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Erdenet Sawmill 7, Panevėžys Bottling Co. 6                 2046-05-01 · #1370
at Sarraf Park
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                        1    R    H    E
Erdenet                 7    7    9    0
Panevėžys               6    6    9    0

ERDENET SAWMILL
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Bastardo    3b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Dōan        c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Geraldo pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Sylla       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Bower   c  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Vanderh cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0  0.000
  d-Davis   ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  e-Rahimi  c  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
  f-Gautche c  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Castill c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pritchard   j  ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Porter      j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Samuel      j  ......    3   2   3   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  20   7   9   3   0   0   6   2   5   1   0  0.450
  2B: Bower (2), Rahimi (3), Samuel (8).
  SB: Geraldo (4).
  HBP: Pritchard (3).
  GIDP: Vanderhoef (2).
  a-Ran for Dōan in the 2nd.
  b-Entered at C in the 3rd.
  c-Entered at CF in the 4th.
  d-Entered at SS in the 4th.
  e-Entered at C in the 4th.
  f-Entered at C in the 5th.
  g-Entered at C in the 7th.

PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO.
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Shafie      ss ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
Turnbow     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Barten      rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
McCullough  lf ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Galvis      2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Bullard     3b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bautista    cf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Hansen-Dent c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
March       p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Saul        j  ......    3   1   3   1   0   0   1   0   1   1   0  1.000
Faga        j  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   6   9   3   0   0   4   4   9   1   0  0.310
  2B: Shafie (18), McCullough (5), Saul (8).
  GIDP: Shafie (2), Barten 2 (3).


ERDENET SAWMILL PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Sylla (W, 3-2) ......    15   13  48%    4    0    0    2    4    0   53    -
Almonte .............     8    5  19%    3    3    3    1    1    0   27  2-1
Hebert ..............     4    2   7%    2    2    2    1    0    0   10  2-2
Kroeger .............     6    7  26%    0    1    1    0    4    0   25  2-1

PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO. PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
March (L, 1-4) ......    19   14  52%    6    5    5    1    5    0   66    -
Shipley .............     2    0   0%    1    2    2    1    0    0   11  2-1

  Batting order: Panevėžys Bottling Co. (home) batted first; Erdenet Sawmill batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM. Weather: 83°F · Wind cross · Clear · Humid. seed 628249.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 15 José Bautista Turner Bullard (3B) 0–1
B 18 Harris Shafie José Bautista (3B) 0–2
B 18 Harris Shafie Tavierre Saul (2B) 0–3
B 20 Lex McCullough Mackenzie Faga (3B) 0–4
B 20 Tavierre Saul Harris Shafie (3B) 0–5
B 24 Butch Hansen-Dent Lex McCullough (3B) 0–6
T 1 Jerry Samuel Franklin Pritchard (3B) 1–6
T 4 Seita Dōan Frank Porter (3B) 2–6
T 11 Dave Bower Jerry Samuel (3B) 3–6
T 11 Jerry Samuel Franklin Pritchard (3B) 4–6
T 13 Teoscar Castillo Jerry Samuel (3B) 5–6
T 14 Saman Rahimi James Gautcher (3B) 6–6
T 14 Saman Rahimi Endy Bastardo (1B) 7–6
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Sarraf Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 335' · CF 430' · RF 314' · 41' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill Knothole Gates
Erdenet Sawmill — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
335' 430' 314' Wall 41' Franklin Pritchard — single · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 72 ft Frank Porter — single · EV 76 mph · LA -6° · 72 ft Oliver Vanderhoef — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft James Gautcher — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 128 ft Seita Dōan — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 138 ft Endy Bastardo — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -19° · 72 ft Pender Sylla — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +37° · 223 ft Dave Bower — double · EV 92 mph · LA +38° · 328 ft Jerry Samuel — single · EV 76 mph · LA +25° · 179 ft Oliver Vanderhoef — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Teoscar Castillo — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +48° · 230 ft Saman Rahimi — double · EV 92 mph · LA +24° · 255 ft Jerry Samuel — double · EV 92 mph · LA +35° · 319 ft
Panevėžys Bottling Co. — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 6 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
335' 430' 314' Wall 41' Harris Shafie — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 100 ft Tyderick Barten — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 81 ft Júnior Galvis — single · EV 78 mph · LA +19° · 150 ft Turner Bullard — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Butch Hansen-Dent — single · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Tavierre Saul — single · EV 52 mph · LA +19° · 66 ft Gavin March — fly_out · EV 65 mph · LA +35° · 158 ft Lex McCullough — single · EV 73 mph · LA +16° · 115 ft Harris Shafie — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 72 ft Tyderick Barten — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -18° · 72 ft Júnior Galvis — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +11° · 93 ft Turner Bullard — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 122 ft José Bautista — single · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Butch Hansen-Dent — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +6° · 49 ft Tavierre Saul — double · EV 92 mph · LA +36° · 324 ft Lex McCullough — double · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 244 ft Harris Shafie — double · EV 92 mph · LA +39° · 331 ft Tyderick Barten — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -5° · 49 ft Tavierre Saul — single · EV 52 mph · LA +15° · 60 ft Butch Hansen-Dent — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Gavin March — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +54° · 223 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Erdenet Sawmill
28% deserve-to-win  ·  3.5 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +3.5 vs expected
contact: 5.8 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+4.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Saman Rahimi 92 / +24° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Dave Bower 92 / +38° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Jerry Samuel 92 / +35° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Jerry Samuel 76 / +25° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.79
Franklin Pritchard 76 / +8° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Panevėžys Bottling Co.
72% deserve-to-win  ·  5.6 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +0.4 vs expected
contact: 9.2 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+2.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Lex McCullough 92 / +23° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.99
Tavierre Saul 92 / +36° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Harris Shafie 92 / +39° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Butch Hansen-Dent 76 / -1° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
José Bautista 76 / +2° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
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