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Caracas Independence Brewery 23, San Cristóbal Navy 7       2046-05-01 · #1400
at San Cristóbal Bowl
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Caracas                18      5   23   19    1
San Cristóbal           7      0    7   10    0

CARACAS INDEPENDENCE BREWERY
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Calabrese   3b ......    4   3   2   1   0   1   2   1   1   0   0  0.500
Solano      cf ......    5   4   3   0   1   1   3   0   0   0   0  0.600
Almonte     lf ......    4   0   2   2   0   0   3   1   2   0   0  0.500
Encarnación 2b ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Vargas  c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Guimarães   ss ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Najar       c  ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Cruz        1b ......    3   2   3   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Marte       rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Santos      p  ......    3   3   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   1  0.333
Porozo      j  ......    2   4   1   0   0   1   2   2   1   0   0  0.500
Maeda-Silva j  ......    3   2   2   1   0   1   5   2   0   0   0  0.667
Totals                  40  23  19   8   1   5  23   7  10   0   1  0.475
  2B: Calabrese (12), Almonte 2 (18), Encarnación (9), Guimarães (15), Najar (10), Cruz (1), Maeda-Silva (14).
  3B: Solano (2).
  HR: Calabrese (6), off Moretti; Solano (4), off Moretti; Porozo (4), off Geraldo; Santos (2), off Moretti; Maeda-Silva (6), off Ynoa.
  SB: Almonte (5).
  E: Encarnación (1).
  HBP: Cruz (1).
  a-Replaced Encarnación at C in the 7th.

SAN CRISTÓBAL NAVY
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Santos      rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Geraldo     2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Sin         lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Ramón       3b ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Messi       1b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Correia     ss ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Bautista    c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Moretti     p  ......    1   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1  2.000
  a-Yamamot pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  b-Castill c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Feliz       j  ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.500
Encarnación j  ......    3   1   3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Kemppi      j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   7  10   2   0   1   4   4   8   1   1  0.357
  2B: Messi (5), Correia (3).
  HR: Feliz (3), off Santos.
  SB: Castillo (5), Encarnación 3 (8).
  CS: Castillo (4), Feliz (8), Sin (4).
  HBP: Feliz (3).
  GIDP: Kemppi (7).
  a-Ran for Moretti in the 7th.
  b-Entered at C in the 7th.

CARACAS INDEPENDENCE BREWERY PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Santos (W, 3-0) .....    23   18  67%    7    5    4    3    8    1   81    -
Santana (F, 9) ......     9    9  33%    3    2    2    1    0    0   40  2-1

SAN CRISTÓBAL NAVY PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Moretti (L, 0-3) ....     9    1   4%    7    9    6    0    1    3   31    -
Ynoa ................     9    5  19%    4    5    5    2    1    1   28  1-1
Geraldo .............     8    4  15%    4    5    4    0    2    1   26  1-1
Ynoa ................     8    5  19%    4    3    3    0    1    0   32  1-0
Tatís ...............    11   10  37%    0    1    1    4    3    0   47  1-0
Paniagua ............     3    2   7%    0    0    0    1    2    0   15  1-0

  Batting order: San Cristóbal Navy (home) batted second; Caracas Independence Brewery batted first.
  Seconds: CIB o25 (18-0), SCN o25 (7-18).
  First pitch 6:30 PM. Weather: 83°F · Wind out · Overcast. seed 236059.
  Walk-Back runs: off Santos 1, off Moretti 2, off Geraldo 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 0 Jefferson Calabrese Jefferson Calabrese (HR) 1–0
T 0 Gerardo Solano Jefferson Calabrese (3B) 2–0
T 0 Gerardo Solano Gerardo Solano (HR) 3–0
T 1 Fernando Encarnación Gerardo Solano (3B) 4–0
T 2 Bill Cruz Fernando Encarnación (3B) 5–0
T 3 Renato Maeda-Silva Enner Najar (3B) 6–0
T 3 Renato Maeda-Silva Bill Cruz (2B) 7–0
T 3 Renato Maeda-Silva Hernesto Porozo (1B) 8–0
T 3 Renato Maeda-Silva Renato Maeda-Silva (HR) 9–0
T 7 Alisson Guimarães Gerardo Solano (3B) 10–0
T 9 Bill Cruz Fernando Encarnación (2B) 11–0
T 10 Hernesto Porozo Bill Cruz (2B) 12–0
T 10 Hernesto Porozo Hernesto Porozo (HR) 13–0
T 10 Renato Maeda-Silva Hernesto Porozo (3B) 14–0
T 13 Adrián Almonte Rafael De los Santos (1B) 15–0
T 15 Enner Najar Alisson Guimarães (2B) 16–0
T 15 Bill Cruz Enner Najar (2B) 17–0
T 19 Adrián Almonte Hernesto Porozo (3B) 18–0
B 4 Ronald Castillo Vladimir Encarnación (3B) 18–1
B 9 Ketel Feliz Yefri Ramón (3B) 18–2
B 9 Ketel Feliz Enzo Correia (2B) 18–3
B 9 Ketel Feliz Ketel Feliz (HR) 18–4
B 9 Vladimir Encarnación Ketel Feliz (3B) 18–5
B 16 Eulis Bautista Yefri Ramón (3B) 18–6
B 18 Tuomas Kemppi Hiroshi Yamamoto-Silva (3B) 18–7
seconds_first 0 Rafael De los Santos Renato Maeda-Silva (1B) 19–7
seconds_first 0 Rafael De los Santos Rafael De los Santos (HR) 20–7
seconds_first 0 Jefferson Calabrese Rafael De los Santos (3B) 21–7
seconds_first 0 Gerardo Solano Jefferson Calabrese (2B) 22–7
seconds_first 0 Adrián Almonte Gerardo Solano (3B) 23–7
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to San Cristóbal Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 290' · CF 430' · RF 331' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Left).
Caracas Independence Brewery — Batted Balls
29 BIP· 5 1B · 9 XBH · 5 HR
290' 430' 331' Jefferson Calabrese — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +37° · 472 ft Gerardo Solano — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +26° · 426 ft Fernando Encarnación — double · EV 95 mph · LA +37° · 348 ft Enner Najar — single · EV 88 mph · LA +16° · 171 ft Bill Cruz — single · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 266 ft Renato Maeda-Silva — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +29° · 417 ft Rafael De los Santos — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +1° · 95 ft Alisson Guimarães — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +28° · 303 ft Hernesto Porozo — hr · EV 112 mph · LA +34° · 471 ft Jefferson Calabrese — line_out · EV 113 mph · LA +16° · 265 ft Gerardo Solano — single · EV 91 mph · LA +9° · 98 ft Fernando Encarnación — single · EV 88 mph · LA +17° · 175 ft Enner Najar — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +36° · 248 ft Bill Cruz — double · EV 100 mph · LA +43° · 399 ft Renato Maeda-Silva — double · EV 92 mph · LA +32° · 303 ft Rafael De los Santos — fielders_choice · EV 94 mph · LA -10° · 89 ft Alisson Guimarães — double · EV 92 mph · LA +40° · 334 ft Gerardo Solano — line_out · EV 91 mph · LA +10° · 117 ft Adrián Almonte — double · EV 93 mph · LA +28° · 283 ft Fernando Encarnación — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +54° · 344 ft Enner Najar — double · EV 107 mph · LA +20° · 290 ft Bill Cruz — single · EV 100 mph · LA +32° · 361 ft Renato Maeda-Silva — fielders_choice · EV 96 mph · LA +4° · 91 ft Rafael De los Santos — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +32° · 356 ft Gerardo Solano — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +26° · 247 ft Vladimir Marte — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +48° · 254 ft Jefferson Calabrese — double · EV 100 mph · LA +49° · 396 ft Adrián Almonte — double · EV 111 mph · LA +18° · 294 ft Gerardo Solano — triple · EV 119 mph · LA +17° · 317 ft
San Cristóbal Navy — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 7 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
290' 430' 331' Vladimir Encarnación — single · EV 60 mph · LA +6° · 57 ft Tuomas Kemppi — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +27° · 187 ft Yefri Ramón — single · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 210 ft Élan De los Santos — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +20° · 70 ft Enzo Correia — double · EV 92 mph · LA +28° · 278 ft Michel Moretti — single · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Michel Moretti — single · EV 76 mph · LA -17° · 72 ft Ketel Feliz — hr · EV 92 mph · LA +43° · 338 ft Vladimir Encarnación — single · EV 78 mph · LA +9° · 77 ft Tuomas Kemppi — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +34° · 213 ft Sadiel Geraldo — single · EV 87 mph · LA +17° · 165 ft Ronald Castillo — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +40° · 228 ft Yefri Ramón — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft Rodolfo Messi — double · EV 97 mph · LA +49° · 376 ft Vladimir Encarnación — single · EV 83 mph · LA +22° · 192 ft Tuomas Kemppi — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +2° · 49 ft Sadiel Geraldo — error · EV 56 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Ronald Castillo — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Caracas Independence Brewery
96% deserve-to-win  ·  22.7 expected runs
actual 23 runs  ·  +0.3 vs expected
contact: 39.5 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 44.0 (+4.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rafael De los Santos 100 / +32° Oppo Home Run 1.2 → 4 +2.83
Renato Maeda-Silva 111 / +29° Center Home Run 2.3 → 4 +1.66
Jefferson Calabrese 113 / +16° Oppo Out 1.5 → 0 -1.52
Gerardo Solano 119 / +17° Oppo Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.27
Renato Maeda-Silva 92 / +32° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
San Cristóbal Navy
4% deserve-to-win  ·  4.4 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +2.6 vs expected
contact: 8.5 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (+6.5 on contact)
running: 4 SB · 3 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ketel Feliz 92 / +43° Pull Home Run 1.2 → 4 +2.78
Rodolfo Messi 97 / +49° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.22
Enzo Correia 92 / +28° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Vladimir Encarnación 60 / +6° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.85
Michel Moretti 76 / -17° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
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