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Adelaide Baseball Club 14, Brisbane Thunder 10               2046-04-19 · #865
at Billa Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
Adelaide               14   14   13    1
Brisbane               10   10    7    0

ADELAIDE BASEBALL CLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Herbert     1b ......    2   3   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.500
Blanchard   c  ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Postecoglou rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Cox         ss ......    4   2   3   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.750
Rangi       cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   1   0   0  0.000
Cummins     p  ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   2   1   1   1   0  0.667
Ili         lf ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Olla        2b ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   1  0.333
Enyeama     3b ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.250
Patel       j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Hrustic     j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  30  14  13   4   0   0  13   9   9   1   1  0.433
  2B: Herbert (8), Cox (6), Ili (7), Enyeama (10).
  E: Cummins (1).
  HBP: Blanchard (1).
  GIDP: Postecoglou (1), Cummins (1).


BRISBANE THUNDER
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Hsia        lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Gauci       1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
Ingles      cf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
Wagner      rf ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Brondel pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Henry       ss ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Gorry       2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Gustavsson  3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Bowen       p  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  b-Morgan  c  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Vukovic     j  ......    1   2   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  1.000
Toumi       j  ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   3   0   0   0   1  0.667
Robinson    j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Totals                  28  10   7   2   0   0   8   5  11   0   3  0.250
  2B: Vukovic (5), Bowen (1).
  HBP: Morgan (2).
  a-Ran for Wagner in the 7th.
  b-Entered at C in the 7th.

ADELAIDE BASEBALL CLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Cummins (W, 2-0) ....    23   16  59%    4    7    4    4    8    0   89    -
Roestbakken (F, 11) .    11   11  41%    3    3    3    1    3    0   37  1-1

BRISBANE THUNDER PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bowen ...............     6    2   7%    3    2    2    1    0    0   15    -
Delany ..............     9    6  22%    2    3    3    3    2    0   37  2-1
Chidiac (L, 0-3) ....    17   13  48%    4    5    5    3    7    0   69  3-2
Turner ..............     9    6  22%    4    4    4    2    1    0   28  2-1

  Batting order: Brisbane Thunder (home) batted second; Adelaide Baseball Club batted first.
  First pitch 8:10 PM VLAT. Weather: 67°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 282862.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 2 Simon Cox Paul Herbert (2B) 1–0
T 2 Brad Hrustic Simon Cox (2B) 2–0
T 5 Flynn Olla Dave Patel (3B) 3–0
T 8 Simon Cox Rachin Ili (3B) 4–0
T 8 Glen Rangi Paul Herbert (3B) 5–0
T 9 Harry Cummins Erick Blanchard (3B) 6–0
T 9 Rachin Ili Simon Cox (3B) 7–0
T 9 Rachin Ili Harry Cummins (1B) 8–0
T 11 Rachin Ili Flynn Olla (3B) 9–0
T 21 Harry Cummins Luis Enyeama (3B) 10–0
T 23 Simon Cox Flynn Olla (3B) 11–0
T 25 Erick Blanchard Glen Rangi (3B) 12–0
T 26 Paul Herbert Erick Blanchard (1B) 13–0
T 26 Luis Enyeama Paul Herbert (3B) 14–0
B 2 Andrew Henry Glenn Morgan (3B) 14–1
B 2 Anis Toumi Aaron Vukovic (3B) 14–2
B 2 Anis Toumi Casey Wagner (2B) 14–3
B 2 Mark Robinson Andrew Henry (2B) 14–4
B 7 Andrej Ingles Mark Robinson (3B) 14–5
B 7 Aaron Vukovic Andrej Ingles (1B) 14–6
B 16 Marino Bowen Casey Wagner (2B) 14–7
B 16 Aaron Vukovic Marino Bowen (3B) 14–8
B 17 Chien-fu Hsia Aaron Vukovic (2B) 14–9
B 18 Anis Toumi Chien-fu Hsia (2B) 14–10
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Billa Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 387' · CF 416' · RF 367' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Members' Pavilion
Adelaide Baseball Club — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 9 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
387' 416' 367' Miloš Postecoglou — double_play · EV 72 mph · LA +22° · 146 ft Simon Cox — single · EV 98 mph · LA +25° · 292 ft Dave Patel — single · EV 85 mph · LA +17° · 163 ft Brad Hrustic — single · EV 109 mph · LA -4° · 104 ft Harry Cummins — double_play · EV 64 mph · LA +5° · 61 ft Rachin Ili — single · EV 84 mph · LA +26° · 220 ft Flynn Olla — single · EV 90 mph · LA +10° · 115 ft Paul Herbert — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +41° · 315 ft Simon Cox — single · EV 64 mph · LA +16° · 88 ft Harry Cummins — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 118 ft Rachin Ili — double · EV 96 mph · LA +19° · 230 ft Luis Enyeama — line_out · EV 96 mph · LA +11° · 136 ft Erick Blanchard — single · EV 89 mph · LA +9° · 94 ft Paul Herbert — double · EV 109 mph · LA +23° · 341 ft Rachin Ili — fly_out · EV 72 mph · LA +28° · 168 ft Luis Enyeama — line_out · EV 89 mph · LA +18° · 184 ft Flynn Olla — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Harry Cummins — single · EV 89 mph · LA +26° · 251 ft Simon Cox — double · EV 101 mph · LA +27° · 334 ft Miloš Postecoglou — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 144 ft Luis Enyeama — double · EV 88 mph · LA +12° · 129 ft
Brisbane Thunder — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 5 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
387' 416' 367' Anis Toumi — single · EV 83 mph · LA +24° · 203 ft Mark Robinson — single · EV 86 mph · LA +18° · 178 ft Marino Bowen — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -7° · 78 ft Aaron Vukovic — double · EV 107 mph · LA +16° · 242 ft Glenn Morgan — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA +32° · 308 ft Andrew Henry — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +10° · 124 ft Casey Wagner — single · EV 79 mph · LA +10° · 85 ft Andrej Ingles — error · EV 90 mph · LA +7° · 86 ft Chien-fu Hsia — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA -3° · 89 ft Anis Toumi — ground_out · EV 111 mph · LA +8° · 142 ft Marino Bowen — double · EV 93 mph · LA +20° · 222 ft Luc Gauci — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -7° · 79 ft Chien-fu Hsia — single · EV 96 mph · LA -4° · 91 ft Anis Toumi — single · EV 102 mph · LA +13° · 186 ft Mark Robinson — fly_out · EV 102 mph · LA +30° · 360 ft David Gorry — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +20° · 196 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Adelaide Baseball Club
71% deserve-to-win  ·  14.5 expected runs
actual 14 runs  ·  -0.5 vs expected
contact: 17.0 est bases + 10 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 17.0
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Paul Herbert 89 / +41° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Luis Enyeama 96 / +11° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Luis Enyeama 88 / +12° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Luis Enyeama 89 / +18° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.01
Rachin Ili 96 / +19° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.68
Brisbane Thunder
29% deserve-to-win  ·  9.4 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  +0.6 vs expected
contact: 13.4 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-4.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mark Robinson 102 / +30° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.44
Anis Toumi 111 / +8° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.40
Andrew Henry 98 / +10° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Marino Bowen 93 / +20° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.99
Glenn Morgan 93 / +32° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.79
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