Spray ChartsHybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Brown-Murray Yards's actual outfield dimensions
(LF 338' · CF 419' · RF 349' · 12' wall).
Balanced.
Entebbe BC — Batted Balls
1 BIP· 0 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
Pinar del Río Ospreys — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 1 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
Luck LedgerDeserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Entebbe BC
12%deserve-to-win · 0.5 expected runs
actual 1 run
· +0.5 vs expected
contact: 0.3 est bases + 1 walk/HBP
· actual batted 0.0 (-0.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)