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Maturín Wolves 9, Panevėžys Bottling Co. 8                  2046-05-02 · #1439
at Sarraf Park
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                        1    R    H    E
Maturín                 9    9    8    0
Panevėžys               8    8   13    0

MATURÍN WOLVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Payton      p  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.500
Bolder      1b ......    3   2   2   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.667
Keeley      3b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Chien       2b ......    3   1   2   2   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.667
Oviedo      lf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gilgeous-Al rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Golden      cf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Chae        ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
  a-Marte   c  ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Elarms-Orr  j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  18   9   8   2   0   0   9   3   5   0   2  0.444
  2B: Chien 2 (7).
  HBP: Oviedo (1).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO.
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Shafie      ss ......    4   1   2   0   0   1   3   0   3   1   0  0.500
Cunha       lf ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Turnbow     c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Galvis      2b ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Barten      rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Eakin       1b ......    3   0   1   0   1   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Pittman     cf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Hansen-Dent 3b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Rojas       p  ......    2   1   2   0   1   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Saul        j  ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
Faga        j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  34   8  13   1   2   2   8   1  14   1   0  0.382
  2B: Saul (9).
  3B: Eakin (1), Rojas (1).
  HR: Shafie (3), off Cochell; Galvis (2), off Payton.


MATURÍN WOLVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Payton (W, 7-0) .....    31   25  93%   10    6    5    1   14    1  107    -
Cochell .............     4    2   7%    2    2    2    0    1    1   14  1-1

PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO. PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Rojas (L, 1-1) ......     8    4  15%    4    5    5    1    1    0   21    -
Rojas ...............    14   10  37%    4    4    4    2    4    0   60  1-1

  Batting order: Panevėžys Bottling Co. (home) batted first; Maturín Wolves batted second.
  First pitch 5:45 PM. Weather: 82°F · Wind out · Clear · Humid. seed 676108.
  Walk-Back runs: off Payton 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 5 Kent Eakin Tavierre Saul (1B) 0–1
B 18 Harris Shafie Tavierre Saul (3B) 0–2
B 21 Júnior Galvis Júnior Galvis (HR) 0–3
B 21 Mackenzie Faga Júnior Galvis (3B) 0–4
B 25 Hanley Rojas Matthew Pittman (3B) 0–5
B 25 Hanley Rojas Butch Hansen-Dent (1B) 0–6
B 25 Harris Shafie Hanley Rojas (3B) 0–7
B 25 Harris Shafie Harris Shafie (HR) 0–8
T 2 Sheng-feng Chien Rand Bolder (3B) 1–8
T 2 Sheng-feng Chien Brian Keeley (2B) 2–8
T 3 Tae-young Chae Sheng-feng Chien (3B) 3–8
T 4 Rand Bolder Warren Oviedo (3B) 4–8
T 4 Rand Bolder Angel Golden (2B) 5–8
T 9 Bret Gilgeous-Alexander Rand Bolder (3B) 6–8
T 9 Bret Gilgeous-Alexander Ronny Marte (2B) 7–8
T 14 Brylan Payton Ronny Marte (2B) 8–8
T 14 Sheng-feng Chien Brylan Payton (1B) 9–8
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Sarraf Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 335' · CF 430' · RF 314' · 41' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill Knothole Gates
Maturín Wolves — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 6 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
335' 430' 314' Wall 41' Rand Bolder — single · EV 95 mph · LA +4° · 90 ft Brian Keeley — single · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 217 ft Sheng-feng Chien — double · EV 108 mph · LA +17° · 265 ft Rand Bolder — single · EV 107 mph · LA +18° · 266 ft Brian Keeley — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -9° · 75 ft Bret Gilgeous-Alexander — single · EV 88 mph · LA +2° · 84 ft Ronny Marte — single · EV 95 mph · LA +23° · 260 ft Brylan Payton — single · EV 100 mph · LA -1° · 95 ft Rand Bolder — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +56° · 338 ft Brian Keeley — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft Sheng-feng Chien — double · EV 96 mph · LA +44° · 370 ft
Panevėžys Bottling Co. — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 7 1B · 3 XBH · 2 HR
335' 430' 314' Wall 41' Diego Turnbow — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +40° · 306 ft Tavierre Saul — single · EV 87 mph · LA +21° · 200 ft Kent Eakin — triple · EV 103 mph · LA +10° · 147 ft Matthew Pittman — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +13° · 127 ft Júnior Galvis — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Tavierre Saul — double · EV 88 mph · LA +14° · 148 ft Mackenzie Faga — single · EV 77 mph · LA -1° · 73 ft Butch Hansen-Dent — single · EV 76 mph · LA -0° · 73 ft Hanley Rojas — triple · EV 108 mph · LA +25° · 359 ft Harris Shafie — single · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 171 ft Nicholas Cunha — infield_single · EV 62 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Diego Turnbow — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +3° · 87 ft Júnior Galvis — hr · EV 103 mph · LA +37° · 409 ft Tavierre Saul — line_out · EV 86 mph · LA +19° · 188 ft Kent Eakin — fielders_choice · EV 90 mph · LA -0° · 85 ft Matthew Pittman — single · EV 67 mph · LA +25° · 138 ft Harris Shafie — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +40° · 480 ft Nicholas Cunha — single · EV 84 mph · LA +21° · 187 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Maturín Wolves
48% deserve-to-win  ·  7.3 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  +1.7 vs expected
contact: 10.9 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (-0.9 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rand Bolder 95 / +56° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Bret Gilgeous-Alexander 88 / +2° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
Rand Bolder 107 / +18° Pull Single 1.6 → 1 -0.57
Brian Keeley 100 / +4° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.57
Brian Keeley 100 / +16° Pull Single 1.5 → 1 -0.54
Panevėžys Bottling Co.
52% deserve-to-win  ·  7.6 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +0.4 vs expected
contact: 17.1 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 23.0 (+5.9 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Júnior Galvis 103 / +37° Pull Home Run 2.1 → 4 +1.91
Kent Eakin 103 / +10° Oppo Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.74
Tavierre Saul 88 / +14° Center Double 0.6 → 2 +1.38
Diego Turnbow 88 / +40° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Matthew Pittman 67 / +25° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.82
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