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Wellington Northern Shipping Co. Pty Ltd 8, Sydney Border Force 7 2046-04-25 · #1130
at Genia Grounds
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Wellington              8      0    8   10    0
Sydney                  7      0    7    3    0

WELLINGTON NORTHERN SHIPPING CO. PTY LTD
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mitchell    1b ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   1   0  0.667
Salunkhe    lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Mitchell    cf ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Turner      2b ......    2   2   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Clarke      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Spiranovic  rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Olla        3b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Campbell    ss ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Kahukura    p  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Hakala      j  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Moore       j  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32   8  10   4   0   0   7   5   7   1   0  0.312
  2B: Mitchell (12), Mitchell (10), Olla (1), Campbell (3).
  CS: Mitchell (3).
  HBP: Mitchell (3).
  GIDP: Olla (1).


SYDNEY BORDER FORCE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Lochhead    ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Gorry       c  ......    2   3   2   2   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  1.000
Crowe       cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Buffington  rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Rowles      2b ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.000
Rulli       1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Wagner  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kete        3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Henry       p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Nayler  c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1  0.000
  c-Vine    ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Arnold  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Hunt        j  ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   7   3   2   0   0   7   6  10   0   1  0.103
  2B: Gorry 2 (5).
  SB: Gorry 2 (4), Hunt (5).
  GIDP: Henry (1).
  a-Grounded out for Rulli in the 7th.
  b-Entered at C in the 7th.
  c-Walked for Hunt in the 8th.
  d-Grounded out in the 9th.

WELLINGTON NORTHERN SHIPPING CO. PTY LTD PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Kahukura (W, 2-5) ...    32   25  93%    3    6    3    6    9    0  114    -
Bailey ..............     2    2   7%    0    1    1    0    1    0    7  3-1

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Henry ...............    18   11  41%    5    3    3    3    2    0   54    -
Aroha (L, 0-3) ......     5    2   7%    2    4    4    1    1    0   25  3-3
Karačić .............    15   14  52%    3    1    1    1    4    0   56  2-1

  Batting order: Sydney Border Force (home) batted second; Wellington Northern Shipping Co. Pty Ltd batted first.
  Seconds: WNS o25 (8-0), SBF o26 (7-8).
  First pitch 7:15 PM VLAT. Weather: 38°F · Wind in · Overcast. seed 57206.
  Powerplays: Sydney Border Force — Arnold NF
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 8 Dyson Campbell Ricky Turner (2B) 1–0
T 8 Jarrod Mitchell Dyson Campbell (2B) 2–0
T 9 Shane Mitchell Leo Kahukura (3B) 3–0
T 10 Ricky Turner Jarrod Mitchell (3B) 4–0
T 11 Vince Spiranovic Bhargav Salunkhe (3B) 5–0
T 11 Ben Olla Shane Mitchell (3B) 6–0
T 11 Ben Olla Ricky Turner (3B) 7–0
T 16 Shane Mitchell Ben Olla (2B) 8–0
B 0 Doug Crowe Todd Gorry (3B) 8–1
B 14 Manuel Rulli Todd Gorry (3B) 8–2
B 15 Ihaka Henry Richard Hunt (3B) 8–3
B 19 Rhyan Rowles Todd Gorry (3B) 8–4
B 19 Rhyan Rowles Doug Crowe (2B) 8–5
B 21 Pita Kete Richard Hunt (3B) 8–6
B 24 Nikita Arnold Rhyan Rowles (3B) 8–7
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Genia Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 362' · CF 435' · RF 397' · 7' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Wellington Northern Shipping Co. Pty Ltd — Batted Balls
24 BIP· 6 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
362' 435' 397' Bhargav Salunkhe — single · EV 98 mph · LA +7° · 93 ft Niko Hakala — fielders_choice · EV 57 mph · LA -5° · 54 ft Ricky Turner — single · EV 72 mph · LA +18° · 120 ft Jock Clarke — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 77 ft Vince Spiranovic — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +51° · 227 ft Ben Olla — double_play · EV 73 mph · LA -18° · 70 ft Dyson Campbell — double · EV 103 mph · LA +15° · 215 ft Jarrod Mitchell — double · EV 100 mph · LA +39° · 391 ft Niko Hakala — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +31° · 262 ft Ricky Turner — single · EV 92 mph · LA +52° · 328 ft Ben Olla — double · EV 93 mph · LA +20° · 227 ft Jarrod Mitchell — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +40° · 282 ft Bhargav Salunkhe — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -2° · 88 ft Shane Mitchell — double · EV 99 mph · LA +25° · 298 ft Leo Kahukura — single · EV 78 mph · LA +7° · 74 ft Niko Hakala — error · EV 87 mph · LA +16° · 164 ft Hamish Moore — fly_out · EV 67 mph · LA +49° · 179 ft Ben Olla — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 286 ft Dyson Campbell — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Jarrod Mitchell — single · EV 86 mph · LA +15° · 148 ft Shane Mitchell — single · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 198 ft Jarrod Mitchell — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +21° · 245 ft Niko Hakala — line_out · EV 87 mph · LA +10° · 107 ft Hamish Moore — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -15° · 74 ft
Sydney Border Force — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 1 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
362' 435' 397' Todd Gorry — double · EV 105 mph · LA +16° · 227 ft Doug Crowe — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA +2° · 62 ft Richard Hunt — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 194 ft Rhyan Rowles — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +10° · 105 ft Taylor Lochhead — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft Nikita Arnold — ground_out · EV 107 mph · LA +4° · 102 ft Doug Crowe — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +11° · 111 ft Manuel Rulli — single · EV 86 mph · LA +11° · 115 ft Pita Kete — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +8° · 79 ft Ihaka Henry — double_play · EV 65 mph · LA -14° · 61 ft Todd Gorry — double · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 152 ft Rhyan Rowles — error · EV 70 mph · LA -18° · 66 ft Pita Kete — ground_out · EV 104 mph · LA +4° · 99 ft Rhyan Rowles — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA -14° · 69 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Wellington Northern Shipping Co. Pty Ltd
75% deserve-to-win  ·  10.7 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  -2.7 vs expected
contact: 15.8 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (-1.8 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ben Olla 100 / +23° Center Out 1.5 → 0 -1.54
Jarrod Mitchell 95 / +21° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.01
Ben Olla 93 / +20° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.99
Shane Mitchell 99 / +25° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.84
Dyson Campbell 103 / +15° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.74
Sydney Border Force
25% deserve-to-win  ·  6.3 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +0.7 vs expected
contact: 8.5 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-3.5 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 0 CS (+0.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Richard Hunt 100 / +14° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.26
Rhyan Rowles 90 / +10° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
Todd Gorry 100 / +11° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.74
Todd Gorry 105 / +16° Center Double 1.4 → 2 +0.62
Doug Crowe 85 / +11° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.62
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