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Tynda Police 8, Thessaloniki Police 7                       2046-05-02 · #1441
at Iron Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Tynda                   8    8    7    1
Thessaloniki            7    7    9    0

TYNDA POLICE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cherkasov   ss ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Berger      c  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Keramidas   3b ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Chesnokov   p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
Dōan        lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ding        1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
LaFleurov   cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Matviye lf ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Chernov pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  c-Kukushk pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-Derepas ss ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Nelson      j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  0.500
Aoki        j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  14   8   7   1   0   1   7   2   2   0   1  0.500
  2B: Matviyenko (5).
  HR: Nelson (1), off Coronado.
  E: Kukushkin (2).
  HBP: Chesnokov (1).
  a-Entered at LF in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Matviyenko in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Derepasko in the 4th.
  d-Entered at SS in the 7th.

THESSALONIKI POLICE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Levering    ss ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.667
Stanton     c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Liao        rf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Rainey      cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Liz         1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Marte   pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cure        lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Wiggins     2b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Gourrie ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Alarcón     3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Coronado    p  ......    2   2   2   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Santiago    j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Suero       j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Watley      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31   7   9   1   0   0   6   5   9   0   0  0.290
  2B: Coronado (1).
  SB: Levering 2 (8), Liz (1).
  CS: Levering (5).
  GIDP: Alarcón (1).
  a-Ran for Liz in the 2nd.
  b-Batted for Wiggins in the 6th.

TYNDA POLICE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Chesnokov ...........    11    8  30%    3    2    2    2    4    0   39    -
Kobori (W, 1-0) .....    13    9  33%    2    3    1    3    2    0   50  1-1
McFarlandov .........     9    7  26%    4    2    2    0    2    0   42  2-1
Biryukov ............     3    3  11%    0    0    0    0    1    0    7  2-0

THESSALONIKI POLICE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Coronado (L, 4-2) ...    17   10  37%    7    8    8    2    2    1   49    -

  Batting order: Thessaloniki Police (home) batted first; Tynda Police batted second.
  First pitch 7:10 PM. Weather: 86°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 662512.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 7 Russell Watley Dagoberto Marte (3B) 0–1
B 7 Russell Watley Nicholas Santiago (2B) 0–2
B 9 Roger Stanton Joe Wiggins (3B) 0–3
B 16 Robinson Coronado Robinson Coronado (3B) 0–4
B 16 Jacob Levering Hanley Suero (3B) 0–5
B 21 Tristan Cure Robinson Coronado (3B) 0–6
B 24 Robinson Coronado Roger Stanton (3B) 0–7
T 2 Anatoli Cherkasov Panagiotis Keramidas (3B) 1–7
T 3 Shozo Aoki Anatoli Cherkasov (2B) 2–7
T 6 Egan LaFleurov Evgueni Derepasko (3B) 3–7
T 7 Jonathan Berger Aleksandr Chernov (3B) 4–7
T 7 Jonathan Berger Panagiotis Keramidas (2B) 5–7
T 10 Josiah Nelson Jonathan Berger (2B) 6–7
T 10 Josiah Nelson Roman Kukushkin (1B) 7–7
T 10 Josiah Nelson Josiah Nelson (HR) 8–7
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Iron Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 370' · CF 477' · RF 365' · 11' wall). Cavernous.
Crow's Nest Death Valley The Crater
Tynda Police — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
370' 477' 365' Panagiotis Keramidas — single · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 87 ft Jonathan Berger — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft Anatoli Cherkasov — single · EV 87 mph · LA +0° · 82 ft Josiah Nelson — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 194 ft Shozo Aoki — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 109 ft Evgueni Derepasko — single · EV 95 mph · LA +3° · 91 ft Yoshihito Dōan — line_out · EV 75 mph · LA +18° · 130 ft Chenxi Ding — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +4° · 74 ft Denys Matviyenko — double · EV 106 mph · LA +22° · 308 ft Jonathan Berger — single · EV 86 mph · LA -4° · 81 ft Yoshihito Dōan — line_out · EV 81 mph · LA +13° · 117 ft Josiah Nelson — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +42° · 480 ft
Thessaloniki Police — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 8 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
370' 477' 365' Roger Stanton — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +31° · 314 ft Chia-hong Liao — single · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Junior Liz — single · EV 83 mph · LA -3° · 79 ft Nicholas Santiago — single · EV 98 mph · LA +12° · 155 ft Russell Watley — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA +4° · 57 ft Robinson Coronado — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 95 ft Jacob Levering — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +28° · 245 ft Dagoberto Marte — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +38° · 275 ft Chia-hong Liao — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 219 ft Leonys Alarcón — error · EV 72 mph · LA +15° · 100 ft Jacob Levering — single · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 243 ft Roger Stanton — single · EV 84 mph · LA +10° · 99 ft Robinson Coronado — double · EV 96 mph · LA +44° · 364 ft Chia-hong Liao — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA +2° · 58 ft Tristan Cure — single · EV 84 mph · LA +14° · 131 ft Leonys Alarcón — double_play · EV 89 mph · LA -8° · 85 ft Jacob Levering — single · EV 83 mph · LA +13° · 118 ft Roger Stanton — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +25° · 272 ft Chia-hong Liao — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA -5° · 52 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Tynda Police
52% deserve-to-win  ·  7.6 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +0.4 vs expected
contact: 10.7 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (+0.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Josiah Nelson 100 / +14° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.26
Jonathan Berger 86 / -4° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.64
Anatoli Cherkasov 87 / +0° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Yoshihito Dōan 81 / +13° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Yoshihito Dōan 75 / +18° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.60
Thessaloniki Police
48% deserve-to-win  ·  7.3 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  -0.3 vs expected
contact: 12.0 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (-2.0 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 1 CS (-0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Chia-hong Liao 92 / +20° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.00
Roger Stanton 94 / +31° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.79
Roger Stanton 95 / +25° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.79
Chia-hong Liao 76 / -1° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Junior Liz 83 / -3° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.64
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