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Erdenet Sawmill 7, Itelka Beysbol'nyy Klub 4                 2046-04-21 · #961
at Crescent Genia Park
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Erdenet                 7      -    7    9    0
Itelka                  3      1    4    5    1

ERDENET SAWMILL
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Liz         cf ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   2   0   0   1   0  0.667
Butt        lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Geraldo     rf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Nagy        1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.500
Devereaux   p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Rahimi  ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Pauling ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Bastard ph ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
  d-Jansen  pr ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  e-Schraut ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  f-Davis   pr ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Pritchard   j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   1   0  0.333
Samuel      j  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Porter      j  ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   7   9   2   0   0   6   4  11   2   1  0.300
  2B: Rahimi (2), Samuel (6).
  SB: Rahimi (1), Davis (3).
  CS: Liz (2), Jansen (1).
  a-Doubled in the 2nd.
  b-Walked in the 2nd.
  c-Batted for Pritchard in the 2nd.
  d-Ran for Pauling in the 2nd.
  e-Batted in the 3rd.
  f-Ran in the 3rd.

ITELKA BEYSBOL'NYY KLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Muzaev      rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Kukushkin   3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Pepelyaeva  ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Vlasov      cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.000
Matsukevich 1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Santana     lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Jonesov     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Davletshin  p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
  a-Samsono c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Fitzgibbon  j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Chalova     j  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Difo        j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Totals                  26   4   5   0   0   0   3   5   7   0   1  0.192
  SB: Muzaev (1).
  CS: Fitzgibbon (1).
  E: Pepelyaeva (4).
  HBP: Fitzgibbon (1).
  GIDP: Samsonova (2), Pepelyaeva (2), Difo (2).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

ERDENET SAWMILL PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Devereaux (W, 2-1) ..    21   17  63%    3    3    3    5    3    0   72    -
Kirkland (F, 10) ....    11   10  37%    2    1    1    0    4    0   50  1-1

ITELKA BEYSBOL'NYY KLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Davletshin ..........    11    9  33%    1    2    2    2    4    0   54    -
Smolina (L, 0-1) ....    12    9  33%    3    3    3    2    4    0   43  2-1
Cummings-Coleman ....    10    9  33%    4    2    1    0    3    0   39  2-1

  Batting order: Itelka Beysbol'nyy Klub (home) batted second; Erdenet Sawmill batted first.
  Seconds: IBK o26 (3-7).
  First pitch 5:00 PM PETT. Weather: 45°F · Wind out · Clear · Light rain · Dry. seed 57168.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 3 Saman Rahimi Yefri Geraldo (3B) 1–0
T 8 James Liz Maurice Davis (3B) 2–0
T 14 Jerry Samuel Frank Porter (1B) 3–0
T 16 Endy Bastardo Jerry Samuel (2B) 4–0
T 17 Franklin Pritchard Maurice Davis (3B) 5–0
T 18 James Liz Endy Bastardo (3B) 6–0
T 25 Endy Bastardo Frank Porter (3B) 7–0
B 13 Gleb Vlasov Sergei Kukushkin (3B) 7–1
B 14 Maxim Pepelyaeva Semyon Chalova (3B) 7–2
B 21 Semyon Chalova Geraldo Difo (3B) 7–3
seconds_second 0 Victor Santana Maxim Pepelyaeva (2B) 7–4
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Crescent Genia Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 330' · CF 433' · RF 307' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Right).
Flag Pole in Play Knothole Gates
Erdenet Sawmill — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 6 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
330' 433' 307' Saman Rahimi — double · EV 96 mph · LA +30° · 322 ft Jerry Samuel — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +39° · 331 ft Frank Porter — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA +8° · 57 ft Maurice Davis — fielders_choice · EV 66 mph · LA -14° · 62 ft James Liz — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +27° · 186 ft Dries Butt — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Jerry Samuel — double · EV 107 mph · LA +22° · 313 ft Endy Bastardo — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 141 ft David Nagy — single · EV 77 mph · LA +2° · 74 ft Frank Porter — error · EV 67 mph · LA -3° · 64 ft Strong Jansen — single · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 244 ft Franklin Pritchard — single · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 68 ft James Liz — single · EV 81 mph · LA +15° · 129 ft Yefri Geraldo — line_out · EV 90 mph · LA +13° · 141 ft James Liz — single · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 112 ft
Itelka Beysbol'nyy Klub — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
330' 433' 307' Sergei Kukushkin — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +4° · 49 ft Teymuraz Muzaev — fly_out · EV 55 mph · LA +46° · 121 ft Victor Santana — single · EV 80 mph · LA -10° · 76 ft Taras Samsonova — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Semyon Chalova — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft Geraldo Difo — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 142 ft Maxim Pepelyaeva — double_play · EV 64 mph · LA -1° · 61 ft Teymuraz Muzaev — single · EV 92 mph · LA +25° · 257 ft Sergei Kukushkin — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -4° · 49 ft Semyon Chalova — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -4° · 49 ft Geraldo Difo — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -6° · 49 ft Evgenii Matsukevich — single · EV 79 mph · LA +13° · 109 ft Maxim Pepelyaeva — single · EV 89 mph · LA +3° · 85 ft Victor Santana — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -4° · 80 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Erdenet Sawmill
80% deserve-to-win  ·  3.9 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +3.1 vs expected
contact: 9.7 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+0.3 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 2 CS (-1.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jerry Samuel 92 / +39° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Yefri Geraldo 90 / +13° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.87
Saman Rahimi 96 / +30° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.83
David Nagy 77 / +2° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Franklin Pritchard 76 / +9° Center Stay 0.5 → 1 +0.49
Itelka Beysbol'nyy Klub
20% deserve-to-win  ·  2.0 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +2.0 vs expected
contact: 4.4 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (+0.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Victor Santana 80 / -10° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.65
Maxim Pepelyaeva 89 / +3° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
Evgenii Matsukevich 79 / +13° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.49
Geraldo Difo 76 / +19° Oppo Single 0.6 → 1 +0.39
Victor Santana 85 / -4° Pull Out 0.4 → 0 -0.36
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