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Liverpool BC 18, Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers 12           2046-04-21 · #942
at Munro Yards
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Aberdeen               12      0   12   15    1
Liverpool              18      0   18   17    1

ABERDEEN UNIVERSAL WATCHMAKERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Karas       2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Shurtleff   1b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Maharaj-Sal cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   1  0.500
  a-Pavlenk pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Moravec     3b ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Carusa      c  ......    4   1   4   3   1   0   3   0   1   1   0  1.000
  b-Pešek   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Carroll     lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Baugh   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Loftus-Chee p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Agnew   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Telford c  ......    4   3   3   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.750
  f-Ramsey  cf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Brown   ph ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Kudryavtsev j  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Williams    j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Zelem       j  ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Totals                  38  12  15   9   1   0  11   4   7   1   1  0.395
  2B: Shurtleff (4), Moravec (4), Kudryavtseva (10), Telford 2 (3), Carusa 3 (6), Zelem (6).
  3B: Carusa (2).
  CS: Williams (1).
  E: Moravec (2).
  GIDP: Moravec (2).
  a-Ran for Maharaj-Saliba in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Carusa in the 8th.
  c-Ran for Carroll in the 8th.
  d-Batted for Loftus-Cheek in the 5th.
  e-Entered at C in the 8th.
  f-Entered at CF in the 8th.
  g-Walked for Ramsey in the 9th.

LIVERPOOL BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Service     c  ......    3   3   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.667
Hampton     rf ......    1   3   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0   0  0.000
Millender   3b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   3   1   0   0   0  0.333
Williamson  lf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Dier        p  ......    4   2   2   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Seebaran    ss ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Kelly       cf ......    3   2   2   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.667
Etta        2b ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   1   2   1   1   0  1.000
Bushamuka   1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Fretz       j  ......    4   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Watkins     j  ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   2   1   1   2   0  0.667
Hašek       j  ......    4   2   3   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.750
Totals                  36  18  17   6   0   2  15   9   5   3   0  0.472
  2B: Service (11), Fretz (8), Millender (5), Hašek 2 (5), Seebaran (1).
  HR: Dier (2), off Celis; Kelly (6), off Hruban.
  SB: Hašek (3), Kelly (2).
  E: Etta (1).
  GIDP: Seebaran (1).


ABERDEEN UNIVERSAL WATCHMAKERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Loftus-Cheek ........     5    2   7%    2    2    2    3    1    0   22  1-0
Hruban (L) ..........     7    4  15%    4    4    3    1    1    1   21  1-1
Nakata ..............    13    8  30%    2    6    2    2    1    0   50  1-1
Lewis ...............    10    7  26%    4    2    2    2    1    0   29    -
Hrubý ...............     7    3  11%    4    3    3    1    1    0   21  1-0
Celis ...............     3    3  11%    1    1    1    0    0    1    5  1-0

LIVERPOOL BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Dier (W, 3-0) .......    25   17  63%    8    7    1    2    5    0   78    -
Carrascal ...........    15   10  37%    6    5    5    2    2    0   64  1-0

  Batting order: Liverpool BC (home) batted first; Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers batted second.
  Seconds: AUW o25 (12-18), LB1 o26 (18-0).
  First pitch 7:10 PM GMT. Weather: 66°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 459060.
  Walk-Back runs: off Hruban 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Olivier Fretz Dominic Hampton (1B) 0–1
B 0 Theo Watkins Aaron Service (3B) 0–2
B 1 Dominik Hašek Theo Watkins (1B) 0–3
B 1 Francois Millender Dominik Hašek (3B) 0–4
B 5 Eamon Kelly Eamon Kelly (HR) 0–5
B 5 Nehemiah Etta Eamon Kelly (3B) 0–6
B 6 Aaron Service Nehemiah Etta (1B) 0–7
B 10 Dominik Hašek Aaron Service (3B) 0–8
B 11 Eoin Dier Dominik Hašek (2B) 0–9
B 12 Alexis Bushamuka Eoin Dier (3B) 0–10
B 12 Alexis Bushamuka Bharath Seebaran (3B) 0–11
B 12 Alexis Bushamuka Nehemiah Etta (3B) 0–12
B 16 Theo Watkins Dominic Hampton (3B) 0–13
B 20 Eamon Kelly Bharath Seebaran (2B) 0–14
B 23 Francois Millender Aaron Service (2B) 0–15
B 23 Francois Millender Dominic Hampton (1B) 0–16
B 23 Fabio Williamson Francois Millender (2B) 0–17
B 26 Eoin Dier Eoin Dier (HR) 0–18
T 2 Igor Kudryavtseva Ramon Williams (2B) 1–18
T 4 Mohamed Maharaj-Saliba Jordan Ramsey (3B) 2–18
T 6 Oscar Carroll Fabian Telford (2B) 3–18
T 14 Maddux Agnew Ben Shurtleff (3B) 4–18
T 15 Padraig Carusa Fabian Telford (3B) 5–18
T 15 František Moravec Padraig Carusa (2B) 6–18
T 15 Ramon Williams František Moravec (2B) 7–18
T 19 Mohamed Maharaj-Saliba Fabian Telford (2B) 8–18
T 21 Padraig Carusa Dalibor Pavlenka (3B) 9–18
T 21 Padraig Carusa Zaire Baugh (2B) 10–18
T 24 Jarrod Zelem Bohumil Pešek (3B) 11–18
T 25 Ben Shurtleff Donal Brown (1B) 12–18
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Munro Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 344' · CF 429' · RF 298' · 33' wall). Short Porch (Right).
The Porch Crow's Nest Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers — Batted Balls
25 BIP· 4 1B · 10 XBH · 0 HR
344' 429' 298' Wall 33' Padraig Carusa — triple · EV 109 mph · LA +19° · 288 ft Jarrod Zelem — infield_single · EV 69 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Igor Kudryavtseva — double · EV 103 mph · LA +15° · 216 ft Jordan Ramsey — fielders_choice · EV 73 mph · LA -10° · 69 ft Ben Shurtleff — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -10° · 84 ft Fabian Telford — error · EV 98 mph · LA +24° · 289 ft Oscar Carroll — single · EV 80 mph · LA +14° · 115 ft Ramon Williams — single · EV 90 mph · LA +27° · 259 ft Dalibor Pavlenka — error · EV 58 mph · LA -2° · 55 ft Zaire Baugh — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 169 ft František Moravec — double_play · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 103 ft Jordan Ramsey — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -8° · 77 ft Radek Karas — ground_out · EV 103 mph · LA -8° · 98 ft Mohamed Maharaj-Saliba — single · EV 94 mph · LA +13° · 159 ft Igor Kudryavtseva — ground_out · EV 110 mph · LA +10° · 160 ft Padraig Carusa — double · EV 97 mph · LA +23° · 271 ft František Moravec — double · EV 98 mph · LA +30° · 332 ft Fabian Telford — double · EV 90 mph · LA +13° · 137 ft Radek Karas — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +28° · 255 ft Jarrod Zelem — double · EV 96 mph · LA +26° · 288 ft Ben Shurtleff — double · EV 89 mph · LA +21° · 210 ft Padraig Carusa — double · EV 100 mph · LA +35° · 375 ft Fabian Telford — double · EV 97 mph · LA +40° · 372 ft Radek Karas — ground_out · EV 59 mph · LA -15° · 56 ft Padraig Carusa — double · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 263 ft
Liverpool BC — Batted Balls
33 BIP· 9 1B · 6 XBH · 2 HR
344' 429' 298' Wall 33' Olivier Fretz — double · EV 85 mph · LA +13° · 128 ft Theo Watkins — single · EV 81 mph · LA -13° · 77 ft Dominik Hašek — double · EV 99 mph · LA +29° · 329 ft Francois Millender — fly_out · EV 110 mph · LA +12° · 200 ft Eoin Dier — single · EV 91 mph · LA +12° · 134 ft Bharath Seebaran — double_play · EV 75 mph · LA -3° · 71 ft Eamon Kelly — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +47° · 399 ft Nehemiah Etta — single · EV 91 mph · LA +19° · 206 ft Alexis Bushamuka — line_out · EV 91 mph · LA +10° · 113 ft Aaron Service — double · EV 96 mph · LA +22° · 249 ft Dominic Hampton — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -1° · 76 ft Theo Watkins — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA -4° · 91 ft Francois Millender — fly_out · EV 70 mph · LA +27° · 158 ft Dominik Hašek — single · EV 67 mph · LA +11° · 66 ft Fabio Williamson — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -2° · 73 ft Eoin Dier — error · EV 88 mph · LA -3° · 84 ft Eamon Kelly — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +38° · 328 ft Aaron Service — ground_out · EV 115 mph · LA +4° · 109 ft Theo Watkins — single · EV 95 mph · LA -6° · 90 ft Bharath Seebaran — double · EV 104 mph · LA +31° · 387 ft Fabio Williamson — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +16° · 138 ft Olivier Fretz — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -1° · 86 ft Dominik Hašek — double · EV 102 mph · LA +13° · 186 ft Eoin Dier — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -4° · 79 ft Eamon Kelly — single · EV 83 mph · LA +6° · 79 ft Alexis Bushamuka — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +28° · 202 ft Aaron Service — single · EV 93 mph · LA -8° · 89 ft Francois Millender — double · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 154 ft Theo Watkins — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 243 ft Fabio Williamson — single · EV 91 mph · LA +22° · 225 ft Olivier Fretz — infield_single · EV 72 mph · LA +7° · 68 ft Dominik Hašek — fly_out · EV 63 mph · LA +36° · 152 ft Eoin Dier — hr · EV 108 mph · LA +46° · 463 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers
26% deserve-to-win  ·  12.5 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  -0.5 vs expected
contact: 22.8 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 24.0 (+1.2 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Igor Kudryavtseva 110 / +10° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.41
Padraig Carusa 109 / +19° Pull Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.32
Fabian Telford 98 / +24° Oppo Reached on Error 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Fabian Telford 90 / +13° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.13
Padraig Carusa 100 / +35° Center Stay 2.0 → 1 -1.02
Liverpool BC
74% deserve-to-win  ·  21.2 expected runs
actual 18 runs  ·  -3.2 vs expected
contact: 27.5 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 29.0 (+1.5 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Eamon Kelly 100 / +47° Oppo Home Run 2.5 → 4 +1.51
Francois Millender 110 / +12° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.41
Olivier Fretz 85 / +13° Pull Double 0.6 → 2 +1.38
Francois Millender 92 / +14° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.13
Eamon Kelly 92 / +38° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
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