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Montréal Cannery SARL 22, Lima BC 16                         2046-04-20 · #880
at Silver Yards
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Lima                   13      3   16   14    1
Montréal               20      2   22   19    0

LIMA BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Wilson      1b ......    3   4   2   0   0   1   1   1   0   0   0  0.667
Howell      cf ......    4   1   1   0   0   1   3   0   2   0   0  0.250
Balbirnie   2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Krmenčí ph ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.500
Toone       c  ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Taylor      lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
  b-Footman pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
May         p  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Flanaga ph ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Černý   c  ......    2   4   2   0   0   2   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Jones   c  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
  f-Kuki    cf ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  g-Dochert ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Weber       j  ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Holloway    j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  36  16  14   4   0   5  15   4  11   0   0  0.389
  2B: Weber (11), Kuki (5), Toone (3), Krmenčík (6).
  HR: Flanagan (2), off Zendejas; Černý 2 (2), off Zendejas, Allaf; Wilson (1), off Zendejas; Howell (1), off Allaf.
  SB: Kuki (4).
  CS: Kuki (1).
  E: Flanagan (2).
  GIDP: Holloway (2).
  a-Batted for Balbirnie in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Taylor in the 7th.
  c-Batted for Kuki in the 6th.
  d-Entered at C in the 7th.
  e-Entered at C in the 8th.
  f-Entered at CF in the 8th.
  g-Batted for Černý in the 6th.

MONTRÉAL CANNERY SARL
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Krejčí      cf ......    1   0   1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-O'Reill pr ......    2   4   2   1   0   1   3   1   0   0   0  1.000
Koubek      3b ......    3   4   3   2   1   0   3   1   0   0   0  1.000
McLaughlin  ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Edwards     lf ......    4   5   4   3   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Homans      1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Bowen       c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  b-Flores  c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Zendejas    p  ......    3   3   1   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   1  0.333
  c-Rice    ph ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Green   ph ......    3   3   2   1   0   1   5   0   0   0   0  0.667
  e-Whiteho rf ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Ynoa        j  ......    4   0   3   3   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.750
Hranáč      j  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Toney       j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Totals                  42  22  19  11   2   4  22   4  12   0   1  0.452
  2B: O'Reilly (7), Koubek 2 (5), Ynoa 3 (14), Green (3), Edwards 3 (8), Whitehouse (3).
  3B: Krejčí (1), Koubek (1).
  HR: O'Reilly (1), off Kelly; Green (1), off May; Edwards (2), off Hamzová; Zendejas (1), off Yuzuki.
  SB: Koubek 2 (3).
  a-Ran for Krejčí in the 1st.
  b-Replaced Bowen at C in the 7th.
  c-Batted in the 1st.
  d-Batted in the 2nd.
  e-Replaced Hranáč at RF in the 9th.

LIMA BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
May (L, 2-2) ........    11    5  19%    6    6    6    1    2    1   51    -
Hamzová .............     4    3  11%    1    2    1    0    2    1   13  1-1
MacRae ..............     6    2   7%    4    4    3    0    0    0   19  1-1
Yuzuki ..............    11    8  30%    3    4    3    2    4    1   40  1-0
Kelly ...............     8    5  19%    3    4    2    1    2    1   36  1-1
Kuki ................     6    4  15%    2    2    1    0    2    0   21  1-1

MONTRÉAL CANNERY SARL PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Zendejas ............    19   10  37%    6   10    7    3    6    3   85    -
Allaf ...............    13    9  33%    6    6    5    0    2    2   47  1-0
McCullum (W, 1-2) ...     8    8  30%    2    0    0    1    3    0   26  1-0

  Batting order: Montréal Cannery SARL (home) batted first; Lima BC batted second.
  Seconds: LB o25 (13-20), MCS o25 (20-0).
  First pitch 6:30 PM. Weather: 69°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Light rain · Humid. seed 138170.
  Walk-Back runs: off Hamzová 1, off MacRae 1, off Yuzuki 1, off Kuki 1, off Zendejas 2, off Allaf 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Aleš Koubek Donal O'Reilly (3B) 0–1
B 3 Trent Green Aleš Koubek (3B) 0–2
B 3 Trent Green Aleš Hranáč (1B) 0–3
B 3 Trent Green Trent Green (HR) 0–4
B 3 Stuart Edwards Trent Green (3B) 0–5
B 3 Stuart Edwards Stuart Edwards (HR) 0–6
B 6 Donal O'Reilly Stuart Edwards (3B) 0–7
B 6 Aleš Koubek Donal O'Reilly (2B) 0–8
B 8 Callum Toney Aleš Koubek (3B) 0–9
B 8 Domingo Ynoa Callum Toney (1B) 0–10
B 13 Joel Zendejas Stuart Edwards (3B) 0–11
B 13 Joel Zendejas Joel Zendejas (HR) 0–12
B 16 Trent Green Joel Zendejas (3B) 0–13
B 16 Trent Green Aleš Koubek (1B) 0–14
B 16 Stuart Edwards Trent Green (2B) 0–15
B 17 Domingo Ynoa Stuart Edwards (2B) 0–16
B 21 Donal O'Reilly Joel Zendejas (1B) 0–17
B 21 Donal O'Reilly Donal O'Reilly (HR) 0–18
B 21 Aleš Koubek Donal O'Reilly (3B) 0–19
B 24 Domingo Ynoa Aleš Koubek (3B) 0–20
T 0 Brian Wilson Brian Wilson (HR) 1–20
T 3 Ctibor Černý Brian Wilson (3B) 2–20
T 3 Ctibor Černý Ctibor Černý (HR) 3–20
T 5 Masaaki Kuki Ctibor Černý (3B) 4–20
T 7 Waltclaire Howell Masaaki Kuki (3B) 5–20
T 8 Florian Weber Xavier May (3B) 6–20
T 8 Florian Weber Brian Wilson (2B) 7–20
T 10 Ctibor Černý Ctibor Černý (HR) 8–20
T 10 Ondřej Krmenčík Ctibor Černý (3B) 9–20
T 11 Masaaki Kuki Steeven Jones (2B) 10–20
T 15 Waltclaire Howell Brian Wilson (1B) 11–20
T 15 Waltclaire Howell Waltclaire Howell (HR) 12–20
T 17 Ondřej Krmenčík Graham Docherty (1B) 13–20
seconds_first 1 Erik Flores Tiernan Whitehouse (3B) 13–21
seconds_first 1 Joel Zendejas Stuart Edwards (3B) 13–22
seconds_second 1 Robert Flanagan Ondřej Krmenčík (1B) 14–22
seconds_second 1 Robert Flanagan Robert Flanagan (HR) 15–22
seconds_second 1 Callum Toone Robert Flanagan (3B) 16–22
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Silver Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 353' · CF 398' · RF 353' · 11' wall). Balanced.
Lima BC — Batted Balls
22 BIP· 5 1B · 4 XBH · 5 HR
353' 398' 353' Brian Wilson — hr · EV 108 mph · LA +41° · 459 ft Ctibor Černý — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +35° · 374 ft Masaaki Kuki — double · EV 87 mph · LA +37° · 291 ft Callum Toone — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA +17° · 194 ft Ondřej Krmenčík — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA +3° · 88 ft Graham Docherty — fielders_choice · EV 90 mph · LA +9° · 104 ft Robert Flanagan — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +14° · 162 ft Waltclaire Howell — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 192 ft Florian Weber — double · EV 105 mph · LA +12° · 176 ft Manus Holloway — double_play · EV 90 mph · LA -6° · 86 ft Ctibor Černý — hr · EV 114 mph · LA +43° · 480 ft Steeven Jones — single · EV 94 mph · LA +18° · 207 ft Masaaki Kuki — single · EV 96 mph · LA +18° · 214 ft Brian Wilson — single · EV 90 mph · LA -8° · 85 ft Ondřej Krmenčík — double · EV 108 mph · LA +23° · 336 ft Robert Flanagan — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +44° · 480 ft Waltclaire Howell — hr · EV 109 mph · LA +32° · 427 ft Steeven Jones — fly_out · EV 90 mph · LA +14° · 157 ft Peter Taylor — single · EV 88 mph · LA +3° · 83 ft Florian Weber — single · EV 100 mph · LA +33° · 367 ft Brian Wilson — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -2° · 77 ft Callum Toone — double · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 244 ft
Montréal Cannery SARL — Batted Balls
25 BIP· 2 1B · 13 XBH · 4 HR
353' 398' 353' Josef Krejčí — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 311 ft Aleš Koubek — double · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 216 ft Trent Green — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +46° · 400 ft Stuart Edwards — hr · EV 112 mph · LA +36° · 474 ft Donal O'Reilly — double · EV 105 mph · LA +15° · 223 ft Callum Toney — single · EV 114 mph · LA +8° · 149 ft Aleš Hranáč — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +5° · 91 ft Tiernan Whitehouse — double · EV 92 mph · LA +39° · 331 ft Erik Flores — single · EV 78 mph · LA +11° · 90 ft Aleš Koubek — double · EV 97 mph · LA +16° · 201 ft Domingo Ynoa — double · EV 100 mph · LA +31° · 353 ft Trent Green — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -4° · 80 ft Stuart Edwards — double · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 173 ft Joel Zendejas — hr · EV 114 mph · LA +29° · 448 ft Donal O'Reilly — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +30° · 480 ft Aleš Hranáč — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +32° · 320 ft Trent Green — double · EV 97 mph · LA +45° · 373 ft Stuart Edwards — double · EV 108 mph · LA +16° · 248 ft Domingo Ynoa — double · EV 109 mph · LA +24° · 355 ft Emile Homans — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA +9° · 114 ft Joel Zendejas — error · EV 75 mph · LA +9° · 68 ft Aleš Koubek — triple · EV 96 mph · LA +16° · 193 ft George Rice — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +15° · 153 ft Domingo Ynoa — double · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 164 ft Stuart Edwards — double · EV 88 mph · LA +35° · 292 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Lima BC
40% deserve-to-win  ·  14.7 expected runs
actual 16 runs  ·  +1.3 vs expected
contact: 31.3 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 33.0 (+1.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ctibor Černý 100 / +35° Pull Home Run 1.5 → 4 +2.48
Waltclaire Howell 109 / +32° Oppo Home Run 2.4 → 4 +1.63
Masaaki Kuki 87 / +37° Pull Double 0.5 → 2 +1.47
Callum Toone 93 / +17° Oppo Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Waltclaire Howell 92 / +17° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Montréal Cannery SARL
60% deserve-to-win  ·  18.1 expected runs
actual 22 runs  ·  +3.9 vs expected
contact: 36.1 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 46.0 (+9.9 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Aleš Koubek 96 / +16° Pull Triple 1.2 → 3 +1.84
Josef Krejčí 100 / +26° Pull Triple 1.2 → 3 +1.83
Trent Green 100 / +46° Pull Home Run 2.5 → 4 +1.51
Emile Homans 95 / +9° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Joel Zendejas 114 / +29° Pull Home Run 3.0 → 4 +1.03
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