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Itelka Beysbol'nyy Klub 3, Erdenet Sawmill 1                 2046-04-22 · #965
at Crescent Genia Park
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                        1    R    H    E
Erdenet                 1    1    2    0
Itelka                  3    3    4    0

ERDENET SAWMILL
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Liz         cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Butt        lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Dōan        c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mooy        rf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Rashid      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Nagy    ph ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Rahimi  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Desfor  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Pauling ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  e-Castill cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Pritchard   j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Samuel      j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Porter      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   1   2   1   0   0   1   2  17   0   0  0.071
  2B: Mooy (5).
  a-Batted in the 2nd.
  b-Batted for Samuel in the 3rd.
  c-Batted in the 4th.
  d-Batted in the 4th.
  e-Entered at CF in the 6th.

ITELKA BEYSBOL'NYY KLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kukushkin   3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.000
Santana     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Vlasov      cf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Muzaev      1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Low         c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Iakovlev    p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Henry   ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Samsono c  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Zheng   rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Chalova     j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Fitzgibbon  j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Difo        j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  14   3   4   0   0   0   3   3   3   0   1  0.286
  SB: Fitzgibbon (2).
  CS: Chalova (1).
  a-Entered at SS in the 7th.
  b-Entered at C in the 8th.
  c-Entered at RF in the 9th.

ERDENET SAWMILL PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Tejada (L, 1-1) .....    15   14  52%    3    3    3    3    3    0   57    -

ITELKA BEYSBOL'NYY KLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Iakovlev (W, 2-0) ...    31   27 100%    2    1    1    2   18    0  114    -

  Batting order: Itelka Beysbol'nyy Klub (home) batted second; Erdenet Sawmill batted first.
  First pitch 7:05 PM PETT. Weather: 45°F · Wind calm · Clear · Dry. seed 465930.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 18 Jason Mooy David Nagy (1B) 1–0
B 5 Teymuraz Muzaev Gleb Vlasov (2B) 1–1
B 14 Gleb Vlasov Taras Samsonova (3B) 1–2
B 14 Gleb Vlasov Geraldo Difo (2B) 1–3
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Crescent Genia Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 330' · CF 433' · RF 307' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Right).
Flag Pole in Play Knothole Gates
Erdenet Sawmill — Batted Balls
8 BIP· 1 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
330' 433' 307' Seita Dōan — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 106 ft Eoin Rashid — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 140 ft Franklin Pritchard — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA -10° · 68 ft Jason Mooy — double · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 141 ft Brian Pauling — single · EV 97 mph · LA +24° · 277 ft David Nagy — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +14° · 60 ft Jerry Samuel — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +16° · 130 ft Dries Butt — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +33° · 340 ft
Itelka Beysbol'nyy Klub — Batted Balls
7 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
330' 433' 307' Teymuraz Muzaev — single · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 73 ft Bastien Henry — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA -16° · 93 ft Taras Samsonova — fielders_choice · EV 83 mph · LA -6° · 79 ft Sergei Kukushkin — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA -4° · 72 ft Gleb Vlasov — single · EV 100 mph · LA -10° · 95 ft Geraldo Difo — single · EV 100 mph · LA -24° · 95 ft Semyon Chalova — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -26° · 79 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Erdenet Sawmill
75% deserve-to-win  ·  2.4 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -1.4 vs expected
contact: 6.3 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-3.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Dries Butt 96 / +33° Oppo Out 1.6 → 0 -1.56
Jason Mooy 92 / +12° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Eoin Rashid 92 / +12° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
Seita Dōan 76 / +14° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.50
Jerry Samuel 79 / +16° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.50
Itelka Beysbol'nyy Klub
25% deserve-to-win  ·  1.4 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +1.6 vs expected
contact: 2.8 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (+0.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Teymuraz Muzaev 76 / -10° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Geraldo Difo 100 / -24° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.48
Bastien Henry 98 / -16° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.45
Gleb Vlasov 100 / -10° Oppo Single 0.6 → 1 +0.42
Taras Samsonova 83 / -6° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.36
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