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Perth Smelters 3, Sydney Border Force 2                     2046-04-23 · #1038
at Genia Grounds
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                        1    R    H    E
Perth                   3    3    2    1
Sydney                  2    2    3    0

PERTH SMELTERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kinzer      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Arzani      1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Wesbroo cf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Foster  c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Syph-Ti rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Madgen  c  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Redmayn 2b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Wetzell c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-McCullu c  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Olla        j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                   6   3   2   1   0   0   3   4   1   0   0  0.333
  2B: McCullum (3).
  E: Redmayne (1).
  HBP: Arzani (3).
  a-Entered at CF in the 3rd.
  b-Entered at C in the 3rd.
  c-Entered at RF in the 3rd.
  d-Entered at C in the 4th.
  e-Entered at 2B in the 9th.
  f-Entered at C in the 6th.
  g-Entered at C in the 9th.

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Gorry       c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Halloran    ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Lochhead    lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Crowe       cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Nelsen  pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Pledger     2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Blundel pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Buffington  rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Wagner  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Rowles      1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Vine        3b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Williamson  p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Fotu    pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Jiménez ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Nayler  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Riise   ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Anton       j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hunt        j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   2   3   0   0   0   2   2  10   0   0  0.107
  SB: Wagner (3).
  a-Ran for Crowe in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Pledger in the 6th.
  c-Ran for Buffington in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Williamson in the 7th.
  e-Grounded out for Wagner in the 5th.
  f-Struck out in the 6th.
  g-Replaced Jiménez-Tromp at SS in the 7th.

PERTH SMELTERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Kinzer (W, 2-0) .....    22   18  67%    2    2    2    2    7    0   70    -
Rangihau ............     8    9  33%    1    0    0    0    3    0   28  2-0

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Williamson (L, 0-2) .    11    5  19%    2    3    3    4    1    0   40    -

  Batting order: Sydney Border Force (home) batted first; Perth Smelters batted second.
  First pitch 7:10 PM VLAT. Weather: 46°F · Wind cross · Overcast · Dry. seed 84785.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 14 Mitchell Pledger Brendan Wagner (3B) 0–1
B 18 Hemi Williamson Jordan Blundell (3B) 0–2
T 4 Iain McCullum Antonio Wesbrook (3B) 1–2
T 4 Iain McCullum Scott Olla (2B) 2–2
T 5 Aaron Arzani Nikita Madgen (3B) 3–2
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Genia Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 362' · CF 435' · RF 397' · 7' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Perth Smelters — Batted Balls
3 BIP· 1 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
362' 435' 397' Antonio Wesbrook — fielders_choice · EV 92 mph · LA -8° · 87 ft Iain McCullum — double · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 314 ft Aaron Arzani — single · EV 79 mph · LA +10° · 84 ft
Sydney Border Force — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
362' 435' 397' Todd Gorry — error · EV 76 mph · LA +3° · 72 ft Mark Anton — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 106 ft Richard Hunt — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +45° · 231 ft Doug Crowe — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA -7° · 55 ft Mitchell Pledger — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +2° · 49 ft Marco Vine — single · EV 83 mph · LA +15° · 140 ft Grant Nelsen — single · EV 52 mph · LA +12° · 60 ft Jordan Blundell — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -23° · 72 ft Jørgen Riise — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +34° · 213 ft Shaun Halloran — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +14° · 60 ft Richard Hunt — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 167 ft Taylor Lochhead — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +31° · 299 ft Mitchell Pledger — single · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Hemi Williamson — error · EV 77 mph · LA +17° · 130 ft Mark Anton — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 109 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Perth Smelters
56% deserve-to-win  ·  3.0 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 2.0 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (+1.0 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Iain McCullum 92 / +34° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Aaron Arzani 79 / +10° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
Antonio Wesbrook 92 / -8° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.43
Sydney Border Force
44% deserve-to-win  ·  2.7 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -0.7 vs expected
contact: 5.8 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-2.8 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Taylor Lochhead 92 / +31° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.79
Mitchell Pledger 76 / +6° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Richard Hunt 76 / +23° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.60
Hemi Williamson 77 / +17° Pull Reached on Error 0.6 → 0 -0.60
Grant Nelsen 52 / +12° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
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