Spray ChartsHybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Mbarara Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions
(LF 330' · CF 389' · RF 332' · 11' wall).
Balanced.
Ivy Wall
Olympika Imperial Tailors — Batted Balls
5 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
Mbarara Hounds — Batted Balls
3 BIP· 1 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
Luck LedgerDeserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Olympika Imperial Tailors
13%deserve-to-win · 1.0 expected runs
actual 1 run
· as expected
contact: 1.8 est bases + 1 walk/HBP
· actual batted 2.0 (+0.2 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 0 CS (+0.6 runs)