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BHP Wolves 14, Sydney Border Force 8                        2046-05-02 · #1433
at Gasset Ground
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Sydney                  7      1    8    9    1
Brisbane               14      0   14   15    0

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Rukavytsya  2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Pledger     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Percival    lf ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.500
Crowe       cf ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Rowles      rf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Nelsen      3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Blundell    1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Rennie      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Nayler  c  ......    4   1   2   1   1   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.500
Pledger     j  ......    3   3   1   0   0   1   2   0   2   0   0  0.333
Hunt        j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Totals                  34   8   9   2   1   1   6   2  17   0   0  0.265
  2B: Nayler (1), Percival (4).
  3B: Nayler (1).
  HR: Pledger (2), off King.
  SB: Hunt (7), Nayler (3), Rowles (4).
  E: Pledger (1).
  HBP: Pledger (2).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

BHP WOLVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Maley       1b ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.667
Calhoun     lf ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Blicavs     2b ......    4   3   2   0   0   1   4   0   0   0   0  0.500
Vukovic     ss ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   2   1   0   0  0.500
Henry       c  ......    2   2   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  1.000
Boyens      cf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Wilkinson   3b ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0  0.667
Gliddon     rf ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.250
King        p  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Neill       j  ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Hassett     j  ......    4   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   1   0  0.500
Totals                  35  14  15   5   0   1  12   7   6   2   0  0.429
  2B: Maley (19), Calhoun (22), Vukovic (10), Henry (8), Hassett (10).
  HR: Blicavs (6), off Goulding.
  SB: Vukovic 2 (4).
  HBP: Wilkinson (4).
  GIDP: Calhoun (1).


SYDNEY BORDER FORCE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Rennie ..............    15   10  37%    7    3    3    0    4    0   53    -
Henry ...............    12    6  22%    4    4    2    5    0    0   43  1-1
Goulding (L, 0-2) ...     8    5  19%    3    6    5    1    2    1   29  3-3
García ..............     8    6  22%    1    1    1    1    0    0   27  1-0

BHP WOLVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
King (W, 4-1) .......    29   22  81%    7    7    7    2   14    1   98    -
Motum (F, 12) .......     7    5  19%    1    1    1    0    3    0   36  1-1

  Batting order: BHP Wolves (home) batted first; Sydney Border Force batted second.
  Seconds: SBF o24 (7-14), BW o24 (14-0).
  First pitch 2:10 PM VLAT. Weather: 99°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 747932.
  Walk-Back runs: off Goulding 1, off Motum 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 4 Nikita Gliddon Damien Maley (3B) 0–1
B 5 Pita Hassett Ivan Wilkinson (3B) 0–2
B 6 Nikita King Nikita Gliddon (3B) 0–3
B 7 Damien Maley Danny Neill (3B) 0–4
B 12 Nikita Gliddon Lindsay Henry (3B) 0–5
B 13 Nikita King Mihaka Boyens (3B) 0–6
B 13 Damien Maley Nikita Gliddon (3B) 0–7
B 14 Joshua Blicavs Danny Neill (3B) 0–8
B 14 Joshua Blicavs Nikita King (2B) 0–9
B 14 Joshua Blicavs Damien Maley (1B) 0–10
B 14 Joshua Blicavs Joshua Blicavs (HR) 0–11
B 14 Lindsay Henry Joshua Blicavs (3B) 0–12
B 17 Danny Neill Lindsay Henry (3B) 0–13
B 23 Cam Vukovic Joshua Blicavs (3B) 0–14
T 3 Richard Hunt Mika Pledger (3B) 1–14
T 6 Ross Rennie Richard Hunt (3B) 2–14
T 9 Cam Nayler Rhyan Rowles (3B) 3–14
T 9 Mika Pledger Cam Nayler (3B) 4–14
T 19 Mika Pledger Hoani Percival (1B) 5–14
T 19 Mika Pledger Mika Pledger (HR) 6–14
T 19 Doug Crowe Mika Pledger (3B) 7–14
seconds_second 1 Cam Nayler Hoani Percival (2B) 8–14
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Gasset Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 338' · CF 393' · RF 333' · 10' wall). Balanced.
Flag Pole in Play
Sydney Border Force — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
338' 393' 333' Doug Crowe — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA -6° · 85 ft Richard Hunt — single · EV 86 mph · LA +12° · 124 ft Ross Rennie — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -9° · 84 ft Cam Nayler — double · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 149 ft Doug Crowe — single · EV 84 mph · LA -9° · 80 ft Richard Hunt — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -0° · 87 ft Rhyan Rowles — fly_out · EV 73 mph · LA +43° · 215 ft Mika Pledger — hr · EV 98 mph · LA +43° · 381 ft Hoani Percival — single · EV 85 mph · LA -7° · 80 ft Doug Crowe — single · EV 105 mph · LA +5° · 99 ft Moises Rukavytsya — error · EV 78 mph · LA +18° · 139 ft Hoani Percival — double · EV 107 mph · LA +17° · 254 ft Cam Nayler — triple · EV 96 mph · LA +10° · 129 ft Doug Crowe — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 64 ft
BHP Wolves — Batted Balls
29 BIP· 8 1B · 5 XBH · 1 HR
338' 393' 333' Damien Maley — single · EV 78 mph · LA +21° · 161 ft Fred Calhoun — double · EV 94 mph · LA +31° · 314 ft Joshua Blicavs — fielders_choice · EV 53 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Lindsay Henry — single · EV 93 mph · LA +8° · 88 ft Mihaka Boyens — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 167 ft Nikita Gliddon — fielders_choice · EV 56 mph · LA -7° · 53 ft Danny Neill — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 127 ft Pita Hassett — single · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Nikita King — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +21° · 226 ft Ivan Wilkinson — error · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 71 ft Ivan Wilkinson — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +26° · 268 ft Damien Maley — double · EV 93 mph · LA +22° · 234 ft Fred Calhoun — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Joshua Blicavs — single · EV 84 mph · LA +17° · 159 ft Nikita Gliddon — single · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 221 ft Danny Neill — error · EV 94 mph · LA +20° · 225 ft Pita Hassett — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +26° · 213 ft Lindsay Henry — double · EV 92 mph · LA +50° · 334 ft Mihaka Boyens — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 92 ft Ivan Wilkinson — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +31° · 297 ft Nikita King — line_out · EV 87 mph · LA +11° · 110 ft Cam Vukovic — double · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 213 ft Joshua Blicavs — hr · EV 98 mph · LA +40° · 378 ft Pita Hassett — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +20° · 163 ft Damien Maley — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +30° · 227 ft Ivan Wilkinson — single · EV 74 mph · LA +22° · 153 ft Fred Calhoun — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +44° · 272 ft Joshua Blicavs — fielders_choice · EV 93 mph · LA -3° · 88 ft Pita Hassett — double · EV 99 mph · LA +22° · 268 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Sydney Border Force
10% deserve-to-win  ·  5.8 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +2.2 vs expected
contact: 10.0 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (+5.0 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 0 CS (+0.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mika Pledger 98 / +43° Pull Home Run 1.9 → 4 +2.05
Cam Nayler 96 / +10° Pull Triple 1.2 → 3 +1.82
Cam Nayler 92 / +13° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Doug Crowe 84 / -9° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.64
Hoani Percival 85 / -7° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.64
BHP Wolves
90% deserve-to-win  ·  16.9 expected runs
actual 14 runs  ·  -2.9 vs expected
contact: 19.7 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 23.0 (+3.3 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Joshua Blicavs 98 / +40° Center Home Run 1.6 → 4 +2.44
Lindsay Henry 92 / +50° Oppo Double 0.4 → 2 +1.58
Fred Calhoun 94 / +31° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Nikita King 92 / +21° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.00
Damien Maley 93 / +22° Oppo Double 1.0 → 2 +1.00
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