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Melbourne Baseball Club 12, Auckland Tailors 7              2046-05-01 · #1373
at Sabra Grounds
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Melbourne              10      2   12   15    0
Auckland                3      4    7   11    0

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Balko       1b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Stott   pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Baccus      cf ......    2   1   2   1   0   1   3   1   0   0   0  1.000
Brockie     2b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Frank       rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  b-Longley pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Buchanon    lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Nwachukwu   3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Bogaert pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Milligan    c  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Head        p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Sainsbu pr ......    2   3   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Lopez   ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Irvine  pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
King        j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Gurriel     j  ......    3   1   3   1   0   0   5   1   0   1   0  1.000
Talbot      j  ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  34  12  15   6   0   1  11   5  10   1   0  0.441
  2B: Balko (5), Baccus (6), Gurriel (12), Talbot (5), Lopez (5), Sainsbury (2).
  HR: Baccus (2), off Hernandez.
  SB: Talbot (4).
  CS: Stott (3), Baccus (2).
  a-Ran for Balko in the 1st.
  b-Ran for Frank in the 7th.
  c-Ran for Nwachukwu in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Head in the 3rd.
  e-Doubled in the 3rd.
  f-Ran for Lopez in the 3rd.

AUCKLAND TAILORS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Vicelich    1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Petratos    2b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Brock       cf ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
Quiñones    rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Young       lf ......    4   1   2   2   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.500
White       3b ......    4   2   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Rangi       c  ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   3   0   0  0.250
Hernandez   p  ......    3   2   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.667
  a-Brockie c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Reath       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   1  0.000
Rivera      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32   7  11   3   0   1   7   2  12   0   2  0.344
  2B: Petratos (9), Young 2 (9).
  HR: Rangi (2), off Head.
  SB: Brock (2), Reath (5).
  CS: Vicelich (3).
  GIDP: White (2), Rivera (2).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Head ................    12    9  33%    5    3    2    0    2    1   33    -
Olla ................     7    4  15%    4    3    3    0    3    0   17    -
Brown (W, 2-2) ......    13   13  48%    1    0    0    2    6    0   52  1-0
Davidson ............     2    1   4%    1    1    1    0    1    0    5  1-1

AUCKLAND TAILORS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hernandez (L, 0-2) ..    10    6  22%    5    4    4    0    1    1   28    -
Hall ................    10    5  19%    5    4    4    2    2    0   34    -
Chance ..............    11    7  26%    4    4    4    1    5    0   41  1-1
Rodriguez ...........     8    9  33%    1    0    0    2    2    0   33  1-0

  Batting order: Auckland Tailors (home) batted second; Melbourne Baseball Club batted first.
  Seconds: MBC o24 (10-0), AT o25 (3-10).
  First pitch 5:45 PM PETT. Weather: 69°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 388939.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 0 Cameron Baccus Ivan Stott (2B) 1–0
T 0 Cameron Baccus Cameron Baccus (HR) 2–0
T 8 Josh Lopez Dean Milligan (1B) 3–0
T 8 Yunieski Gurriel Brad Irvine (3B) 4–0
T 8 Yunieski Gurriel Harry Sainsbury (2B) 5–0
T 8 Yunieski Gurriel Pat King (2B) 6–0
T 10 Cameron Baccus Yunieski Gurriel (1B) 7–0
T 15 Harry Sainsbury Iain Brockie (3B) 8–0
T 15 Harry Sainsbury Didi Bogaerts (3B) 9–0
T 15 Ivan Stott Harry Sainsbury (2B) 10–0
B 10 Alex Young Cam Hernandez (3B) 10–1
B 10 Alex Young Martin White (1B) 10–2
B 12 Joe Brock Alex Young (3B) 10–3
seconds_first 2 Yunieski Gurriel Hilton Talbot (3B) 11–3
seconds_first 2 Yunieski Gurriel Harry Sainsbury (2B) 12–3
seconds_second 1 Shea Rangi Cam Hernandez (1B) 12–4
seconds_second 1 Shea Rangi Shea Rangi (HR) 12–5
seconds_second 1 Martin White Shea Rangi (3B) 12–6
seconds_second 1 Alex Young Martin White (1B) 12–7
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Sabra Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 462' · RF 357' · 11' wall). Cavernous.
Melbourne Baseball Club — Batted Balls
25 BIP· 7 1B · 6 XBH · 1 HR
341' 462' 357' Mario Balko — double · EV 119 mph · LA +20° · 367 ft Cameron Baccus — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +38° · 480 ft Kingi Frank — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +6° · 93 ft Pat King — single · EV 100 mph · LA -4° · 95 ft Yunieski Gurriel — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +7° · 79 ft Hilton Talbot — double · EV 100 mph · LA +37° · 383 ft Dean Milligan — fielders_choice · EV 80 mph · LA -3° · 76 ft Josh Lopez — double · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 270 ft Harry Sainsbury — double · EV 119 mph · LA +16° · 305 ft Didi Bogaerts — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +9° · 97 ft Yunieski Gurriel — error · EV 96 mph · LA -9° · 91 ft Cameron Baccus — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 217 ft Knox Nwachukwu — single · EV 88 mph · LA +13° · 133 ft Dean Milligan — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 105 ft Ivan Stott — single · EV 88 mph · LA -4° · 84 ft Brad Irvine — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft Harry Sainsbury — single · EV 105 mph · LA +22° · 307 ft Yunieski Gurriel — single · EV 96 mph · LA +15° · 190 ft Kingi Frank — single · EV 99 mph · LA -20° · 94 ft Francois Buchanon — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA +8° · 94 ft Dean Milligan — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -30° · 82 ft Hilton Talbot — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 99 ft Pat King — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA +3° · 63 ft Yunieski Gurriel — double · EV 97 mph · LA +16° · 196 ft Hilton Talbot — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +7° · 78 ft
Auckland Tailors — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 7 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
341' 462' 357' Grant Brockie — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +6° · 81 ft Brendon Petratos — double · EV 85 mph · LA +11° · 108 ft Hira Vicelich — single · EV 85 mph · LA -10° · 81 ft Gerardo Quiñones — fly_out · EV 101 mph · LA +57° · 374 ft Alex Young — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA -5° · 66 ft Martin White — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +19° · 159 ft Cam Hernandez — single · EV 84 mph · LA +19° · 175 ft Bruno Reath — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +10° · 92 ft Joe Rivera — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -11° · 49 ft Martin White — single · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 136 ft Alex Young — double · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 126 ft Joe Brock — single · EV 81 mph · LA +4° · 77 ft Joe Rivera — line_out · EV 114 mph · LA -2° · 109 ft Martin White — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Hira Vicelich — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA -10° · 58 ft Joe Brock — single · EV 82 mph · LA +12° · 111 ft Cam Hernandez — single · EV 100 mph · LA -7° · 95 ft Shea Rangi — hr · EV 117 mph · LA +46° · 480 ft Martin White — single · EV 89 mph · LA +15° · 156 ft Alex Young — double · EV 97 mph · LA +46° · 374 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Melbourne Baseball Club
75% deserve-to-win  ·  14.7 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  -2.7 vs expected
contact: 24.1 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 24.0 (-0.1 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-1.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Dean Milligan 88 / +10° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
Didi Bogaerts 88 / +9° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
Yunieski Gurriel 97 / +16° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.82
Josh Lopez 100 / +21° Pull Double 1.3 → 2 +0.68
Ivan Stott 88 / -4° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.57
Auckland Tailors
25% deserve-to-win  ·  8.6 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  -1.6 vs expected
contact: 15.6 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 17.0 (+1.4 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Brendon Petratos 85 / +11° Pull Double 0.6 → 2 +1.39
Alex Young 92 / +11° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Gerardo Quiñones 101 / +57° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Joe Rivera 114 / -2° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.76
Martin White 80 / +19° Oppo Out 0.7 → 0 -0.71
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