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Kitay-Torg Leopards 7, Casablanca Elk 5                     2046-05-02 · #1442
at Tower Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Casablanca              5    5    5    0
Kitay-Torg              7    7    6    1

CASABLANCA ELK
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Strydom     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mezui       lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Kassim      1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Maritz  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Tekle       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Chávez  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Cherif  ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Moukoko ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Aulakh  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1   .000
  f-Benseba ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Haukong ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Ratsimb pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  i-Taarabt 3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  j-Ousou   2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  k-Mthembu pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Demissie    j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Russo       j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Mpasi       j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  25   5   5   0   0   0   4   8   7   0   1  0.200
  CS: Demissie (6), Ratsimbazafy (1).
  GIDP: Cherif (1), Taarabt 2 (2).
  a-Ran for Kassim in the 2nd.
  b-Ran for Tekle in the 5th.
  c-Batted in the 2nd.
  d-Struck out in the 2nd.
  e-Grounded out in the 2nd.
  f-Walked in the 3rd.
  g-Batted in the 3rd.
  h-Ran for Bensebaini in the 3rd.
  i-Replaced Russo at 3B in the 5th.
  j-Replaced Aulakh at 2B in the 6th.
  k-Ran for Chávez in the 6th.

KITAY-TORG LEOPARDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Campbell    3b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Jacksonov   ss ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Shuler      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Montero     p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Amente      2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cheng       rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Diomede     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Karatsev    c  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Jonesov c  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Maggs       j  ......    2   3   2   0   0   2   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Harrisov    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Schlotterbe j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  14   7   6   2   0   2   7   0   3   0   0  0.429
  2B: Jacksonov (10), Jonesov (3).
  HR: Maggs 2 (3), off Tekle, Martínez.
  E: Jacksonov (5).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

CASABLANCA ELK PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Tekle ...............     5    3  11%    2    2    1    0    1    1   25    -
Stalder .............     6    4  15%    2    2    2    0    1    0   20  1-1
Martínez (L, 0-1) ...     3    1   4%    2    3    3    0    1    1   10  1-1

KITAY-TORG LEOPARDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Montero (W, 2-0) ....    28   21  78%    5    5    2    6    7    0   85    -
Jacksonov ...........     5    6  22%    0    0    0    2    0    0   17  2-0

  Batting order: Kitay-Torg Leopards (home) batted second; Casablanca Elk batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM YAKT. Weather: 76°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 124219.
  Walk-Back runs: off Tekle 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 5 Reyansh Aulakh Reeza Maritz (3B) 1–0
T 7 Alfred Haukongo Leonardo Russo (3B) 2–0
T 8 Meles Tekle Hamari Mpasi (3B) 3–0
T 17 Wynand Strydom Élie Ratsimbazafy (2B) 4–0
T 21 Lemma Demissie Sikhumbuzo Mthembu (2B) 5–0
B 1 Traylon Maggs Traylon Maggs (HR) 5–1
B 3 Jarvis Jonesov Traylon Maggs (3B) 5–2
B 5 Donovan Diomede Jarvis Jonesov (3B) 5–3
B 7 Demarai Jacksonov Stepan Karatsev (1B) 5–4
B 7 Justice Campbell Demarai Jacksonov (2B) 5–5
B 8 Traylon Maggs Justice Campbell (1B) 5–6
B 8 Traylon Maggs Traylon Maggs (HR) 5–7
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Tower Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 321' · CF 410' · RF 286' · 10' wall). Short Porch (Right).
Crescent Grandstand The Porch
Casablanca Elk — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
321' 410' 286' Wynand Strydom — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +1° · 73 ft Haile Kassim — single · EV 81 mph · LA -21° · 77 ft Leonardo Russo — single · EV 80 mph · LA +15° · 126 ft Alfred Haukongo — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +6° · 87 ft Meles Tekle — error · EV 61 mph · LA +8° · 58 ft Hamari Mpasi — infield_single · EV 67 mph · LA -18° · 64 ft Nadir Taarabt — double_play · EV 60 mph · LA -17° · 57 ft Salem Ousou — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 166 ft Élie Ratsimbazafy — single · EV 92 mph · LA +7° · 87 ft Massinissa Cherif — double_play · EV 72 mph · LA -7° · 68 ft Leonardo Russo — fly_out · EV 63 mph · LA +30° · 137 ft Alfred Haukongo — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -16° · 49 ft Lemma Demissie — single · EV 92 mph · LA +8° · 99 ft Nadir Taarabt — double_play · EV 78 mph · LA -5° · 74 ft Wynand Strydom — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA +6° · 69 ft Adeola Mezui — ground_out · EV 55 mph · LA -8° · 52 ft Leonardo Russo — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -12° · 74 ft
Kitay-Torg Leopards — Batted Balls
8 BIP· 2 1B · 2 XBH · 2 HR
321' 410' 286' Traylon Maggs — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +45° · 480 ft Jarvis Jonesov — double · EV 115 mph · LA +13° · 237 ft Mohammed Amente — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -2° · 80 ft Donovan Diomede — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 335 ft Stepan Karatsev — single · EV 100 mph · LA -5° · 95 ft Demarai Jacksonov — double · EV 119 mph · LA +14° · 257 ft Justice Campbell — single · EV 88 mph · LA +11° · 112 ft Traylon Maggs — hr · EV 113 mph · LA +33° · 467 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Casablanca Elk
29% deserve-to-win  ·  3.3 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +1.7 vs expected
contact: 5.5 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-0.5 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Hamari Mpasi 67 / -18° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.85
Haile Kassim 81 / -21° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.65
Salem Ousou 76 / +23° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.60
Élie Ratsimbazafy 92 / +7° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.57
Leonardo Russo 80 / +15° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
Kitay-Torg Leopards
71% deserve-to-win  ·  5.1 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +1.9 vs expected
contact: 13.9 est bases + 0 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (+0.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Donovan Diomede 100 / +28° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.43
Jarvis Jonesov 115 / +13° Center Double 1.5 → 2 +0.48
Demarai Jacksonov 119 / +14° Center Double 1.5 → 2 +0.48
Stepan Karatsev 100 / -5° Center Single 0.6 → 1 +0.42
Mohammed Amente 84 / -2° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.36
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