Grebenyuk (3B) 4–0
T 19 Hyun-soo Bae Tsukasa Ishizu (3B) 5–0
T 19 Semyon Grebenyuk Phong Đức (3B) 6–0
T 24 Wahyu Sulaeman Dudley Stewart (3B) 7–0
T 24 Tanaboon Philawan Hyun-soo Bae (3B) 8–0
T 24 Tanaboon Philawan Ki-su An (2B) 9–0
B 12 Marat Vasiliev Fyodor Strelkov (3B) 9–1
B 12 Marat Vasiliev Valeriy Zotov (1B) 9–2
B 20 Valeriy Zotov Ostap Rudnev (3B) 9–3
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Álvarez Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 328' · CF 440' · RF 326' · 18' wall). Center-Field Triangle.
Maracay Auto Body — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
328' 440' 326' Wall 18' Hyun-soo Bae — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -5° · 87 ft Brad Behich — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft Hyon-min Sun — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 69 ft Tsukasa Ishizu — single · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Masaaki Mitoma — single · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Ki-su An — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 104 ft Min-soo Kang — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -16° · 72 ft Taufik Syed — single · EV 76 mph · LA -0° · 72 ft Semyon Grebenyuk — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 111 ft Brad Behich — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +31° · 298 ft Masaaki Mitoma — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA -25° · 60 ft Phong Đức — single · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 208 ft Tanaboon Philawan — error · EV 60 mph · LA -5° · 57 ft Dudley Stewart — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft Hyun-soo Bae — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +6° · 87 ft
Aleksandrovsk Hawks — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
328' 440' 326' Wall 18' Mel Mondevillin — single · EV 82 mph · LA -11° · 78 ft Kevin Madrigal — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -17° · 61 ft Petr Kravchuk — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA -8° · 54 ft Fyodor Strelkov — single · EV 88 mph · LA +13° · 133 ft Aslan Safin — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +41° · 250 ft Pyotr Kasatkina — error · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 168 ft Valeriy Zotov — single · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Mel Mondevillin — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 239 ft Marat Vasiliev — double · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 208 ft Kevin Madrigal — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 73 ft Sergei Morozov — fielders_choice · EV 79 mph · LA -10° · 75 ft Petr Kravchuk — double_play · EV 67 mph · LA -14° · 64 ft Fyodor Strelkov — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA -16° · 72 ft Daniil Bykov — ground_out · EV 104 mph · LA +4° · 98 ft Xiaolong Cao — single · EV 85 mph · LA +19° · 178 ft Valeriy Zotov — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Petr Kravchuk — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA +7° · 58 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Maracay Auto Body
83% deserve-to-win  ·  5.4 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  +3.6 vs expected
contact: 6.1 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-1.1 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Brad Behich 92 / +31° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.79
Tsukasa Ishizu 76 / -14° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Masaaki Mitoma 76 / +2° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Taufik Syed 76 / +0° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.71
Hyon-min Sun 76 / +9° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.51
Aleksandrovsk Hawks
17% deserve-to-win  ·  2.5 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +0.5 vs expected
contact: 7.4 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-1.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mel Mondevillin 92 / +22° Oppo Out 1.0 → 0 -1.01
Marat Vasiliev 92 / +19° Oppo Double 1.0 → 2 +0.99
Pyotr Kasatkina 92 / +15° Center Reached on Error 0.9 → 0 -0.86
Valeriy Zotov 76 / -1° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.71
Mel Mondevillin 82 / -11° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
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