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BHP Wolves 44, Sydney Border Force 8                        2046-05-03 · #1474
at Gasset Ground
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                        1    R    H    E
Sydney                  8    8    6    0
Brisbane               44   44   30    0

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Pledger     ss ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Percival    lf ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.500
Crowe       cf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.250
Buffington  rf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Rowles      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Rukavytsya  2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Blundell    3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.000
Rowles      p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   1   0  0.333
  a-Nayler  c  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.333
Hunt        j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Pledger     j  ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  27   8   6   1   0   1   8   6  13   1   0  0.222
  2B: Nayler (2).
  HR: Pledger (3), off Baccus.
  HBP: Hunt (5), Buffington (4).
  GIDP: Pledger (1), Blundell (1).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

BHP WOLVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Maley       1b ......    5   8   6   2   0   3   8   1   0   1   0  1.200
Calhoun     lf ......    5   4   3   1   0   2   5   1   1   0   0  0.600
Blicavs     rf ......    6   4   3   0   0   2   5   0   1   0   0  0.500
Vukovic     ss ......    5   2   2   2   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.400
Henry       c  ......    4   5   3   1   0   1   4   1   1   0   0  0.750
Goodwin     3b ......    4   3   1   0   0   1   2   0   2   0   0  0.250
Wilkinson   cf ......    5   3   3   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.600
Marcus      2b ......    5   2   2   0   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.400
Baccus      p  ......    5   3   3   1   0   1   4   0   0   0   0  0.600
Neill       j  ......    4   4   2   0   1   1   4   1   0   0   0  0.500
Hassett     j  ......    3   6   2   0   0   2   4   1   0   0   0  0.667
Totals                  51  44  30   7   1  14  44   5   9   1   0  0.588
  2B: Maley 2 (21), Calhoun (23), Vukovic 2 (12), Henry (9), Baccus (2).
  3B: Neill (1).
  HR: Maley 3 (12), off Karačić, Bannatyne, Rukavytsya; Calhoun 2 (13), off Rowles, Wagner; Blicavs 2 (8), off Hassett, Bannatyne; Henry (10), off Hassett; Goodwin (3), off Rowles; Wilkinson (2), off Rukavytsya; Neill (6), off Lochhead; Baccus (2), off Aroha; Hassett 2 (9), off Aroha, Karačić.
  CS: Blicavs (2), Marcus (1).
  HBP: Goodwin (3), Hassett (3).


SYDNEY BORDER FORCE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Rowles ..............     6    3  11%    4    4    4    0    1    2   18    -
Aroha ...............     5    1   4%    4    6    4    0    1    2   11  1-1
Karačić (L, 0-2) ....    12    7  26%    3    7    5    2    1    2   36  1-1
Hassett .............     6    1   4%    4    6    3    0    1    2   24  1-1
Lochhead ............    13    8  30%    6    7    3    2    2    1   41  2-1
Bannatyne ...........     5    1   4%    3    6    4    1    0    2   20  1-1
Rukavytsya ..........     9    5  19%    5    6    4    0    2    2   27  1-1
Wagner ..............     2    1   4%    1    2    1    0    1    1    5  1-1

BHP WOLVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Baccus (W, 3-0) .....    31   25  93%    5    6    5    5   12    1  127    -
Davidson ............     4    2   7%    1    2    2    1    1    0   20  1-1

  Batting order: BHP Wolves (home) batted first; Sydney Border Force batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM VLAT. Weather: 73°F · Wind out · Clear · Light rain. seed 814808.
  Walk-Back runs: off Aroha 2, off Karačić 2, off Hassett 3, off Bannatyne 2, off Rukavytsya 2, off Wagner 1, off Baccus 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Fred Calhoun Damien Maley (2B) 0–1
B 0 Fred Calhoun Fred Calhoun (HR) 0–2
B 3 Aron Goodwin Cam Vukovic (2B) 0–3
B 3 Aron Goodwin Aron Goodwin (HR) 0–4
B 4 Dylan Marcus Aron Goodwin (3B) 0–5
B 4 Danny Neill Dylan Marcus (1B) 0–6
B 4 Pita Hassett Danny Neill (3B) 0–7
B 4 Pita Hassett Pita Hassett (HR) 0–8
B 4 Bailey Baccus Pita Hassett (3B) 0–9
B 4 Bailey Baccus Bailey Baccus (HR) 0–10
B 4 Joshua Blicavs Bailey Baccus (3B) 0–11
B 6 Lindsay Henry Damien Maley (2B) 0–12
B 6 Lindsay Henry Fred Calhoun (1B) 0–13
B 10 Pita Hassett Lindsay Henry (2B) 0–14
B 10 Pita Hassett Pita Hassett (HR) 0–15
B 11 Damien Maley Pita Hassett (3B) 0–16
B 11 Damien Maley Damien Maley (HR) 0–17
B 12 Joshua Blicavs Damien Maley (3B) 0–18
B 12 Joshua Blicavs Joshua Blicavs (HR) 0–19
B 12 Cam Vukovic Joshua Blicavs (3B) 0–20
B 12 Lindsay Henry Cam Vukovic (2B) 0–21
B 12 Lindsay Henry Lindsay Henry (HR) 0–22
B 12 Ivan Wilkinson Lindsay Henry (3B) 0–23
B 13 Dylan Marcus Aron Goodwin (3B) 0–24
B 15 Bailey Baccus Danny Neill (1B) 0–25
B 15 Damien Maley Bailey Baccus (2B) 0–26
B 20 Dylan Marcus Lindsay Henry (2B) 0–27
B 20 Danny Neill Ivan Wilkinson (2B) 0–28
B 20 Danny Neill Dylan Marcus (1B) 0–29
B 20 Danny Neill Danny Neill (HR) 0–30
B 21 Damien Maley Danny Neill (3B) 0–31
B 21 Damien Maley Pita Hassett (1B) 0–32
B 21 Damien Maley Damien Maley (HR) 0–33
B 21 Fred Calhoun Damien Maley (3B) 0–34
B 21 Joshua Blicavs Fred Calhoun (2B) 0–35
B 21 Joshua Blicavs Joshua Blicavs (HR) 0–36
B 21 Cam Vukovic Joshua Blicavs (3B) 0–37
B 23 Ivan Wilkinson Lindsay Henry (1B) 0–38
B 23 Ivan Wilkinson Ivan Wilkinson (HR) 0–39
B 25 Bailey Baccus Ivan Wilkinson (3B) 0–40
B 25 Damien Maley Pita Hassett (2B) 0–41
B 26 Damien Maley Damien Maley (HR) 0–42
B 26 Fred Calhoun Damien Maley (3B) 0–43
B 26 Fred Calhoun Fred Calhoun (HR) 0–44
T 3 Mika Pledger Doug Crowe (2B) 1–44
T 3 Mika Pledger Mitchell Pledger (1B) 2–44
T 3 Mika Pledger Mika Pledger (HR) 3–44
T 16 Aaron Rowles Mika Pledger (3B) 4–44
T 24 Jordan Blundell Hoani Percival (3B) 5–44
T 24 Jordan Blundell Richard Hunt (2B) 6–44
T 26 Cam Nayler Stefan Buffington (3B) 7–44
T 26 Cam Nayler Hoani Percival (1B) 8–44
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Gasset Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 338' · CF 393' · RF 333' · 10' wall). Balanced.
Flag Pole in Play
Sydney Border Force — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
338' 393' 333' Doug Crowe — single · EV 81 mph · LA +4° · 77 ft Mika Pledger — hr · EV 101 mph · LA +38° · 397 ft Jordan Blundell — line_out · EV 96 mph · LA +25° · 287 ft Mitchell Pledger — double_play · EV 79 mph · LA +10° · 82 ft Jordan Blundell — double_play · EV 63 mph · LA -14° · 59 ft Aaron Rowles — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 79 ft Hoani Percival — single · EV 82 mph · LA -18° · 78 ft Cam Nayler — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA -20° · 71 ft Richard Hunt — single · EV 81 mph · LA +22° · 183 ft Aaron Rowles — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +31° · 216 ft Rhyan Rowles — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +17° · 147 ft Jordan Blundell — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Aaron Rowles — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 113 ft Cam Nayler — double · EV 93 mph · LA +39° · 337 ft
BHP Wolves — Batted Balls
39 BIP· 8 1B · 8 XBH · 14 HR
338' 393' 333' Damien Maley — double · EV 114 mph · LA +24° · 391 ft Fred Calhoun — hr · EV 103 mph · LA +30° · 363 ft Joshua Blicavs — fly_out · EV 114 mph · LA +19° · 323 ft Cam Vukovic — double · EV 98 mph · LA +18° · 223 ft Aron Goodwin — hr · EV 106 mph · LA +30° · 388 ft Dylan Marcus — single · EV 102 mph · LA +8° · 117 ft Danny Neill — triple · EV 119 mph · LA +18° · 330 ft Pita Hassett — hr · EV 114 mph · LA +29° · 434 ft Bailey Baccus — hr · EV 102 mph · LA +37° · 398 ft Joshua Blicavs — fly_out · EV 115 mph · LA +53° · 480 ft Lindsay Henry — double · EV 100 mph · LA +31° · 352 ft Aron Goodwin — line_out · EV 110 mph · LA +19° · 296 ft Ivan Wilkinson — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +40° · 302 ft Dylan Marcus — fly_out · EV 102 mph · LA +27° · 331 ft Pita Hassett — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +38° · 480 ft Damien Maley — hr · EV 117 mph · LA +37° · 480 ft Joshua Blicavs — hr · EV 108 mph · LA +32° · 420 ft Cam Vukovic — double · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 279 ft Lindsay Henry — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +39° · 480 ft Ivan Wilkinson — single · EV 106 mph · LA +9° · 139 ft Dylan Marcus — single · EV 91 mph · LA -5° · 87 ft Bailey Baccus — double · EV 93 mph · LA +36° · 330 ft Damien Maley — double · EV 114 mph · LA +24° · 385 ft Fred Calhoun — ground_out · EV 111 mph · LA +3° · 105 ft Danny Neill — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +44° · 480 ft Joshua Blicavs — single · EV 109 mph · LA +4° · 104 ft Ivan Wilkinson — single · EV 103 mph · LA +25° · 324 ft Dylan Marcus — error · EV 73 mph · LA +2° · 69 ft Damien Maley — hr · EV 113 mph · LA +40° · 480 ft Fred Calhoun — double · EV 109 mph · LA +23° · 341 ft Lindsay Henry — single · EV 98 mph · LA +1° · 93 ft Danny Neill — line_out · EV 108 mph · LA +20° · 301 ft Joshua Blicavs — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +37° · 386 ft Cam Vukovic — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 275 ft Ivan Wilkinson — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +43° · 480 ft Bailey Baccus — single · EV 110 mph · LA +8° · 105 ft Damien Maley — single · EV 99 mph · LA +12° · 159 ft Fred Calhoun — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +39° · 480 ft Damien Maley — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +30° · 345 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Sydney Border Force
5% deserve-to-win  ·  7.1 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +0.9 vs expected
contact: 8.9 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+1.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mika Pledger 101 / +38° Pull Home Run 2.1 → 4 +1.90
Jordan Blundell 96 / +25° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Cam Nayler 93 / +39° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Rhyan Rowles 82 / +17° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.71
Hoani Percival 82 / -18° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
BHP Wolves
95% deserve-to-win  ·  32.3 expected runs
actual 44 runs  ·  +11.7 vs expected
contact: 73.4 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 81.0 (+7.6 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Fred Calhoun 103 / +30° Pull Home Run 1.4 → 4 +2.57
Damien Maley 100 / +30° Pull Home Run 1.4 → 4 +2.57
Aron Goodwin 106 / +30° Oppo Home Run 2.0 → 4 +1.95
Bailey Baccus 102 / +37° Oppo Home Run 2.1 → 4 +1.90
Joshua Blicavs 100 / +37° Center Home Run 2.1 → 4 +1.90
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