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Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers 10, Lima BC 3                 2046-04-17 · #770
at Reyes Ground
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                        1    R    H    E
Lima                    3    3    7    0
Aberdeen               10   10   13    1

LIMA BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Bachan      c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Hamzová     p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Flanaga 3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Balbirn cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Taylor  lf ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
  d-Kuki    nf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  e-Jones   c  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Toone   c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  g-Černý   c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Weber       j  ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   1   0  1.000
Holloway    j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   3   7   1   0   0   2   1   5   1   0  0.269
  2B: Taylor (3).
  CS: Jones (2).
  HBP: Balbirnie (1), Jones 2 (4), Holloway (1).
  GIDP: Kuki (1), Toone (1), Černý (1).
  a-Entered at 3B in the 7th.
  b-Entered at CF in the 3rd.
  c-Entered at LF in the 3rd.
  d-Entered at NF in the 3rd.
  e-Entered at C in the 3rd.
  f-Entered at C in the 4th.
  g-Entered at C in the 7th.

ABERDEEN UNIVERSAL WATCHMAKERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Carusa      c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Ramsey  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Agnew       ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Karas   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Boehme      1b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Gushiken    3b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Mount       rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Pavlenk pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Hughes      cf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
  d-Telford ph ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
  e-Carroll ph ......    1   0   1   0   1   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Moravec ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Hemp    ph ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
  h-Celis   pr ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  i-Root    pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Williams    j  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Zelem       j  ......    2   1   3   0   0   0   2   1   0   2   0  1.500
Kudryavtsev j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0  0.333
Totals                  31  10  13   2   1   0   9   7  11   3   0  0.419
  2B: Boehme (4), Celis (3).
  3B: Carroll (1).
  SB: Ramsey 2 (3).
  CS: Karas (3).
  E: Karas (2).
  GIDP: Hemp (1).
  a-Ran for Carusa in the 1st.
  b-Ran for Agnew in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Mount in the 2nd.
  d-Batted in the 2nd.
  e-Tripled in the 3rd.
  f-Batted in the 3rd.
  g-Batted in the 4th.
  h-Ran for Carroll in the 5th.
  i-Ran for Moravec in the 8th.

LIMA BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hamzová .............    18   14  52%    4    1    1    3    5    0   63    -
Cahill ..............    12    9  33%    3    2    2    3    3    0   43  3-0
Allgeyer ............     4    1   4%    2    3    3    1    1    0   10  3-3
Auda (L, 0-1) .......     4    3  11%    4    4    4    0    2    0   20  3-3

ABERDEEN UNIVERSAL WATCHMAKERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Parris ..............     7    3  11%    4    1    1    0    1    0   28    -
Loftus-Cheek (W, 2-1)     14   15  56%    2    1    1    1    3    0   52  3-0
Fahey (F, 11) .......    10    9  33%    1    1    1    0    1    0   32  1-1

  Batting order: Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers (home) batted first; Lima BC batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM. Weather: 71°F · Wind out · Clear · Humid. seed 266411.
  Powerplays: Lima BC — Kuki NF (O8)
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 6 Oscar Carroll Jordan Ramsey (3B) 0–1
B 23 Chris Boehme Dominic Root (3B) 0–2
B 23 Fabian Telford Radek Karas (3B) 0–3
B 24 Eoghan Hughes Chris Boehme (3B) 0–4
B 24 Papu Celis King Gushiken (3B) 0–5
B 24 Papu Celis Fabian Telford (2B) 0–6
B 24 Jarrod Zelem Eoghan Hughes (3B) 0–7
B 24 Jarrod Zelem Papu Celis (3B) 0–8
B 25 Ramon Williams Dominic Root (3B) 0–9
B 26 Matthew Hemp Jarrod Zelem (3B) 0–10
T 2 Florian Weber Steeven Jones (3B) 1–10
T 15 Florian Weber Donnacha Balbirnie (3B) 2–10
T 21 Daren Bachan Peter Taylor (3B) 3–10
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Reyes Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 317' · CF 419' · RF 333' · 26' wall). Balanced.
Ivy Wall
Lima BC — Batted Balls
22 BIP· 6 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
317' 419' 333' Wall 26' Callum Toone — single · EV 83 mph · LA +21° · 189 ft Steeven Jones — fielders_choice · EV 94 mph · LA -9° · 89 ft Daren Bachan — single · EV 92 mph · LA +8° · 87 ft Florian Weber — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 80 ft Manus Holloway — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 141 ft Masaaki Kuki — single · EV 92 mph · LA +2° · 87 ft Ctibor Černý — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +41° · 238 ft Vlastimil Hamzová — fielders_choice · EV 91 mph · LA +0° · 87 ft Callum Toone — double_play · EV 57 mph · LA -8° · 54 ft Robert Flanagan — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +29° · 233 ft Daren Bachan — line_out · EV 101 mph · LA +11° · 147 ft Peter Taylor — double · EV 92 mph · LA +28° · 281 ft Florian Weber — single · EV 82 mph · LA +14° · 127 ft Manus Holloway — ground_out · EV 59 mph · LA -2° · 56 ft Ctibor Černý — double_play · EV 57 mph · LA +7° · 54 ft Vlastimil Hamzová — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +51° · 330 ft Donnacha Balbirnie — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 75 ft Florian Weber — fielders_choice · EV 62 mph · LA -12° · 59 ft Robert Flanagan — fly_out · EV 101 mph · LA +37° · 390 ft Daren Bachan — error · EV 105 mph · LA +21° · 299 ft Masaaki Kuki — double_play · EV 92 mph · LA +3° · 87 ft Peter Taylor — single · EV 94 mph · LA +16° · 186 ft
Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 10 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
317' 419' 333' Wall 26' Maddux Agnew — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +10° · 128 ft Fabian Telford — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -13° · 72 ft Oscar Carroll — triple · EV 96 mph · LA +17° · 208 ft Ramon Williams — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +15° · 142 ft František Moravec — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +7° · 87 ft Matthew Hemp — double_play · EV 59 mph · LA +5° · 56 ft Papu Celis — single · EV 78 mph · LA +3° · 74 ft Jarrod Zelem — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +19° · 159 ft Maddux Agnew — single · EV 80 mph · LA +21° · 169 ft King Gushiken — single · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Fabian Telford — single · EV 82 mph · LA +14° · 125 ft František Moravec — fielders_choice · EV 82 mph · LA -10° · 78 ft Matthew Hemp — infield_single · EV 67 mph · LA +1° · 63 ft Papu Celis — double · EV 92 mph · LA +43° · 338 ft Jarrod Zelem — single · EV 80 mph · LA +16° · 136 ft Jarrod Zelem — single · EV 76 mph · LA +0° · 72 ft Jarrod Zelem — single · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 190 ft Chris Boehme — double · EV 97 mph · LA +32° · 343 ft Eoghan Hughes — single · EV 96 mph · LA +24° · 272 ft Igor Kudryavtseva — single · EV 91 mph · LA -4° · 86 ft Matthew Hemp — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +34° · 215 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Lima BC
47% deserve-to-win  ·  8.8 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -5.8 vs expected
contact: 13.4 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-5.4 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Robert Flanagan 101 / +37° Pull Out 2.1 → 0 -2.09
Daren Bachan 105 / +21° Center Reached on Error 1.6 → 0 -1.56
Daren Bachan 101 / +11° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.26
Peter Taylor 92 / +28° Oppo Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Manus Holloway 76 / +19° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.60
Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers
53% deserve-to-win  ·  9.2 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  +0.8 vs expected
contact: 13.1 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 17.0 (+3.9 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Oscar Carroll 96 / +17° Pull Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.68
Maddux Agnew 95 / +10° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
Matthew Hemp 67 / +1° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.85
Papu Celis 92 / +43° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
King Gushiken 76 / -14° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
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