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Melbourne Baseball Club 11, Brisbane Thunder 7              2046-05-02 · #1452
at Siadi Grounds
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Brisbane                7      0    7    8    0
Melbourne              11      0   11   11    0

BRISBANE THUNDER
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Blundell    lf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Stratford   c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Ingles  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hsia        2b ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Bannatyne   3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Puhi        cf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Turner      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Gorry   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  c-Collins 2b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
  d-Rivera  ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1  0.000
  e-Bogut   c  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   1   0  0.333
Vukovic     j  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Robinson    j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Toumi       j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Totals                  29   7   8   3   0   0   6   4  11   1   1  0.276
  2B: Bogut (4), Vukovic (6), Hsia (4).
  CS: Vukovic (7).
  a-Struck out for Stratford in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Turner in the 6th.
  c-Entered at 2B in the 4th.
  d-Entered at SS in the 5th.
  e-Entered at C in the 7th.

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Balko       1b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Stott   pr ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.667
Baccus      cf ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Rios    cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Lopez       lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Brockie pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Frank       3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Reid    3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mabil       rf ......    1   0   1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Sainsbu pr ......    1   3   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Buchano ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Mulliga ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  h-Irvine  pr ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.500
  i-Bhardwa ph ......    2   1   1   0   1   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  j-Tolo    ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  k-Bogaert pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  l-Longley pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
King        j  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gurriel     j  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Talbot      j  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Totals                  33  11  11   5   2   0  11   5  15   0   0  0.333
  2B: Balko (6), Baccus (7), Gurriel (13), Talbot (6), Irvine (4).
  3B: Mabil (1), Bhardwaj (1).
  SB: Bogaerts (4).
  CS: Stott (4), Baccus (3), Irvine (1).
  GIDP: King (2).
  a-Ran for Balko in the 1st.
  b-Replaced Baccus at CF in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Lopez in the 8th.
  d-Replaced Frank at 3B in the 5th.
  e-Ran for Mabil in the 2nd.
  f-Walked for Talbot in the 2nd.
  g-Batted in the 3rd.
  h-Ran for Buchanon in the 3rd.
  i-Batted in the 3rd.
  j-Walked in the 4th.
  k-Ran for Tolo in the 4th.
  l-Ran for Mulligan in the 6th.

BRISBANE THUNDER PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Turner ..............    17   14  52%    4    2    2    2    7    0   68    -
Vukovic .............     8    5  19%    4    3    3    0    4    0   30  1-0
Cooper (L, 0-3) .....    14    8  30%    3    6    6    3    5    0   53  1-1

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Coronado ............    12   11  41%    1    0    0    1    7    0   44    -
Wilson ..............     8    5  19%    3    4    4    1    1    0   28  1-1
Campbell (W, 0-1) ...    11    9  33%    3    3    3    2    3    0   48  1-0
Blicavs .............     2    2   7%    1    0    0    0    1    0    6  1-0

  Batting order: Melbourne Baseball Club (home) batted first; Brisbane Thunder batted second.
  Seconds: BT o25 (7-11), MBC o25 (11-0).
  First pitch 6:00 PM VLAT. Weather: 89°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Heavy rain · Dry. seed 995036.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Cameron Baccus Ivan Stott (2B) 0–1
B 12 Ivan Stott Harry Sainsbury (3B) 0–2
B 16 Harry Sainsbury Hilton Talbot (2B) 0–3
B 17 Anant Bhardwaj Harry Sainsbury (2B) 0–4
B 17 Anant Bhardwaj Mustafa Longley (1B) 0–5
B 18 Pat King Anant Bhardwaj (3B) 0–6
B 23 Brad Irvine Yunieski Gurriel (3B) 0–7
B 23 Brad Irvine Iain Brockie (2B) 0–8
B 23 Brad Irvine Harry Sainsbury (1B) 0–9
B 25 Ivan Stott Brad Irvine (3B) 0–10
B 25 Ivan Stott Didi Bogaerts (2B) 0–11
T 9 Spencer Turner Chien-fu Hsia (3B) 1–11
T 11 Aaron Vukovic Mika Puhi (2B) 2–11
T 11 Mark Robinson Devon Blundell (3B) 3–11
T 13 Bruno Bogut Aaron Vukovic (3B) 4–11
T 18 Devon Blundell Nathan Collins (3B) 5–11
T 21 Chien-fu Hsia David Gorry (3B) 6–11
T 21 Bruno Bogut Mark Robinson (3B) 7–11
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Siadi Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 386' · CF 415' · RF 378' · 13' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Trolley Shed Round Bowl
Brisbane Thunder — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 5 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
386' 415' 378' Devon Blundell — fly_out · EV 64 mph · LA +26° · 130 ft Anis Toumi — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Chien-fu Hsia — double · EV 93 mph · LA +28° · 282 ft Mika Puhi — single · EV 75 mph · LA +18° · 132 ft Spencer Turner — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +6° · 79 ft Aaron Vukovic — double · EV 99 mph · LA +48° · 389 ft Mark Robinson — single · EV 78 mph · LA -18° · 74 ft Chien-fu Hsia — line_out · EV 60 mph · LA +21° · 95 ft Bruno Bogut — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +29° · 287 ft Hira Bannatyne — fielders_choice · EV 79 mph · LA -2° · 75 ft Devon Blundell — fly_out · EV 97 mph · LA +16° · 204 ft Nathan Collins — single · EV 70 mph · LA -16° · 66 ft Mark Robinson — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Anis Toumi — single · EV 89 mph · LA -10° · 84 ft Chien-fu Hsia — single · EV 52 mph · LA +0° · 49 ft Bruno Bogut — double · EV 87 mph · LA +20° · 198 ft
Melbourne Baseball Club — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 4 1B · 7 XBH · 0 HR
386' 415' 378' Mario Balko — double · EV 119 mph · LA +18° · 325 ft Cameron Baccus — double · EV 100 mph · LA +31° · 353 ft Garang Mabil — triple · EV 102 mph · LA +34° · 389 ft Hilton Talbot — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -0° · 82 ft Ivan Stott — single · EV 83 mph · LA +5° · 78 ft Harry Sainsbury — single · EV 88 mph · LA +26° · 243 ft Anant Bhardwaj — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 305 ft Pat King — double_play · EV 93 mph · LA -11° · 88 ft Hilton Talbot — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 225 ft Kyle Mulligan — single · EV 93 mph · LA +8° · 89 ft Brad Irvine — double · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 296 ft Anant Bhardwaj — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +36° · 341 ft Pat King — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA +2° · 94 ft Yunieski Gurriel — double · EV 95 mph · LA +25° · 282 ft Ivan Stott — single · EV 88 mph · LA -19° · 83 ft Rafael Rios — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +9° · 86 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brisbane Thunder
32% deserve-to-win  ·  4.7 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +2.3 vs expected
contact: 9.1 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+0.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Devon Blundell 97 / +16° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.32
Chien-fu Hsia 93 / +28° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Chien-fu Hsia 52 / +0° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.86
Nathan Collins 70 / -16° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.85
Bruno Bogut 92 / +29° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.79
Melbourne Baseball Club
68% deserve-to-win  ·  6.9 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +4.1 vs expected
contact: 15.1 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 20.0 (+4.9 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 3 CS (-1.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Anant Bhardwaj 100 / +25° Oppo Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.57
Brad Irvine 92 / +30° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Anant Bhardwaj 94 / +36° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Garang Mabil 102 / +34° Pull Triple 2.1 → 3 +0.90
Yunieski Gurriel 95 / +25° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.84
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