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Adelaide Baseball Club 21, Brisbane Thunder 7                2046-04-22 · #968
at Billa Bowl
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Adelaide               21      0   21   21    0
Brisbane                6      1    7   11    1

ADELAIDE BASEBALL CLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Spiranovic  lf ......    4   3   2   1   0   1   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Blanchard   c  ......    5   4   4   0   0   1   4   0   0   0   0  0.800
Hadlee      rf ......    5   2   3   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.600
Postecoglou ss ......    5   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   3   0   0  0.200
Bannatyne   p  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Ili         cf ......    4   2   2   0   1   1   3   0   2   0   0  0.500
Moras       3b ......    4   2   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Mulligan    2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Herbert     1b ......    4   5   4   1   2   1   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Patel       j  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
Hrustic     j  ......    3   1   2   1   1   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Totals                  44  21  21   6   4   4  20   1  11   0   0  0.477
  2B: Spiranovic (6), Hadlee (3), Postecoglou (1), Patel (4), Hrustic (4), Herbert (10).
  3B: Hrustic (2), Ili (2), Herbert 2 (2).
  HR: Spiranovic (3), off Bowen; Blanchard (1), off Bowen; Ili (2), off Turner; Herbert (2), off Turner.
  CS: Patel (4).


BRISBANE THUNDER
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Hsia        2b ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
Gauci       1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Brondel pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Leckie      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1  0.000
Wagner      rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Henry       cf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Gorry       lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Gustavsson  3b ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Ingles      ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  b-Morgan  c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Vukovic     j  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Robinson    j  ......    3   2   2   2   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
Toumi       j  ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.500
Totals                  30   7  11   5   0   0   7   3  13   0   2  0.367
  2B: Hsia (3), Robinson 2 (7), Toumi (6), Gustavsson (3).
  CS: Vukovic (6), Gustavsson (3).
  E: Leckie (1).
  HBP: Gauci (1), Toumi (3).
  a-Ran for Gauci in the 9th.
  b-Entered at C in the 7th.

ADELAIDE BASEBALL CLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bannatyne (W, 3-0) ..    35   27 100%   11    7    7    3   13    0  139    -

BRISBANE THUNDER PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Leckie ..............     8    4  15%    4    2    2    0    3    0   32    -
Chidiac .............    11    8  30%    3    3    3    1    4    0   41  1-1
Gregorius ...........     9    6  22%    5    3    3    0    1    0   33  1-0
Turner ..............    13    8  30%    5    7    7    0    4    2   47  1-1
Bowen (L, 0-3) ......     5    1   4%    4    6    4    0    0    2   13  1-1

  Batting order: Brisbane Thunder (home) batted second; Adelaide Baseball Club batted first.
  Seconds: ABC o26 (21-0), BT o25 (6-21).
  First pitch 1:35 PM VLAT. Weather: 64°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain. seed 891483.
  Walk-Back runs: off Turner 1, off Bowen 2.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 3 Dave Patel Simon Spiranovic (2B) 1–0
T 3 Brad Hrustic Dave Patel (2B) 2–0
T 3 Grant Bannatyne Brad Hrustic (3B) 3–0
T 8 Erick Blanchard Paul Herbert (3B) 4–0
T 11 Brad Hrustic Erick Blanchard (1B) 5–0
T 17 Erick Blanchard Paul Herbert (2B) 6–0
T 17 Miloš Postecoglou Erick Blanchard (2B) 7–0
T 17 Miloš Postecoglou Taylor Hadlee (1B) 8–0
T 18 Dave Patel Miloš Postecoglou (3B) 9–0
T 21 Paul Herbert Thomas Moras (1B) 10–0
T 21 Paul Herbert Paul Herbert (HR) 11–0
T 21 Simon Spiranovic Paul Herbert (3B) 12–0
T 25 Rachin Ili Erick Blanchard (2B) 13–0
T 25 Rachin Ili Taylor Hadlee (1B) 14–0
T 25 Rachin Ili Rachin Ili (HR) 15–0
T 25 Thomas Moras Rachin Ili (3B) 16–0
T 26 Paul Herbert Thomas Moras (1B) 17–0
T 26 Simon Spiranovic Paul Herbert (3B) 18–0
T 26 Simon Spiranovic Simon Spiranovic (HR) 19–0
T 26 Erick Blanchard Simon Spiranovic (3B) 20–0
T 26 Erick Blanchard Erick Blanchard (HR) 21–0
B 1 Casey Wagner Mark Robinson (2B) 21–1
B 15 Anis Toumi Mark Robinson (2B) 21–2
B 24 Andrew Henry Anis Toumi (2B) 21–3
B 25 David Gorry Andrew Henry (3B) 21–4
B 25 Glenn Gustavsson Anis Toumi (3B) 21–5
B 25 Glenn Gustavsson Fran Brondello (2B) 21–6
seconds_second 0 Chien-fu Hsia Andrej Ingles (1B) 21–7
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Billa Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 387' · CF 416' · RF 367' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Members' Pavilion
Adelaide Baseball Club — Batted Balls
29 BIP· 7 1B · 10 XBH · 4 HR
387' 416' 367' Simon Spiranovic — double · EV 110 mph · LA +16° · 257 ft Dave Patel — double · EV 100 mph · LA +30° · 348 ft Brad Hrustic — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 224 ft Grant Bannatyne — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +42° · 255 ft Thomas Moras — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +37° · 295 ft Paul Herbert — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 208 ft Ish Mulligan — fly_out · EV 107 mph · LA +56° · 419 ft Erick Blanchard — single · EV 85 mph · LA -2° · 81 ft Taylor Hadlee — fly_out · EV 91 mph · LA +34° · 311 ft Brad Hrustic — double · EV 115 mph · LA +20° · 336 ft Rachin Ili — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 308 ft Paul Herbert — double · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 182 ft Ish Mulligan — fly_out · EV 99 mph · LA +41° · 390 ft Erick Blanchard — single · EV 105 mph · LA +32° · 397 ft Taylor Hadlee — single · EV 82 mph · LA +28° · 227 ft Miloš Postecoglou — double · EV 110 mph · LA +28° · 403 ft Grant Bannatyne — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +6° · 82 ft Dave Patel — error · EV 64 mph · LA -8° · 60 ft Thomas Moras — single · EV 95 mph · LA +10° · 122 ft Paul Herbert — hr · EV 113 mph · LA +36° · 480 ft Ish Mulligan — fly_out · EV 119 mph · LA +60° · 480 ft Erick Blanchard — single · EV 98 mph · LA -3° · 93 ft Taylor Hadlee — single · EV 99 mph · LA +11° · 147 ft Rachin Ili — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +34° · 447 ft Thomas Moras — single · EV 95 mph · LA +19° · 223 ft Paul Herbert — triple · EV 119 mph · LA +25° · 438 ft Simon Spiranovic — hr · EV 108 mph · LA +31° · 407 ft Erick Blanchard — hr · EV 112 mph · LA +30° · 433 ft Taylor Hadlee — double · EV 114 mph · LA +20° · 337 ft
Brisbane Thunder — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 6 1B · 5 XBH · 0 HR
387' 416' 367' Aaron Vukovic — single · EV 100 mph · LA -9° · 95 ft Mark Robinson — double · EV 106 mph · LA +26° · 356 ft Casey Wagner — single · EV 99 mph · LA -2° · 94 ft Anis Toumi — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -14° · 75 ft Glenn Gustavsson — double · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 178 ft Andrej Ingles — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -10° · 79 ft Chien-fu Hsia — single · EV 115 mph · LA +9° · 158 ft Aaron Vukovic — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA +6° · 88 ft Mark Robinson — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 220 ft Anis Toumi — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 211 ft Andrej Ingles — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +20° · 187 ft Andrew Henry — single · EV 95 mph · LA +10° · 127 ft Aaron Vukovic — line_out · EV 114 mph · LA +8° · 108 ft Glenn Gustavsson — single · EV 87 mph · LA +17° · 171 ft Andrej Ingles — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 98 ft Chien-fu Hsia — double · EV 92 mph · LA +26° · 270 ft Aaron Vukovic — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +4° · 87 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Adelaide Baseball Club
79% deserve-to-win  ·  16.8 expected runs
actual 21 runs  ·  +4.2 vs expected
contact: 44.9 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 47.0 (+2.1 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Erick Blanchard 105 / +32° Oppo Single 3.0 → 1 -2.01
Ish Mulligan 99 / +41° Center Out 1.9 → 0 -1.95
Simon Spiranovic 108 / +31° Oppo Home Run 2.1 → 4 +1.95
Paul Herbert 100 / +16° Oppo Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.74
Ish Mulligan 119 / +60° Center Out 1.6 → 0 -1.64
Brisbane Thunder
21% deserve-to-win  ·  8.6 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  -1.6 vs expected
contact: 14.5 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 16.0 (+1.5 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Chien-fu Hsia 92 / +26° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Glenn Gustavsson 100 / +13° Oppo Double 1.3 → 2 +0.74
Anis Toumi 100 / +16° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.74
Andrej Ingles 86 / +20° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.71
Aaron Vukovic 114 / +8° Oppo Out 0.7 → 0 -0.70
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