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Panevėžys Bottling Co. 24, Berlin Baseball Klub 2            2046-04-18 · #804
at Sarraf Park
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Berlin                  2      0    2    4    0
Panevėžys              24      0   24   26    1

BERLIN BASEBALL KLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Sosa        ss ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
Lyle        c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Tatís       rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Altuve      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Matos       lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.000
Wiesner     1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Granville   cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Encarnación p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Kallis  c  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Besler      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Javed       j  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   2   4   1   0   0   2   3  18   0   0  0.143
  2B: Kallis (1).
  GIDP: Wiesner (4), Encarnación (1).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO.
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Shafie      ss ......    5   3   2   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.400
Turnbow     c  ......    5   1   3   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.600
Cunha       lf ......    4   6   4   2   0   1   5   1   0   0   0  1.000
Mejía       1b ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Lehnhoff    3b ......    4   3   2   1   0   1   4   1   2   0   0  0.500
Breit       cf ......    4   2   3   1   0   0   3   1   1   0   0  0.750
Féliz       2b ......    5   3   3   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.600
Mangin      rf ......    5   0   3   0   1   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.600
Bastardo    p  ......    4   3   3   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   1  0.750
Saul        j  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
Faga        j  ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
Totals                  46  24  26   7   1   3  24   3  10   0   1  0.565
  2B: Shafie (11), Turnbow (7), Cunha 2 (7), Lehnhoff (8), Breit (2), Saul (5).
  3B: Mangin (1).
  HR: Cunha (8), off Kossmann; Lehnhoff (3), off Sojo; Bastardo (1), off Kossmann.
  E: Féliz (2).
  HBP: Shafie (2), Faga (1).


BERLIN BASEBALL KLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Encarnación .........     7    2   7%    4    2    2    0    1    0   18    -
Sojo ................     6    2   7%    4    4    3    0    1    1   20  1-1
Acuña ...............     9    5  19%    5    4    4    1    1    0   31  1-1
Barksdale ...........     8    6  22%    5    2    2    1    1    0   27  1-0
Montero (L, 0-1) ....    12    5  19%    5    7    7    1    3    0   45  1-1
Kossmann ............    10    7  26%    3    5    3    0    4    2   38  1-1

PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO. PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bastardo (W, 4-0) ...    31   27 100%    4    2    2    3   18    0  114    -

  Batting order: Panevėžys Bottling Co. (home) batted first; Berlin Baseball Klub batted second.
  Seconds: BB1 o26 (2-24), PBC o26 (24-0).
  First pitch 2:00 PM. Weather: 81°F · Wind cross · Clear · Light rain · Dry. seed 28591.
  Walk-Back runs: off Sojo 1, off Kossmann 2.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Diego Turnbow Harris Shafie (1B) 0–1
B 0 Nicholas Cunha Diego Turnbow (2B) 0–2
B 1 Armondo Lehnhoff Nicholas Cunha (2B) 0–3
B 1 Armondo Lehnhoff Armondo Lehnhoff (HR) 0–4
B 2 Ronald Féliz Armondo Lehnhoff (3B) 0–5
B 3 Harris Shafie Ronald Féliz (2B) 0–6
B 6 Malik Breit Harris Shafie (3B) 0–7
B 6 Malik Breit Nicholas Cunha (1B) 0–8
B 6 Ronald Féliz Malik Breit (2B) 0–9
B 6 Diego Mangin Ronald Féliz (1B) 0–10
B 10 Nicholas Cunha Renato Bastardo (2B) 0–11
B 12 Malik Breit Nicholas Cunha (2B) 0–12
B 16 Harris Shafie Ronald Féliz (3B) 0–13
B 16 Harris Shafie Mackenzie Faga (2B) 0–14
B 17 Nicholas Cunha Harris Shafie (2B) 0–15
B 17 Armondo Lehnhoff Nicholas Cunha (2B) 0–16
B 17 Armondo Lehnhoff Sadiel Mejía (1B) 0–17
B 19 Tavierre Saul Armondo Lehnhoff (3B) 0–18
B 19 Tavierre Saul Malik Breit (1B) 0–19
B 20 Renato Bastardo Tavierre Saul (2B) 0–20
B 20 Renato Bastardo Renato Bastardo (HR) 0–21
B 22 Nicholas Cunha Renato Bastardo (3B) 0–22
B 22 Nicholas Cunha Nicholas Cunha (HR) 0–23
B 22 Sadiel Mejía Nicholas Cunha (3B) 0–24
T 4 Roan Matos Lenoir Lyle (3B) 1–24
T 4 Roan Matos Usman Javed (2B) 2–24
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Sarraf Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 335' · CF 430' · RF 314' · 41' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill Knothole Gates
Berlin Baseball Klub — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
335' 430' 314' Wall 41' Lenoir Lyle — single · EV 76 mph · LA -16° · 72 ft Ronny Sosa — single · EV 77 mph · LA +10° · 85 ft Roan Matos — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -3° · 64 ft Lenoir Wiesner — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -13° · 72 ft Connor Kallis — double · EV 93 mph · LA +29° · 294 ft Geraldo Encarnación — double_play · EV 69 mph · LA +1° · 66 ft Ronny Sosa — single · EV 83 mph · LA +1° · 78 ft Yordan Altuve — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -12° · 78 ft Roan Matos — error · EV 62 mph · LA -15° · 59 ft Lenoir Wiesner — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA +2° · 69 ft
Panevėžys Bottling Co. — Batted Balls
31 BIP· 15 1B · 8 XBH · 3 HR
335' 430' 314' Wall 41' Diego Turnbow — double · EV 119 mph · LA +12° · 236 ft Nicholas Cunha — double · EV 99 mph · LA +21° · 261 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +31° · 471 ft Ronald Féliz — single · EV 86 mph · LA +18° · 176 ft Diego Mangin — infield_single · EV 88 mph · LA +7° · 84 ft Harris Shafie — single · EV 118 mph · LA +9° · 164 ft Tavierre Saul — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA -16° · 94 ft Mackenzie Faga — single · EV 119 mph · LA +6° · 113 ft Diego Turnbow — single · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 182 ft Sadiel Mejía — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA -4° · 83 ft Malik Breit — double · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 163 ft Ronald Féliz — single · EV 83 mph · LA +10° · 95 ft Diego Mangin — triple · EV 108 mph · LA +17° · 261 ft Renato Bastardo — single · EV 100 mph · LA -5° · 95 ft Harris Shafie — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +27° · 242 ft Nicholas Cunha — single · EV 100 mph · LA +3° · 95 ft Tavierre Saul — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +53° · 385 ft Diego Turnbow — single · EV 119 mph · LA +18° · 338 ft Malik Breit — single · EV 97 mph · LA -7° · 93 ft Ronald Féliz — single · EV 88 mph · LA +5° · 84 ft Diego Mangin — infield_single · EV 88 mph · LA -13° · 84 ft Harris Shafie — double · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 290 ft Nicholas Cunha — double · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 272 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — double · EV 119 mph · LA +18° · 333 ft Tavierre Saul — double · EV 110 mph · LA +18° · 283 ft Renato Bastardo — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +38° · 480 ft Mackenzie Faga — single · EV 95 mph · LA +13° · 153 ft Nicholas Cunha — hr · EV 118 mph · LA +29° · 467 ft Sadiel Mejía — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 332 ft Malik Breit — single · EV 83 mph · LA -3° · 78 ft Renato Bastardo — single · EV 89 mph · LA +12° · 130 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Berlin Baseball Klub
0% deserve-to-win  ·  1.3 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  +0.7 vs expected
contact: 3.2 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (+1.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Connor Kallis 93 / +29° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Lenoir Lyle 76 / -16° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.75
Ronny Sosa 83 / +1° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Ronny Sosa 77 / +10° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
Yordan Altuve 83 / -12° Center Out 0.3 → 0 -0.34
Panevėžys Bottling Co.
100% deserve-to-win  ·  20.6 expected runs
actual 24 runs  ·  +3.4 vs expected
contact: 37.3 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 44.0 (+6.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Sadiel Mejía 100 / +28° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.44
Diego Mangin 108 / +17° Oppo Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.31
Armondo Lehnhoff 116 / +31° Oppo Home Run 3.0 → 4 +0.96
Nicholas Cunha 118 / +29° Center Home Run 3.0 → 4 +0.96
Tavierre Saul 100 / +53° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
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