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Lima BC 10, Montréal Cannery SARL 7                          2046-04-19 · #868
at Silver Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Lima                   10   10    9    0
Montréal                7    7    6    1

LIMA BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Wilson      1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Howell      cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Kuki    pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pekhart     rf ......    3   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Docherty    3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Bachan  pr ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Docherty    ss ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   1   0  0.500
Toone       c  ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Taylor      lf ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.000
Sancho      p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   1  0.500
  c-Jack    ph ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Weber       j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Totals                  29  10   9   1   0   0   9   5   5   1   1  0.310
  2B: Toone (2).
  HBP: Pekhart (2), Weber (3), Bachan (1), Docherty (1).
  GIDP: Kuki (2).
  a-Ran for Howell in the 1st.
  b-Ran for Docherty in the 1st.
  c-Batted in the 1st.

MONTRÉAL CANNERY SARL
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Homans      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Larkin  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Henderson   p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  b-Caldwel 2b ......    3   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   2   0   0  0.333
  c-Whiteho ss ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
  d-Rice    lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Davies  ss ......    1   2   1   0   0   1   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Beraldo lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Flores  c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  h-O'Reill ph ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
  i-Blanton ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  j-Rees    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  k-Green   ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  l-Furness pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Ynoa        j  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Hranáč      j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Toney       j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Totals                  27   7   6   3   0   2   7   5  11   0   0  0.222
  2B: Ynoa (11), O'Reilly (6), Green (2).
  HR: Caldwell (3), off Musil; Davies (1), off Sancho.
  CS: Toney (2).
  E: Homans (3).
  HBP: Homans (2).
  GIDP: Homans (2), Toney (5).
  a-Ran for Homans in the 7th.
  b-Entered at 2B in the 3rd.
  c-Entered at SS in the 3rd.
  d-Entered at LF in the 4th.
  e-Entered at SS in the 4th.
  f-Entered at LF in the 4th.
  g-Entered at C in the 7th.
  h-Batted in the 2nd.
  i-Grounded out for Flores in the 7th.
  j-Grounded out for Hranáč in the 8th.
  k-Doubled for Davies in the 9th.
  l-Ran for Green in the 9th.

LIMA BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Sancho ..............    15   11  41%    2    4    4    4    5    1   60    -
Oxlade-Chamb (W, 2-0)     15   14  52%    3    1    1    1    5    0   58  1-0
Musil ...............     3    2   7%    1    2    2    0    1    1   13  1-0

MONTRÉAL CANNERY SARL PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Henderson ...........    15    9  33%    4    2    2    2    1    0   61    -
Kelly ...............     5    2   7%    2    4    4    2    0    0   21  3-2
Johnstone ...........    15   14  52%    3    3    3    1    4    0   58  2-2
James (L, 0-1) ......     3    2   7%    0    1    1    0    0    0    9  1-1

  Batting order: Montréal Cannery SARL (home) batted second; Lima BC batted first.
  First pitch 6:40 PM. Weather: 85°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 708305.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 5 Callum Toone Masaaki Kuki (3B) 1–0
T 9 Florian Weber Peter Taylor (3B) 2–0
T 9 Gavin Jack Štěpán Pekhart (3B) 3–0
T 9 Graham Docherty Daren Bachan (3B) 4–0
T 10 Peter Taylor Gavin Jack (3B) 5–0
T 10 Roy Sancho Callum Toone (2B) 6–0
T 13 Masaaki Kuki Graham Docherty (3B) 7–0
T 13 Štěpán Pekhart Peter Taylor (3B) 8–0
T 18 Roy Sancho Štěpán Pekhart (3B) 9–0
T 25 Callum Toone Florian Weber (2B) 10–0
B 2 Callum Toney Tiernan Whitehouse (3B) 10–1
B 4 Donal O'Reilly Dewi Davies (2B) 10–2
B 11 Dewi Davies Tiernan Whitehouse (1B) 10–3
B 11 Dewi Davies Dewi Davies (HR) 10–4
B 25 Trent Green Domingo Ynoa (2B) 10–5
B 25 Eoin Caldwell Conal Furness (2B) 10–6
B 25 Eoin Caldwell Eoin Caldwell (HR) 10–7
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Silver Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 353' · CF 398' · RF 353' · 11' wall). Balanced.
Lima BC — Batted Balls
25 BIP· 8 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
353' 398' 353' Brian Wilson — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 133 ft Štěpán Pekhart — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 315 ft Rory Docherty — error · EV 53 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Florian Weber — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +48° · 230 ft Gavin Jack — single · EV 84 mph · LA +14° · 131 ft Callum Toone — double · EV 92 mph · LA +38° · 329 ft Peter Taylor — error · EV 78 mph · LA +7° · 74 ft Roy Sancho — infield_single · EV 58 mph · LA +23° · 97 ft Masaaki Kuki — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -11° · 50 ft Daren Bachan — single · EV 96 mph · LA +15° · 186 ft Gavin Jack — error · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 219 ft Graham Docherty — single · EV 87 mph · LA +12° · 122 ft Callum Toone — single · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 113 ft Roy Sancho — ground_out · EV 56 mph · LA -1° · 53 ft Brian Wilson — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Florian Weber — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +44° · 231 ft Masaaki Kuki — error · EV 76 mph · LA -18° · 72 ft Štěpán Pekhart — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -7° · 72 ft Daren Bachan — single · EV 78 mph · LA +11° · 94 ft Peter Taylor — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +35° · 218 ft Callum Toone — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +29° · 198 ft Brian Wilson — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 313 ft Štěpán Pekhart — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -0° · 49 ft Florian Weber — single · EV 82 mph · LA +11° · 97 ft Callum Toone — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft
Montréal Cannery SARL — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 1 1B · 3 XBH · 2 HR
353' 398' 353' Callum Toney — fielders_choice · EV 65 mph · LA -3° · 61 ft Donal O'Reilly — double · EV 103 mph · LA +20° · 267 ft Emile Homans — double_play · EV 86 mph · LA -13° · 82 ft Dewi Davies — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +36° · 379 ft Domingo Ynoa — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +27° · 220 ft Wesley Blanton — line_out · EV 72 mph · LA +18° · 120 ft Dai Rees — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA -9° · 60 ft Trent Green — double · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 248 ft George Rice — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA -4° · 70 ft Callum Toney — single · EV 93 mph · LA +5° · 88 ft Domingo Ynoa — double · EV 109 mph · LA +24° · 350 ft Callum Toney — double_play · EV 80 mph · LA +8° · 72 ft Eoin Caldwell — hr · EV 106 mph · LA +40° · 442 ft Alisson Beraldo — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 206 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Lima BC
65% deserve-to-win  ·  10.7 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  -0.7 vs expected
contact: 12.4 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (-2.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Štěpán Pekhart 92 / +34° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Brian Wilson 92 / +34° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Gavin Jack 92 / +20° Pull Reached on Error 1.0 → 0 -1.00
Callum Toone 92 / +38° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Roy Sancho 58 / +23° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
Montréal Cannery SARL
35% deserve-to-win  ·  7.9 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  -0.9 vs expected
contact: 13.3 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (+1.7 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Dewi Davies 100 / +36° Pull Home Run 1.6 → 4 +2.44
Alisson Beraldo 92 / +19° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.00
Eoin Caldwell 106 / +40° Center Home Run 3.0 → 4 +0.97
Callum Toney 80 / +8° Oppo Double Play 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Wesley Blanton 72 / +18° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.60
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