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Brasília Stevedores 12, Pan Am Mountaineers 2               2046-04-23 · #1039
at Barquisimeto Park
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                        1    R    H    E
Brasília               12   12   15    0
Barquisimeto            2    2    5    0

BRASÍLIA STEVEDORES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cabrera     cf ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Delgado pr ......    3   2   3   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Gustavo     ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Cruz        c  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Kobayas pr ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Trauco      rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Marx    pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Adames      3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Encarna pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bonsegundo  p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Ramón   ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  f-Bautist ph ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Watanab ph ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
  h-Arángui pr ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  i-Guerra  ph ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  j-García  ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Polanco     j  ......    3   2   2   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.667
Cabrera     j  ......    3   1   1   0   1   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
Saprissa    j  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
Totals                  36  12  15   6   1   0  11   5   9   0   0  0.417
  2B: Cabrera (2), Delgado (4), Cruz (4), Kobayashi-Ferreira (4), Guerra (2), Saprissa (8).
  3B: Cabrera (1).
  SB: Polanco (2).
  GIDP: Aránguiz (2), Marx (2).
  a-Ran for Cabrera in the 1st.
  b-Ran for Cruz in the 2nd.
  c-Ran for Trauco in the 6th.
  d-Ran for Adames in the 2nd.
  e-Batted for Bonsegundo in the 6th.
  f-Batted in the 1st.
  g-Batted in the 2nd.
  h-Ran in the 2nd.
  i-Doubled in the 2nd.
  j-Batted for Guerra in the 5th.

PAN AM MOUNTAINEERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Tomita-Alme ss ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Tuominen    p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Vargas      2b ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   1   0  1.000
Wanjiru     1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Feliz       c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Dybala      cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Santos      rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Martins     3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Quiñone cf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Melo        j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Sampaio     j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Paniagua    j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  26   2   5   1   0   0   2   3  12   1   0  0.192
  2B: Tomita-Almeida (2).
  HBP: Santos 2 (2).
  GIDP: Wanjiru (1), Sampaio (1).
  a-Entered at CF in the 7th.

BRASÍLIA STEVEDORES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bonsegundo (W, 2-1) .    18   15  56%    4    1    1    2    4    0   68    -
Dolphins (F, 33) ....    13   12  44%    1    1    1    1    8    0   52  2-1

PAN AM MOUNTAINEERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Tuominen (L, 0-4) ...    14    7  26%    5    6    6    3    2    0   27    -
Santos ..............    15   10  37%    6    4    4    2    3    0   63  1-1
Rosales .............    12   10  37%    4    2    2    0    4    0   43  2-2

  Batting order: Pan Am Mountaineers (home) batted second; Brasília Stevedores batted first.
  First pitch 7:35 PM. Weather: 85°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 753568.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 4 Manny Cruz Jean Delgado (3B) 1–0
T 4 Manny Cruz Jorge Aránguiz (2B) 2–0
T 5 Joaquín Saprissa Renato Kobayashi-Ferreira (2B) 3–0
T 5 Joaquín Saprissa Albert Encarnación (1B) 4–0
T 7 Junior Cabrera Wilmer Guerra (2B) 5–0
T 7 Junior Cabrera Robinson Polanco (1B) 6–0
T 8 Jean Delgado Junior Cabrera (3B) 7–0
T 15 Jean Delgado Eugene Marx (3B) 8–0
T 16 Jorge Aránguiz Robinson Polanco (3B) 9–0
T 17 Igor Watanabe-Santos Jean Delgado (3B) 10–0
T 17 Renato Kobayashi-Ferreira Jorge Aránguiz (3B) 11–0
T 17 Renato Kobayashi-Ferreira Igor Watanabe-Santos (1B) 12–0
B 15 Néstor Paniagua Sadiel Quiñones (3B) 12–1
B 17 Víctor Vargas Víctor Vargas (3B) 12–2
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Barquisimeto Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 347' · CF 445' · RF 354' · 11' wall). Balanced.
Brasília Stevedores — Batted Balls
24 BIP· 8 1B · 7 XBH · 0 HR
347' 445' 354' Carlos Cabrera — double · EV 104 mph · LA +21° · 286 ft Jack Bautista — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +39° · 265 ft Robinson Polanco — fly_out · EV 68 mph · LA +26° · 144 ft Junior Cabrera — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +25° · 184 ft Manny Cruz — double · EV 98 mph · LA +22° · 270 ft Joaquín Saprissa — double · EV 89 mph · LA +34° · 295 ft Wilmer Guerra — double · EV 94 mph · LA +20° · 228 ft Jean Delgado — single · EV 93 mph · LA +9° · 108 ft Jorge Aránguiz — double_play · EV 96 mph · LA +2° · 91 ft Fernando Ramón — single · EV 95 mph · LA +20° · 235 ft Renato Kobayashi-Ferreira — double · EV 96 mph · LA +36° · 355 ft Eugene Marx — double_play · EV 84 mph · LA -10° · 80 ft Junior Cabrera — triple · EV 103 mph · LA +17° · 240 ft Jack Bautista — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 313 ft Robinson Polanco — single · EV 109 mph · LA +8° · 103 ft Jean Delgado — single · EV 84 mph · LA +13° · 123 ft Jorge Aránguiz — single · EV 94 mph · LA +30° · 304 ft Albert Encarnación — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +16° · 130 ft Bill García — single · EV 84 mph · LA +16° · 153 ft Igor Watanabe-Santos — single · EV 100 mph · LA -8° · 95 ft Joaquín Saprissa — fly_out · EV 90 mph · LA +32° · 290 ft Robinson Polanco — single · EV 100 mph · LA +5° · 95 ft Jean Delgado — double · EV 112 mph · LA +21° · 336 ft Jack Bautista — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +7° · 91 ft
Pan Am Mountaineers — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
347' 445' 354' Francisco Melo — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA +8° · 61 ft Tom Wanjiru — single · EV 76 mph · LA -8° · 72 ft Ronaldo Sampaio — double_play · EV 62 mph · LA +7° · 59 ft Marcelo Tomita-Almeida — double · EV 76 mph · LA +36° · 220 ft Néstor Paniagua — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 163 ft Víctor Vargas — single · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Tom Wanjiru — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -13° · 72 ft Francisco Melo — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA -5° · 55 ft Ronaldo Sampaio — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +7° · 79 ft Marcelo Tomita-Almeida — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -9° · 87 ft Néstor Paniagua — single · EV 67 mph · LA +22° · 124 ft Paulo Dybala — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +4° · 49 ft Víctor Vargas — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 116 ft Miika Tuominen — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Ronaldo Sampaio — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brasília Stevedores
95% deserve-to-win  ·  12.4 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  -0.4 vs expected
contact: 20.3 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 23.0 (+2.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Junior Cabrera 103 / +17° Oppo Triple 1.5 → 3 +1.46
Jack Bautista 92 / +34° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Wilmer Guerra 94 / +20° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +1.00
Joaquín Saprissa 89 / +34° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Joaquín Saprissa 90 / +32° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.79
Pan Am Mountaineers
5% deserve-to-win  ·  2.8 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 4.6 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (+1.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Marcelo Tomita-Almeida 76 / +36° Center Double 0.1 → 2 +1.87
Tom Wanjiru 76 / -8° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Víctor Vargas 76 / +4° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Néstor Paniagua 76 / +22° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.60
Néstor Paniagua 67 / +22° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
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